Multiple Welshmen facing their World Cup endgame as Gatland's depth charts deepen
Warren Gatland was coy when asked if his current squad was the strongest of his Wales reign ahead of their 10-try defeat of Tonga. “I guess it probably is,” came the head coach’s response.
He had been a tad more bold just over a week previously when he told the 23 players selected to face Australia that they constituted the most robust matchday squad of his decade in charge.
In light of a first triumph over the Wallabies in 10 years and a comprehensive victory against Tonga, Wales will welcome South Africa back to Cardiff next weekend on an eight-game winning run, targeting a November clean sweep. It’s becoming increasingly difficult not to get swept up by the goodwill swirling around the Welsh national team.
Wales had previously struggled against tier two opposition in November under Gatland. In the 10 years since the Kiwi coach took charge his side has lost to Samoa, drawn with Fiji and needed a last-minute drop goal to beat Japan in what is supposed to be their easiest assignment of the autumn series.
Four of their six November wins against tier two teams prior to Saturday, meanwhile, had been secured by seven points or less.
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So, that Gatland was able to make 14 changes to the side that beat Australia and still watch the second string secure Wales’ biggest win since a 72-18 defeat of Japan at the 2007 Rugby World Cup is a big positive. That the bench had such an impact, moreover, highlights the depth of quality at his disposal.
Gatland and his coaching panel have been wise over the last 18 months, using the absence of front-line players due to British and Irish Lions commitments, rest or injuries to blood a new wave of talent.
Since Wales departed on their 2017 summer tour, 22 players have been handed Test debuts. In that same time period, England have blooded 19 players – albeit 10 in the first Test of their 2017 tour of Argentina – and Ireland 16.
What Wales have done well is to retain those players in and around the squad, building competition and a number of them – Seb Davies, Steff Evans, Aaron Wainwright, Owen Watkin and Tomos Williams – were to the fore as Tonga were seen off in Cardiff.
Shaun Edwards will not have been pleased with the drop of in intensity in the 20 minutes before and just after half-time on Saturday, but the confidence and composure of those in black ensured that Wales never panicked. This is a group that is growing together while winning.
However, with competition comes disappointment and as thoughts drift beyond the visit of the Springboks towards next year’s Rugby World Cup, not everyone will be able to squeeze onto the flight to Japan.
Nowhere will be calls be as close as in the second- and back-rows, where Davies’ versatility could prove pivotal as Gatland attempts to pick a 31-man squad able to cope with injuries and a packed schedule.
Four years ago five locks and six back-rows were named in the original World Cup squad, but the number of second-rows may well reduce to four this time around if Gatland opts to take more than two fly-halves.
In that scenario, taking a player who can operate in multiple positions is a huge positive. Saturday’s start at number eight – his second at Test level – means that Davies has made more appearances for Wales in the back-row (four) than in his favoured position, lock (three).
You would not have known he was playing out of position, though, as he used his considerable frame to punch holes in the Tongan defence and the handling skills he picked up as a young centre to keep attacks moving forward.
If Gatland decides to use the height of Adam Beard against Australia next September as he did last weekend then Davies could find himself in a battle with Cory Hill and Aaron Shingler for two seats on the long-haul flight to Japan.
Hill’s leadership experience – he acted as co-captain on the tour of the United States and Argentina – could well give him an edge, leaving Shingler as the odd man out. That would be harsh on the Scarlets player but Davies can cover lock, blindside and number eight, providing Gatland with valuable versatility.
It would also leave Wainwright, a constant menace on Saturday, Josh Navidi, James Davies and Ollie Griffiths watching on from home next September.
Dan Biggar needed a performance against Tonga having slipped below Gareth Anscombe in the pecking order at 10, and the Northampton playmaker duly delivered a man-of-the-match display.
Speaking to Biggar ahead of this season, he baulked at the suggestion that his move to Franklin’s Gardens had come at a difficult time with a World Cup on the horizon. He clearly relishes his new role within the squad and got the Welsh attack purring after a stuttering second quarter.
Rhys Patchell, who scored a scintillating solo try after replacing Biggar with an hour gone, and Anscombe offer something different to the Northampton man, a threat with ball in hand. But considering they also offer cover at full-back it is likely all three will make the World Cup squad.
Elsewhere in the backline, Watkin – long earmarked as a Test star – impressed in a Wales shirt again, stealing possession on two occasions and linking well in attack.
Gatland selected three centres for both the 2011 and 2015 World Cups, so with Hadleigh Parkes and Jonathan Davies looking nailed on as his first-choice pairing it could come down to a choice between Watkin, Ospreys team-mate Scott Williams and Tyler Morgan for the trip to Japan.
Williams appeared in both tournaments in New Zealand and England, and has been a stalwart for Gatland since his debut in 2011, but a hamstring injury has opened the door for Watkin.
The battle for a back-three place, meanwhile, is almost as intense as that in the back-row. Liam Williams scored twice against Tonga and barring injury or a shock of seismic proportions he will board the plane to Japan.
However, things might not be so straightforward for the other try-scoring wing on Saturday, Steff Evans.
An injury picked up against the Springboks in Washington last summer, and a subsequent dip in form at the Scarlets has contributed to him slipping down the pecking order for Wales.
The main beneficiary has been Evans’ school friend and former Scarlets academy colleague Josh Adams, who Gatland named as his man of the match against Australia.
Wales took five back-three players for both the 2011 and 2015 World Cups. Leigh Halfpenny, George North and Liam Williams should make the trip, which would leave Adams, Evans, Hallam Amos, Jonah Holmes and potentially Owen Lane in contention for just two spots.
It was timely therefore that Evans provided a smart finish to score the try that broke Tonga’s resolve, and edged Wales back into a decisive lead.
We will get an insight into what it has done for his World Cup hopes when Gatland names his team to face South Africa on Thursday.
Comments on RugbyPass
Jake White talks more sense than anything I've read in the last 5 years. Hope someone's listening.
9 Go to commentsThe Springboks tried going down the road of only picking home-based players and it was an unmitigated disaster in 2016 and 2017. Picking overseas-based players has been one of the main reason the Boks have done so well since 2018, not only because of the quality Rassie could call on, but because of the knowledge and experience those players brought into camp from England, France and Japan. With some of the big names playing abroad it also gave younger players in SA the chance to break through at franchise level. Would we have seen the emergence of a Ruan Nortje if RG and Lood were still at the Bulls? Not so sure. I understand why Jake would want to block players leaving since his job depends on good results but it’s an approach that would take Bok rugby back to the bad old days and no South African wants to see that.
9 Go to commentsExeter were thumped by 38 points. And they only had to hop on a train.
34 Go to commentsI am De Groot.
1 Go to commentsHad hoped you might write an article on this game, Nick. It’s a good one. Things have not gone as smoothly for ROG since beating Leinster last year at the Aviva in the CC final. LAR had the Top 14 Final won till Raymond Rhule missed a simple tackle on the excellent Ntamack, and Toulouse reaped the rewards of just staying in the fight till the death. Then the disruption of the RWC this season. LAR have not handled that well, but they were not alone, and we saw Pau heading the Top 14 table at one stage early season. I would think one of the reasons for the poor showing would have to be that the younger players coming through, and the more mature amongst the group outside the top 25/30, are not as strong as would be hoped for. I note that Romain Sazy retired at the end of last season. He had been with LAR since 2010, and was thus one of their foundation players when they were promoted to Top 14. Records show he ended up with 336 games played with LAR. That is some experience, some rock in the team. He has been replaced for the most part by Ultan Dillane. At 30, Dillane is not young, but given the chances, he may be a fair enough replacement for Sazy. But that won’be for more than a few years. I honestly know little of the pathways into the LAR setup from within France. I did read somewhere a couple of years ago that on the way up to Top 14, the club very successfully picked up players from the academies of other French teams who were not offered places by those teams. These guys were often great signings…can’t find the article right now, so can’t name any….but the Tadgh Beirne type players. So all in all, it will be interesting to see where the replacements for all the older players come from. Only Lleyd’s and Rhule from SA currently, both backs. So maybe a few SA forwards ?? By contrast, Leinster have a pretty clear line of good players coming through in the majority of positions. Props maybe a weak spot ? And they are very fleet footed and shrewd in appointing very good coaches. Or maybe it is also true that very good coaches do very well in the Leinster setup. So, Nick, I would fully concurr that “On the evidence of Saturday’s semi-final between the two clubs, the rebuild in the Bay of Biscay is going to take longer than it is on the east coast of Ireland”
11 Go to commentsWhat was the excuse for the other knockout blowouts then? Does the result not prove the Saints were just so much better? Wise call to put your eggs in one basket when you’ve got 2 comps simultaneously finishing.
34 Go to commentsReally hope Kuruvoli and his partner rock the Canes.
1 Go to commentsI wonder what impact Samson has had on their attack, as the team seems less prone to trundle it up the middle, take the tackle and then trundle it up again. I lost faith in the coach last year as the Rebelss looked like a 2nd/3rd rate South African team. I also disliked Gordon standing back, often ignored as the forward battle went on and on. Maybe its our Aussie way of not getting off our A***’s until the enemy is at the gate.
86 Go to commentsThanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
86 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
9 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
34 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
9 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
9 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
13 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
11 Go to comments