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Number-crunching the final weekend of the tight Top 14
As the Top 14 season enters its final week, the playoff permutations are so complex they would have Pierre de Fermat, of brain-munching theorem fame, reaching for the headache tablets. James Harrington has done the maths, so you don’t have to.
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It’s safe to assume that, with one round of the regular Top 14 season remaining, five teams have booked their place in the end-of-season playoffs.
But the competition is so tight that there’s only one dead-rubber match – 12th-placed Toulouse vs already-relegated Bayonne – in the final seven fixtures.
This season’s surprise package, La Rochelle, have a semi-final berth in the bag. Clermont and Montpellier are fighting it out for a bye week in the playoffs, safe in the knowledge that whoever misses out has the luxury of a home quarter-final.
But second-placed Clermont, who have one eye on next weekend’s Champions Cup final, cannot afford a slip-up against the league leaders. Montpellier are chasing hard, and would leapfrog into second – with its quarterfinal bye-week bonus – if Clermont mess up at home this weekend.
Toulon, in fourth, are looking to hold off the challenge of fifth-placed Castres for the still-very-much-at-stake second home quarterfinal.
Technically, the latter’s playoff place is not yet assured, but denying it involves the sort of maths that suggests time travel is possible … and nearest rivals Racing and Stade overturning a 150-plus points difference deficit.
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To all intents and purposes, then, there is one available playoff place – which comes with an automatic Champions Cup slot. Six teams could claim it at the death. Here’s how:
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Racing 92 (current position: 6th, 58pts)
Final match: Home vs Bordeaux
Position is nine-tenths of the law – and Racing hold on to that all-important sixth place. They are the only side whose future is entirely in their hands. But it’s close. A bonus-point win over Bordeaux guarantees the defending Top 14 champions are in the playoffs no matter what anyone else does. A win without a try-scoring bonus would be enough if either Stade or Pau fail to pick up bonus-point wins. Even a draw would be fine, if Stade or Pau do not win – and Lyon fail to pick up a bonus-point win at Grenoble.
Stade Francais (current position: 7th, 58pts)
Final match: Away vs Montpellier
Stade need to win. A bonus point would be useful, too. Five points from their final match of the season would mean Racing would have to match Stade’s points tally to hold on to sixth. A four-point win would only be good enough if Racing cannot match the result. But winning could be a problem for Stade. They are at Montpellier, who have compelling reasons of their own to win big.
Pau (current position: 8th, 57pts)
Final match: Away vs Toulon
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An admittedly unlikely win at Toulon would be good enough for Pau, if neither Racing or Stade win. If that does happen, the plucky side from southwest France need a bonus point win. And if the two capital sides pick up a five-point win, it’s all over.
Lyon (current position: 9th, 55pts)
Final match: Away vs Grenoble
Okay, now it gets complicated. Lyon will leap up to sixth in the Top 14 if they hammer already-relegated near-rivals Grenoble and pick up a try-scoring bonus, Racing and Pau fail to win, and Stade lose at Montpellier. They could also sneak in if they pick up a no-bonus win at Grenoble, Racing and Stade lose, Pau do no better than draw and Brive beat Castres without a bonus point. Got that?
Brive (current position: 10th, 54pts)
Final match: Home vs Castres Olympique
Brive need to beat Castres – with or without a try-scoring bonus – and hope that Racing 92 and Stade Francais lose by more than five, Pau do not win at Toulon, and Lyon don’t hammer Grenoble away.
Bordeaux (current position: 11th, 53pts)
Final match: Away v Racing 92
First things first: Bordeaux will be out of the reckoning with anything less than a five-pointer at Racing 92. Then, they need to hope that Racing and Stade lose by more than five points; Lyon don’t win; Brive don’t match them with a five-pointer against Castres; and Pau come away from Toulon with no more than a losing bonus point.
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Comments on RugbyPass
Lets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
10 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
10 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
6 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to comments