Ireland must turn screw in Scottish heads to avoid post-Six Nations repercussions
There may be a gap of 225 days in between Ireland’s two 2019 fixtures against Scotland, but next Saturday’s Six Nations outcome in Edinburgh will likely have a major influence on what happens when the teams reconvene on September 22, some 5,750 miles away in Yokohama at the World Cup.
Win at Murrayfield and Ireland will have an unshakeable belief that the Scots are but a minor road bump on the way to potential glory in Japan.
Lose, though, and all bets made since the 2017 pool draw in Kyoto – that Ireland’s progress to the last eight will be a stroll – are suddenly off.
Breeding Scottish confidence is the last thing Ireland will want to do with the Far East in mind, so it’s important to keep turning the psychological screw on their Celtic cousin and leave them fearing what Joe Schmidt’s team are capable of.
It was this type of fear that was decisive in Ireland’s 2015 finals pool. Schmidt’s charges comprehensively dismissed France in Cardiff despite the huge in-game catalogue of injury that cost them a leadership trio of Johnny Sexton, Paul O’Connell and Peter O’Mahony.
It was December 2012 when the draw took place for those finals in London and for years in the run-up to that long-signalled pivotal group fixture, a concerted effort was made by Ireland not to give the French an inch.
There was an Irish draw in Dublin in 2013, an excellent result given how that was their worst Six Nations campaign on record and signalled the end of the Declan Kidney era.
Then came the mind-steeling victories, Ireland winning in Paris in 2014 to clinch the championship and then repeating that success in the 2015 renewal back in Dublin.
The pattern of Test results screwed a nail deep in Gallic heads and the consequence was that by the time the pool decider took place, French confidence was at an extremely low ebb and Ireland duly profited.
Now the focus is to screw a similar nail in Scottish heads in time for the 2019 finals by landing the psychological blow of putting Gregor Townsend’s side in the Six Nations ha’penny place.
When Ireland last travelled to Edinburgh, there was still months to go before the two countries learned they would be World Cup pool enemies.
What transpired that February 2017 day was a shock ambush that Joe Schmidt will be going all out in preparations this week to ensure it isn’t repeated, especially with Ireland having lost their opening match to England.
Little was expected from the Scots two years ago as Ireland had long dominated the Test fixture and even clinched the 2015 title in Edinburgh with a runaway hammering.
However, unsettled by their bus arriving late at the stadium, which impacted on their allotted warm-up time, Ireland were caught cold by an early three-try Scottish blitz and they ran out of gas in the closing minutes after over-working to claw themselves back into the contest.
“If the police decide to take us a different route you must abide by that,” explained Ireland manager Paul Dean. “That was the reason why that happened. There are circumstances outside your control that you can’t deal with.”
What Ireland do control is what happens on the pitch and their players have been busy re-establishing their perceived superiority over the Scots.
The provinces have won 17 of the 29 Irish-Scottish club encounters since then, but it was Leinster who took the giant step in retaking the ground surprisingly ceded at Murrayfield 24 months ago.
With so many international players in their respective ranks, Leinster versus Glasgow is the de facto club version of an Ireland-Scotland Test match and the Irish province were merciless in twice defeating the Warriors in the Champions Cup last season before Ireland got their chance of retribution in March last year.
Townsend’s side arrived in Dublin giddy on the back of a victory over England, but Ireland clinically got back to winning ways in the head-to-head, their crushing 28-8 mauling clinching them the Six Nations title with a game to spare.
The Scottish coach, though, remains a canny foe to Schmidt to be wary of. When Townsend took over at Glasgow, rather than forever fear they couldn’t compete with the provinces, he set about mirroring how the Irish went about their business on and off the field and the grand reward was their 2015 PRO12 final destruction of Munster in Belfast.
Now his ambition is to build concrete belief that his country is no longer second rate in the Six Nations. That outcome would be a disaster if it happened. On paper, the draw for the 2019 finals has presented Ireland with an appetising route towards reaching the final, never mind appear in a first ever semi-final.
It’s why getting players such as James Ryan, Jason Stockdale and others into a pre-World Cup habit of beating up Scotland would be invaluable in before they meet-up again in Japan.
This was what happened last time round. The likes of Rob Kearney, Jamie Heaslip and Sean O’Brien became so used to beating France and its club teams that they never flinched when it came to the task of dismissing Les Bleus at England 2015. They made it look easy.
That same psychological pre-finals edge is now being sought with the Scots in Ireland’s crosshairs.
Comments on RugbyPass
Exeter were thumped by 38 points. And they only had to hop on a train.
29 Go to commentsI am De Groot.
1 Go to commentsHad hoped you might write an article on this game, Nick. It’s a good one. Things have not gone as smoothly for ROG since beating Leinster last year at the Aviva in the CC final. LAR had the Top 14 Final won till Raymond Rhule missed a simple tackle on the excellent Ntamack, and Toulouse reaped the rewards of just staying in the fight till the death. Then the disruption of the RWC this season. LAR have not handled that well, but they were not alone, and we saw Pau heading the Top 14 table at one stage early season. I would think one of the reasons for the poor showing would have to be that the younger players coming through, and the more mature amongst the group outside the top 25/30, are not as strong as would be hoped for. I note that Romain Sazy retired at the end of last season. He had been with LAR since 2010, and was thus one of their foundation players when they were promoted to Top 14. Records show he ended up with 336 games played with LAR. That is some experience, some rock in the team. He has been replaced for the most part by Ultan Dillane. At 30, Dillane is not young, but given the chances, he may be a fair enough replacement for Sazy. But that won’be for more than a few years. I honestly know little of the pathways into the LAR setup from within France. I did read somewhere a couple of years ago that on the way up to Top 14, the club very successfully picked up players from the academies of other French teams who were not offered places by those teams. These guys were often great signings…can’t find the article right now, so can’t name any….but the Tadgh Beirne type players. So all in all, it will be interesting to see where the replacements for all the older players come from. Only Lleyd’s and Rhule from SA currently, both backs. So maybe a few SA forwards ?? By contrast, Leinster have a pretty clear line of good players coming through in the majority of positions. Props maybe a weak spot ? And they are very fleet footed and shrewd in appointing very good coaches. Or maybe it is also true that very good coaches do very well in the Leinster setup. So, Nick, I would fully concurr that “On the evidence of Saturday’s semi-final between the two clubs, the rebuild in the Bay of Biscay is going to take longer than it is on the east coast of Ireland”
11 Go to commentsWhat was the excuse for the other knockout blowouts then? Does the result not prove the Saints were just so much better? Wise call to put your eggs in one basket when you’ve got 2 comps simultaneously finishing.
29 Go to commentsReally hope Kuruvoli and his partner rock the Canes.
1 Go to commentsI wonder what impact Samson has had on their attack, as the team seems less prone to trundle it up the middle, take the tackle and then trundle it up again. I lost faith in the coach last year as the Rebelss looked like a 2nd/3rd rate South African team. I also disliked Gordon standing back, often ignored as the forward battle went on and on. Maybe its our Aussie way of not getting off our A***’s until the enemy is at the gate.
85 Go to commentsThanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
85 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
4 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
29 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
4 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
4 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
13 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
11 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
11 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
11 Go to comments