Jake White: Where All Blacks and Boks' game will be won and lost

There are so many questions that will be answered when the final whistle goes in Auckland on Saturday evening. Is Tony Brown’s influence with the Springboks taking them up the right or wrong path? You know, are the Boks trying to play in a style which doesn’t fit their natural strengths? Are New Zealand moving away from the foundations of what has made the successful? That’s been the rhetoric that’s been emanating out of both fanbases all week.

Let’s be clear, I don’t believe the team that loses this Test are suddenly going to be backs against the wall and careering into a crisis, but I do think the team that emerges victorious is going to have a clear psychological advantage going forward as we head into 2026 and turn the corner towards the 2027 Rugby World Cup. It’s not quite sh*t or bust for the team that loses but the odds of them being favourites going into the quadrennially played tournament lengthen.

So which areas will win or lose the titanic tussle at Eden Park?

The 80-minute set-piece battle

The All Blacks scrum functioned pretty well against the Pumas but even with a scrum that was bested, Argentina still managed to eke out the win in Buenos Aires. Now in recent years, South Africa have always hedged their bets on the basis that their ‘Bomb Squad’ has always been better than every other reserve front row. It’s going to be fascinating to see which front row is going to be able to play through, or dominate, and then have a similar impact from the bench.

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The influence of both benches has been scrutinised of late. Argentina, even in the first Test, which they lost, finished stronger than the ABs, after being 31-10 down. The scrummaging battle with both sets of front rows is going to be massive. Elsewhere, I’ll be keeping an eye on the maul, where Jason Ryan has definitely improved the All Blacks since coming in in 2023. I have no doubt the Boks will be using their maul as an exit strategy to get penalties, three points or entries into 22s. It is going to be a crucial facet to who comes out on top in this game.

Lineout dominance at the tail is pivotal

Winning clean lineout ball is key. It’s all about the quality you get on your own ball, and it’s how you disrupt the opposition. It’s why the Springboks routinely go for a rangy blindside like Pieter Steph du Toit, who is 6ft 7ins, or Franco Mostert who is an inch shorter. Interestingly, the All Blacks have been questioned for never being able to adequately replace Jerome Kaino, who last pulled on an All Blacks No.6 shirt in 2015.

Ardie Savea and Sam Cane have been brilliant players but weren’t especially tall but they’ve lacked a dominant No.6, which is why they’ve trialled Tupou Vaa’i there to see if he has the athleticism, and for Saturday they’ve moved the 6ft 6in Simon Parker over from No.8 for only his second cap. Why’s it so important? If there’s any doubt about going long in the hooker’s mind, he’ll end up throwing somewhere else in the line, and then it’s easier for the defence to second guess where the ball’s going and spoil.

What people may not understand is a towering blindside counteracts the fact you don’t give the opposition lineout ball at the back which leads to powerful rolling mauls and penalties called against you. If you can counteract height with height and disrupt that ball, you in effect set up a platform to actually stop the maul.

Attack wins you games in 2025

I saw some stats recently that said if you score 27 points in a Test, you’ll have a very good chance of winning the game. Personally, I think the All Blacks have struggled to match the attacking quality they were given by the likes of Ma’a Nonu, Tana Umaga, Ben Smith, or Conrad Smith.

They were players who could make linebreaks in the blink of an eye and I’m not sure the current crop are upgrades on those icons of the game. It will be intriguing to see which team makes most opportunities.

If the All Blacks think they can just sit back on their heels and repel wave after wave of Springbok attack, they won’t win because their DNA has always been to outscore their opponents. If the Boks hit 30 in Eden Park, in my opinion they’ll likely win the Test match.

Make your early kicks to create scoreboard pressure

We’ve seen what missing kicks has meant for Manie Libbok and Beauden Barrett and the respective fortunes of their teams. It’s going to be an edgy, nervy game early on and slotting the early kicks to create scoreboard pressure will be key. You miss four or six points early on and that’s massive in a Test match who is likely to be a one-score game.

That’s why Handre Pollard is starting for the Boks. What you don’t need is someone to kick well only when there’s no pressure and you score six or seven tries and win 40 points to something. In a tight game like this, you want someone who doesn’t miss the poles. It’s got nothing to do with is Pollard better than Barrett as an all-round player? It’s just a Test where you can’t afford to leave points out on the field.

The Eden Park factor

There’s an adage we use when you’re the visiting team. ‘Take the crowd out of the contest’. You know, silence the supporters. The one way you do that is you score early, and keep the scoreboard ticking over. You’ll notice the crowd gets quieter and quieter. As soon as the crowd senses their team has the upper hand, it’s very difficult for opposition teams to come back.

The Eden Park crowd know their rugby and if the All Blacks are in trouble, you’ll be able to hear a pin drop. It is interesting to see Rassie Erasumus hold back his squad announcement by a few days. It shows just how important those chess moves are going to be in the areas we’ve mentioned and how seriously he is approaching this game.

Jesse Kriel’s big Test and the importance of maintaining discipline

Even though Siya Kolisi has been picked as eighth man, interestingly Rassie Erasmus has handed Jesse Kriel the captain’s armband. It’s going to be a tough Test match for any captain in that cauldron. Personally, I have always picked a forward as captain because he is closer to the action, so I thought Eben [Etzebeth] may have got the armband if Siya hadn’t made it.

Locks make great captains. Someone like Alun Wyn Jones, one of the modern-day greats, would use his eyes in the maul, look at the referee and say, ‘these guys are offside’ and get a penalty. Saying that, there have been some very fine midfield captains. If you look back at Brian O’Driscoll, Tana Umaga, even as far back as Will Carling. It can work.

It’ll be a big evening for Jesse, and they will have to be mindful not to overload Karl Dickson, if Siya and Eben want to make a point. On the flip side, as we know, there’s been much debate over whether Scott Barrett is the right captain for the All Blacks. One thing the All Blacks have been poor in the last couple of weeks is their discipline and having to play with 14 men, or less, for long periods of time.

Scott Barrett has to control his men. That’s completely unlike the All Blacks we have known, who would normally be squeaky clean and smart. It’s a crucial element of who comes out on top this weekend.