'Not bulletproof': Leinster's potentially fatal Champions Cup flaw exposed

Premier Sports analyst Ross Hamilton believes that favourites Leinster are by no means “bulletproof” heading into their Investec Champions Cup semi-final with Northampton Saints.

In a repeat of last season’s semi-final, Saints will be looking to exact revenge on a side that they came within 3 points of upsetting 12 months earlier.

For their part, Leo Cullen’s men are chasing a fifth Champions Cup crown to match Toulouse’s record, but it’s now seven years since they last lifted the trophy.

Their European form this season has admittedly been commanding. They’ve scored 142 unanswered points in their last three matches in the competition, but Phil Dowson’s Northampton arrive with momentum of their own and a young, attacking core led by Fin Smith, Tommy Freeman and Henry Pollock.

“Leinster are not bulletproof. It’s a high-risk, high-reward strategy from Leinster in attack,” said Hamilton ahead of Saturday’s match-up. “If you look at their output; Leinster make the most carries, most metres, second most line-breaks, third most offloads and most passes and have the fastest average ruck speed – which is a huge metric in the game these days. However, this comes at a cost.

Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins

4

Draws

0

Wins

1

Average Points scored

36

22

First try wins

100%

Home team wins

60%

“Leinster actually make a lot of errors and concede a lot of turnovers, they’re in the bottom five out of 24 teams for total turnovers conceded. If we link that to Northampton Saints who like to score from broken play, this could play right into the visitors’ hands.”

Leinster haven’t won the competition since 2018, despite reaching five finals in the last seven seasons.

“Saints stats show they also score early in the game – the majority in the first twenty minutes. And as an attack-minded team they score incredibly quickly. They’re doing such a good job at scoring on the very first phase without even a ruck – they have scored 13 in the competition from first phase, second only to Bordeaux.”

Northampton’s backline, including England fly-half Fin Smith and electric wing Tommy Freeman, has been at the heart of their free-flowing attack, while young flanker Henry Pollock leads the competition for turnovers.

“If Northampton get those chinks of light, they are really going to have to take them straight away,” said Hamilton. “They’re good at getting entries into the red zone and try success is high – 4th best in the competition and better than Leinster.

“However, they are arguably up against the very best defence in the competition.”

“Leinster are still the most controlled outfit in the competition with only 7 tries conceded this season in the Champions Cup. And the middle 40 minutes is where they turn the screw – with most tries scored and just two conceded in that stretch.”

“What stands out is Leinster’s defensive red zone success – with only 15 per cent of entries into their 22 resulting in a try. That’s exceptional. Leinster also limit entries into their 22 very well – just 7.7 per game.

“If teams are looking to score on 40/50/60 per cent of their entries, and Leinster are limiting all their opposition to just 15 per cent – that is frighteningly good. That suggests Northampton are not going to have many opportunities to score – and if they do they’re going to have to take them.”

“These two teams are very different in terms of their styles and where they score their tries from. Leinster score the most tries from set-piece with very structured play, they want to control the narrative. They’re happy to soak up pressure and then strike from set piece, especially off lineout where they lead the competition in tries scored.

“Northampton are the very opposite; they are playing heads-up, broken-field rugby and it’s working in the Champions Cup. They’ve scored 18 tries from broken play ie turnovers, kick receipts and those quick tap penalties. They will want to attack Leinster in a broken field and that’s something to look out for.”

“Jordie Barrett has made the most carries (93) in the competition for the 5th most metres (410) so look out for him getting Leinster over the gainline.

“Tommy Freeman has made the 2nd most line breaks (15) of any player, he’s going to be Saints’ key danger man.

“Henry Pollock has made the most turnovers in the tournament (15) with Caelen Doris making the 2nd most (12) so expect a huge battle at the breakdown particularly from those two.”

Ross Hamilton is part of the Premier Sports team bringing live action and analysis from the Investec Champions Cup semi-final between Leinster and Northampton Saints this Saturday. With a full-hour of build-up from the Aviva Stadium, join the Premier Sports team of Martin Bayfield, Pat Lam, Lawrence Dallaglio, John Barclay, Andy Goode, Miles Harrison, Ryan Wilson and analyst Ross Hamilton for this must-watch international club rugby showdown. All the action starts at 4.30pm on Premier Sports 1. To watch visit www.premiersports.com.