1
A heavily rotated South Africa side will know that they have a job to do on Sunday in Marseille against Tonga after the events of last weekend at the Stade de France.
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Tonga will be no pushovers by any stretch, but after both Ireland and Scotland beat the Pacific Islanders with a bonus point, it has now become a matter of urgency for Jacques Nienaber’s side to do the same given the various permutations in Pool B in the final weekend- a weekend which the Springboks can only watch and hope as Ireland and Scotland face each other.
Journalist Joe Naughton recently outlined the multiple permutations in the pool going into the final two weekends. Should the Springboks beat Tonga with a bonus point and Scotland do the same against Romania this weekend (which Ireland have off), there are five possibilities heading into the match between Scotland and Ireland at the Stade de France in the final round of action (which South Africa have off).
The first possibility is where Scotland beat Ireland with neither side getting a bonus point. In that situation, South Africa would top the pool with 15 points, and Scotland and Ireland would both be level on 14 points, whereby Scotland would progress due to their head-to-head record with Ireland.
The second possibility is where Scotland fail to earn a bonus point in beating Ireland, and also fail to prevent Ireland from picking up a bonus point in their loss. In that situation, Ireland and South Africa would both finish on 15 points and Ireland would progress at the top of the group due to their head-to-head with the Boks.
The third permutation is where Scotland score four tries in a win over Ireland and prevent them from picking up a bonus point of any kind. In that case, Scotland would be level with South Africa on 15 points, and will progress in second place due to their head-to-head.
The most interesting scenario of all would be if Scotland beat Ireland with a bonus point, but Ireland manage to pick up one bonus point in their loss. That would leave all three teams tied in Pool B on 15 points, and as they would all have a win over one another, it would go down to points difference.
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Should Ireland win, draw, or manage to pick up two bonus points in a loss, they would go through as pool winners.
In the event where South Africa fail to score four tries against Tonga this weekend, Scotland and Ireland could both progress should Scotland win with a bonus point next weekend.
Exciting group permutations for Ireland at Rugby World Cup 2023, the final permutation would be crazy.
If South Africa beat Tonga with a BP and Scotland beats Romania with a BP below are permutations.
1. If Scotland beats Ireland, denying us BP, both teams on 14 pts, Scotland…
— Joe Naughton (@JoeNaConnacht) September 27, 2023
This requires a lot of mental gymnastics but it also means that anything can happen and everything is to play for going into the final few matches of the pool stages.
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Rugby World Cup
Pool A
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
France
3
3
0
0
13
2
Italy
2
2
0
0
10
3
New Zealand
2
1
1
0
5
4
Uruguay
3
1
2
0
5
5
Namibia
4
0
4
0
0
Pool B
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
Ireland
3
3
0
0
14
2
South Africa
3
2
1
0
10
3
Scotland
2
1
1
0
5
4
Tonga
2
0
2
0
0
5
Romania
2
0
2
0
0
Pool C
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
Wales
3
3
0
0
14
2
Fiji
2
1
1
0
6
3
Australia
3
1
2
0
6
4
Georgia
2
0
1
1
2
5
Portugal
2
0
1
1
2
Pool D
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
England
3
3
0
0
14
2
Samoa
2
1
1
0
5
3
Japan
2
1
1
0
5
4
Argentina
2
1
1
0
4
5
Chile
3
0
3
0
0
Comments on RugbyPass
All of the Moderna law changes have been to slow the game down, playing into the hands of SA and the north. Incentivising boring, negative rugby. Brilliant changes. Speed up the game.
11 Go to commentsImagine you kick to the lineout, they give away a free kick, you have a great chance at a scrum, sorry sir you have to tap and go. Ridiculous
11 Go to commentsWhile I believe that the Crusaders do not deserve a spot in the playoffs, every single team would be worried to play them no matter where on the table they are. For example, they have the potential to knock out the Blues at Eden Park. They are the Springboks in Super Rugby in that they know exactly how to play knockout footy and have the pedigree and experience to do it. Something is just not quite right with that team this year. Fakatava is prone to to the odd brain explosion and can kick away good ball in bad positions. His work around the ruck and breakdown is a standout. Is he better than Finlay Christie? I’m not sure. TJ Perenara and Cortez Ratima should get two of the spots in the ABs squad. Aumua has so much potential but the midfield is quite well stocked with Jordie, ALB, Tupaea, and Ioane as well as Billy Proctor who is in top form. Aumua would be battling a spot with Tupaea and Proctor.
1 Go to commentsWhy do some Bok fans get so defensive when people have opinions on how the game should be played? Is it really necessary to take it as a personal attack on SA every time?
11 Go to commentsMost crazy rule is when attacking player has to release but defender does not. Stop the defender doing that by saying hands off. That way fender would not kill the ball. Madness and crazy
80 Go to commentsMinicamp rules include no-pads and no tackling.
1 Go to commentsToulouse has enough quality players so no headaches 😁 Choco is rarely a starting centre. Throughout this championship there have been far worse actions that were never called… too many rules, too many rule changes, too many inconsistencies, too many angry fans. I'm not surprised rugby does not attract new spectators, how could they understand 🤣
6 Go to commentsAh yes Andy with his “Goode” views. Oke might as well come out and say it, “I like seeing South African scrums depowered in order to give the rest of the world a chance”. Somehow he thinks World Rugby always knew about calling scrums from marks and it just so happened to coincide with Damien Willemse’s call that they decided to change the rules. Ah come on, if he can't see it then he needs prescription glasses. No ways, they are doing this for the betterment of Rugby. They want to clamp down on Rassie’s innovative skills than encouraging coaches to think outside of the box to try new things. What they can't count on is what Rassie will plan next. I almost get the impression that once Rassie retires World Rugby is going to be scrabbling around trying to find their identity. Currently set at ARP (Anti-Rassie Party). Although I don't really care in that regard because they always a RWC step behind.
11 Go to commentsWow ten years since they had a backing and more from the paying public I’d also mention that as a blues man and in walking distance to the garden I’d say that this team and Vern Cotter have got us dreaming beautiful thoughts and the merit is there from numbers 1 to 23 but we would like to think this is the new dna for the ABs and a pack weighing 940kg dry y not I hasten to add it seems patty has to stay fit cause he is the driver the main driver and they follow plus the pipe man H Plummer is conducting his own orchestra ….. Beethoven anybody
1 Go to commentsJuicy stuff well covered I’d go as far as to say that the referee was a key component in keeping it a tasty spectacle
1 Go to commentsCotter has added that steel that has been missing. Let's see if it will carry until the Finals… Come on the Blues ….
2 Go to commentsAndy Goode just loves to be controversial. Its boring. Let’s all stop reading.
11 Go to commentsYou have got to consider that if the situation was flipped and the French were held to a salary cap with no English equivalent, the English would laugh in their faces and tell them to get over it. As for Leinster (as a fan), the central contract system is a dream but is guilty of cutting out the other 3 provinces. At the end of the day, it comes across outside of the English border that the Premiership is drowning and trying to take everyone else with it rather than adapt. The English lose, the English want new rules. We've seen this repeat (and once it even led to the current Champions Cup) You make many good and informed points, but if the flip was on the other flop, it wouldn't be Rugby’s problem I suspect - it would be a French one.
18 Go to commentsSeems to have been a bright start but it tailed off. To win the big matches you have to get used to putting your foot on the throttle and your opponent’s necks in an 80 minutes performance which is what the All Blacks were renowned for. An example in the Women’s game is England v Ireland in the 6N match played at Twickenham in April. Watch on YouTube.
1 Go to commentsBobby has been a first grade bonehead since high school. Like a true Cape Tonian, his own reflection is more important than anything else.
1 Go to commentsNo comment on the textbook red card for Ramm that was just ignored? Amazing that
4 Go to commentsThese rule changes have been implemented with good intentions, but much like every other rule change focus on isolated symptoms instead of the root cause. If you cannot croc roll, and cannot risk any head contact with a front on clear out, it is not clear how you are supposed to lawfully clear someone out who is attempting a jackal. This will backfire massively and lead to substantially more kicking. Teams will simply not want to take the ball into contact. Or it will lead to even more dangerous methods to clear players out who are over the ball. I much prefer having the set piece on a 30 second shot clock over no scrum on a short arm infringement. Resets are not a problem in themselves, but 90 second water and tactics breaks before every scrum are a big problem. Trainers constantly coming on to the field to help players pull their socks up and delaying the game are a problem. DuPont law was a blight on the game and should have been changed the day after it was first implemented.
80 Go to commentsAh yes, the opinion of Andy Goode… Andy Goode, the man who knows what some of the Irish players said to Eben Etzebeth after the QF, better than what Eben himself knows. And, judging by this piece, the Grandmaster of clichés.
11 Go to commentsI think this is a fair view. As a South African I am concerned about the depowering of the scrum but let’s be honest, until the SA vs FRA quarter many people didn’t even know you could take a scrum from a free kick. As you say it’s going to come down to interpretation… until then we don’t really know how this is going to impact the game. That would lead to my own objection. Do the unknowns of changing a law outweigh the cons of said law. With such an obscure law that most people had never heard of, one that had never really had an impact on the game in the first place is it worth changing to invite so much uncertainty. Better the devil you know then the devil you don’t as it were…
11 Go to comments162 comments so far and counting. i didn't realize that rugby fans are on the way to join the football brothers. what is the point to share personal opinion only to get all this shi*? it seems IRB bosses are doing the great job by killing the spirit of the game both on and outside the pitch. too sad, indeed. btw, was there anything on eben’s point of view from the boys in green, who he mentioned?
164 Go to comments