Paul the Super Rugby Oracle’s Round 8 Tips: Can The Reds Do It Again?
Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
In the end, Round 7 went largely the way everyone expected, although a lot of games were far closer than they should have been. The only big surprise was the Reds win over the Highlanders in Queensland, which ruined an otherwise perfect week for Super Rugby tipping oracle Paul Neazor. 6/7 on the week brings his season record to 41/55 and raises his success percentage by one point to 74%. Here are his predictions for Round 8’s smorgasbord of Super Rugby.
Crusaders vs Jaguares
The Crusaders completed a good tour with a very scruffy win, while the Jaguares are finding Super Rugby tours can be a grind, and their odyssey is nowhere near at an end. Many expected them to go quite well this season but they’ve battled just like every other expansion team in competition history. The Crusaders need to understand that they can’t be as careless as at Perth again, and that hanging onto the football rather than booting it away for no good reason might be quick roads towards earning a superior position in this match. If they get that right they should go on to win comfortably, even if the margin may not blow out until the dying stages.
Pick: Crusaders (13 and over)
Rebels vs Hurricanes
The Rebels are travelling well and currently sit second in the Australian conference, but that’s due to the weakness of the group as much as any superior ability from the Melbourne lads. The Hurricanes are just starting to get their act together and have put 40 points on each of their last three opponents. When they start rolling they can be formidable and they’re starting to roll a little more regularly. I think the Rebels are overachieving just at present and they aren’t good enough to get close to a playoff spot, and they’re likely to have that pointed out this Friday.
Pick: Hurricanes (13 and over)
Cheetahs vs Sunwolves
The Cheetahs beat the Sunwolves at Singapore by a point after seemingly not taking them all that seriously. They haven’t won since, but also haven’t got a hiding in that time. The Sunwolves haven’t won since then either and have been close a couple of times, but they got thoroughly done over last week at Cape Town. For many of them this week will be their first experience of altitude (while Bloemfontein isn’t high veldt it’s still high enough to notice a difference). The Cheetahs will really target this game, and most likely do it through their big forward pack. I’m going for the home side to win comfortably.
Pick: Cheetahs (13 and over)
Blues vs Sharks
A cursory glance at the tables might suggest the Sharks are strong and going well, while the Blues are average and struggling, but it’s not quite as simple as that. For all their big names, the Sharks aren’t showing much on attack. The Blues are defending well, and started looking like the business on attack last week. Reiko Ioane played as if he meant it for the first time, while Ihaia West is getting more comfortable running the show. I rate the Blues a good chance to end this ten-match losing run they’ve had against the Sharks over the last decade. From what I’ve seen in the last few weeks they should be the better side, and could be comfortably the better side.
Pick: Blues (13 and over)
Waratahs v Brumbies
This is early to be playing a return match of what should be one of the most important matches in the Australian group, but on 2016 form it won’t live up to pre-season expectations. The Brumbies – even without David Pocock – are going well enough, while the Waratahs simply are not. The ‘Tahs have any number of issues that need fixing but a creaking tight five, careless handling in the backs, average goal-kicking and the inability to get Israel Folau into the game are high on the list. So I’m picking the Brumbies, who will be steady-as-she-goes, to buck the 20-year trend and take the win on Waratahs soil.
Pick: Brumbies (13 and over)
Bulls vs Reds
The Bulls haven’t played anyone who matters for weeks; the closest they have come was the Sharks, who should have won but for Joe Pietersen’s inexplicable miss from straight in front, and they’ve played some dire footy in that time. The Reds are still not a playoff team, but they do have two or three things going for them: a very steady set piece, a rugged defence that’s getting better, and a blossoming young playmaker in Jake McIntyre who is actually a good player despite what the Courier Mail might say about him. So I’m going out on a limb and picking the Reds. If they were good enough to crack it against the Highlanders, they’re good enough to take the Bulls.
Pick: Reds (12 and under)
Lions vs Stormers
Take a deep breath – this is the first of two meetings that will decide which of these sides is the better-placed South African outfit at the end of the season. Who would have picked it? The Lions are travelling well, while the Stormers have that big pack and a serviceable backline that has been grinding out wins – not pretty ones, but wins nonetheless. But they also have issues at flyhalf (down to number three at the moment) and lock, where Eben Etzebeth is injured again, and the Lions don’t seem to have many worries about much. Since the game is at Johannesburg I’m going for the home side; they play a different style at Ellis Park and understand it, and I think it may just be a few points too much for the Stormers.
Pick: Lions (12 and under)
Comments on RugbyPass
It couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
25 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
13 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
25 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
13 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
77 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
2 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
1 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
13 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
12 Go to commentsI like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
13 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
13 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
13 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. At least Andrew Kellaway is like “Woah, yeah it’s great, but settle down there guys” having endured years of the Aussie media, fans, and often their players getting ahead of themselves only to fall flat on their faces. Have the “We'll win the Bledisloe for sure this year!” headlines started yet? It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
13 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
44 Go to commentsThanks, Nick. We (Seanny Maloney, Brett and I) just discussed Charlie as a potential Wallaby No 8, and wondered if he has truly realised how big he is in contact (and whether he can add 5 kg w/o slowing down). Your scouting report confirms our suspicions he has the materiel. No one knows if he has the mentality (as Johann van Graan said this week about CJ, Duane and Alfie B) to carry 10-15 times a game.
57 Go to commentsHe would be a great player for the Stormers, Dobbo should approach the guy.
3 Go to commentsGood article. A few years back when he was playing for the Cheetahs, he was a quiet standout for exactly the seasons stated here. I occasionally get to see his games in the UK, and he has become a more complete player and in many ways like an Irish player. His work ethic is so suitable to the Leinster game. I wonder if Rassie would have him listed somewhere.
3 Go to comments