Jake White: Bok plots, Pollard's big ask and Eddie Jones

The one thing that struck me about the Springboks versus Ireland game – and I’m working the basis of the article I wrote about skill versus power – is that Ireland really like to start quickly. Their aim is to get points on the board early. If you watch their warm-ups pre-game, they are designed so that the hit the ground running when the whistle goes. They do it really well, and I see Leinster regularly doing it in the URC, and it is very difficult to stop.

However, in those first five lineouts Ireland didn’t create any pressure and the Springboks were able to gain a foothold in the game. Wearing your South African hat, the narrative since the game has been, ‘oh, well we missed our kicks, we didn’t finish those plays, or we missed a couple of opportunities’, but what Ireland will be looking at how they didn’t take those opportunities; how they weren’t clinical enough, switched-on enough, call it what you want, to win the game comfortably. In any other games they’ve started, they’d have converted those five metre lineouts three out of five times. Leinster, Munster or Ireland, that’s what they base their game on. That is why it is such an intriguing debate post game.

The Springboks said they got a lot out of it, by having a chance, even at the end of the game, to win outright at the last lineout but the maul was turned over. The margins are so tight and that’s what makes it such an interesting next game if they face each other again in this tournament. I read somewhere one of the Irish players saying he wouldn’t be surprised if those two sides meet each other again in the final. A lot of people would agree with that sentiment and be happy, because the standard of the game was really high. It was like two heavyweight boxers slugging it out in a classic and people desperate for a rematch.

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On the flipside, a guy like Paul O’Connell, would have been looking at those first couple of lineouts and saying, ‘if we had those all over again, and we’re accurate, there’s no reason why we couldn’t have created a buffer between us and South Africa’. It depends on which side of the fence, you’re on, doesn’t it? Yet the fact remains that the Springboks haven’t beaten Ireland since 2016, which is quite something.

Looking ahead to the Tonga game this weekend, the big talking point is Handre Pollard back in the 10 shirt. It’s a good game for him to play because he should get a lot of ball with the forwards we have. They should give him a decent platform. I don’t think it will be a pressure situation from minute one, but I expect it will take him time to find his feet. It’s a tough ask for Handre because if he plays well, there will be an expectation for him to start the quarter-final against France, which is a massive step up in pressure. That’s why they pay the coaches the big bucks, to make those tough decisions. The pressure is white-hot out in France. Look at Manie Libbok. He’s kicked pretty well in the URC for the Stormers but he’s struggled off the tee in Test matches. That’s what pressure does to you. The fields are no different, the balls are no different, the conditions are no different but having the hopes of a nation on your shoulders can get to you. Handre has been in this position before, but the scrutiny will be about how quickly he can adapt. Tonga will want to put pressure on him if they can, because he’s been out for so long.

The best 10 in the game is Johnny Sexton, but even he needed a few games against Romania and Tonga to find his feet, and I expect Handre will be the same.

Someone asked me whether I think players are now playing for places in the Test side, but disagreed. If a player is doing that, he is at risk of playing outside the structure or gameplan of what the coaches want. The coaching staff will have a clear idea of what side they want to put out in a knock-out game, so I don’t believe one game is going to change four years of preparation. Tonga is about getting the job done, not playing yourself into the Test side.

The other rumour you see doing the rounds is that the Springboks threw the game to avoid the All Blacks, but you could say New Zealand are going to win the World Cup because they threw the game to France. You can use any scenario to back up your debate, but I don’t buy it. South Africa will not be panicking because they were the first side to lose a game and go on to win the competition, and anyway, there is no easy way to win a World Cup and that’s what makes this tournament so intriguing. There will be so many stories to come out in the next couple of weeks. I’m speaking from experience, too, not just saying that. In 1995, Andre Joubert had to go into a hyperbaric chamber for a hand injury incurred against Samoa. Then there was Chester Williams who came in for the suspended Pieter Hendriks, and Hendriks himself scoring a try at Newlands against the World Champion Wallabies at the time. Expect plenty more twists and turns.

Selection-wise, at hooker, they can’t afford for Bongi to get injured, so they’ve rested him and hooker is one position where they want to see who is the best back-up in that position, Deon (Fourie) or Marco (van Staden).

Once they navigate Tonga, I know full focus will turn to France. Playing Les Bleus at any time is tough. Whether it’s at the end of their season, a mid-year tour to South Africa, or in November, they are a team that can beat any side, if they’re in the mood. What is in their favour is there is a huge groundswell of support from within. I haven’t been out in France, but what I’ve picked up is that the atmosphere created for that team is unbelievable. I’m suspecting that if Antoine Dupont runs out in a facemask the roar will be loud enough to be heard from miles around. If you remember Alexandre Dumas’ classic novel, he’s their man in the Iron Mask, and that hero status is worth a few points in itself. We know Julian Marchand is coming back and it wouldn’t surprise me if Paul Willemse is working very hard to make it back. Get a few of those players back on the field and it suddenly looks like a very intimidating French team.

Obviously, one of the biggest stories from the Pool stages is the sad exit of Australia. For me, their biggest problem is confidence. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Wallaby side with less of a swagger. As a nation, they are fighters and uber-competitive, so they will be hurting to ship 40 points to a Welsh side who had its own problems six months ago. As a coach, you often talk about taking years to build confidence up, but it can go overnight if you don’t get the rub of the ball. They have Portugal and some people are saying if they score early, they could put pressure on the Wallabies. That’s unthinkable.

I’m not sure what is going on in Eddie’s mind, but he could worried about the talent at his disposal. He knows the Lions are coming in 2025 and he’s worrying he doesn’t have the talent to turn them into contenders quickly enough, so he’s panicking. Eddie’s been around the block but it’s a far bigger job than even he realised. In hindsight, he was naïve to leave out the Michael Hooper and Quade Cooper and everyone associated with Australian rugby will want the season to end now so they can regroup and start from scratch. They have to get the show back on the road.