Outlook is bleak for England but the RPI offers one area of hope against New Zealand
Both England and New Zealand started their November series with wins, but they now face considerably greater challenges to keep those streaks going, as they meet at Twickenham on Saturday.
England narrowly bested South Africa last weekend, where luck, as much as resilience, helped them over the line, whilst the All Blacks sent a largely developmental side out against Japan, defeating the Cherry Blossoms, 69-31, in Tokyo.
Will the lack of rugby for New Zealand’s front-liners energise them or will it have allowed a measure of rust to creep in? As for England, have they learned – and been able to put right – enough lessons from their outing against the Springboks to genuinely challenge the world’s number one side?
These are questions we won’t know the answers to until the whistle blows at Twickenham on Saturday, but the RugbyPass Index certainly provides a revealing comparison of the two sides.
Here’s how they stack up.
Front row – Ben Moon (87), Dylan Hartley (71) and Kyle Sinckler (70) vs Karl Tu’inukuafe (85), Codie Taylor (92) and Owen Franks (89)
Second row – Maro Itoje (93) and George Kruis (88) vs Sam Whitelock (86) and Brodie Retallick (88)
Back row – Brad Shields (72), Sam Underhill (55) and Mark Wilson (64) vs Liam Squire (86), Ardie Savea (93) and Kieran Read (92)
Half-backs – Ben Youngs (79) and Owen Farrell (92) vs Aaron Smith (84) and Beauden Barrett (91)
Centres – Ben Te’o (61) and Henry Slade (79) vs Sonny Bill Williams (70) and Jack Goodhue (91)
Back three – Jonny May (80), Chris Ashton (82) and Elliot Daly (87) vs Rieko Ioane (87), Ben Smith (88) and Damian McKenzie (91)
Overall XVs – England 1,160 vs New Zealand, 1,313
Bench – Jamie George (88), Alec Hepburn (67), Harry Williams (83), Charlie Ewels (64), Courtney Lawes (77), Danny Care (67), George Ford (72) and Jack Nowell (90) vs Dane Coles (74), Ofa Tuungafasi (75), Nepo Laulala (78), Scott Barrett (92), Matt Todd (90), TJ Perenara (87), Richie Mo’unga (93) and Ryan Crotty (83)
Overall – England 1,768 vs New Zealand, 1,985
That the All Blacks’ lowest scores on the Index are offered up by Williams and Coles, who sit at 70 and 74 respectively, tells you all you need to know about the quality of the side at Steve Hansen’s disposal. Both players comfortably offer more impact and ability than those numbers suggest, and those figures are a product of their recent injuries.
With the New Zealand starting XV averaging a whopping 87.5, it is clearly a monumental task in front of England. In fact, only Itoje, Kruis and Farrell sit above that average in the England XV, whilst George and Nowell are the only two on the bench to do so.
England do post competitive numbers in the second row and their half-backs and back three are not too far behind their opposite numbers, but it is only in the replacement front rowers where England really eek out any kind of advantage over New Zealand.
England did upset the RPI odds last week, by beating a Springbok side which had them bested on the Index, but that disparity was far smaller than the one which New Zealand enjoy going into this contest.
With an advantage of over 150 points in the starting XV, a gap which grows to over 200 when the benches are also included, England look to have a mountain to climb on Saturday.
Watch: An introduction to the RugbyPass Index.
Comments on RugbyPass
“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
3 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
2 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
3 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
3 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
3 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
2 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
4 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to commentsJake White is a brilliant coach and a master in the press. This is another masterclass in media relations and PR but its also a very narrow view with arguments that dont always hold water. White wants his team to win, he wants the best players in SA and wants his team competitive. You however have to face up to the reality of a poor exchange rate and big clubs with big budgets. SA Rugby cant compete and unless it can find more money SA players will keep leaving regardless of Springbok eligibility and this happened in 2015 - 2017. Also rugby is not cricket. Cricket has 3 formats and T20 cricket is where the money is at. When it comes to club vs country the IPL is king but that wont happen because the international calendar does not clash with the club calendar in rugby. So the argument about rugby going down the same path as cricket is really a non-starter
22 Go to commentsNZ rugby seem not to have learnt anything from professional rugby. Super rugby was dying and SA left before they died with the competition. SA rugby did a u turn on their approach to international players playing overseas and such players are now selected for Bok teams. As much as each country would love to retain their players playing in local competitions, this is the way the world is evolving my friends. Move with it or stay 20 years behind the times. One more thing. NZ rugby hierarchy think they are the big cheese. Take a more humble approach guys. You do not seem to have your players best interests at heart.
3 Go to commentsBeaches? In Cardiff? Where?
1 Go to commentsHe is right , the Crusaders will be a threat. Scott Barrett, ( particularly), Fergus Burke , Codie Taylor, ( from sabbatical) etc due back soon for the Crusaders. There are others like Zach Gallagher too. People can right the Crusaders off, Top 8 , here we come !!
1 Go to commentsWe will always struggle for money to match the other sides but the least the WRU can do is invest properly in Welsh rugby. Too much has been squandered on vanity projects like the hotel and roof walk amongst others which will never see a massive return. Hanging the 4 pro sides out to dry over the last decade is now coming back to bite the WRU financially as well as on the pitch. You reap what you sow.
1 Go to commentsWhat do you get if you cross a doctor with a fish? A plastic sturgeon
14 Go to commentsWhat happened to feleti Kaitu’u? Hasnt played in a while right?
1 Go to commentsGregor I just can’t agree with you. You are trying to find something that just isn’t there. Jordie Barrett has signed until 2028. By the end of that he would have spent probably 11-12 years on Super Rugby and you say he can’t possibly have one season playing somewhere else. It is absurd. What about this scenario, the NZR play hard ball and he decides to leave and play overseas. How would that affect the competition. There seems to be an agenda by certain journalists to push certain agendas and don’t like it when it’s not to their liking. I fully support the NZR on this. Gregor needs to get a life.
3 Go to commentsHope he stays as believe he can do a great job.
1 Go to comments