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How your date of birth could affect your chances of playing for the All Blacks
Your date of birth, as it happens, could have a significant bearing on whether or not you play for the All Blacks.
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The relative age effect is a phenomenon that has a major bearing on sport and academia, and rugby is by no means exempt.
Science for Sport defines it as “a phenomenon in which children born in, or close to, a critical age cut-off period may have an advantage in both athletic and academic endeavours,” and it is explored in depth in Malcolm Gladwell’s 2008 international bestseller Outliers.
Gladwell looks at age-grade ice hockey in Canada, and how there are biases in what appears to be a meritocratic system where success is theoretically based on individual talent. Though this shines a light on one country and one sport, there are undeniable parallels with rugby in New Zealand, and all over the world.
“In Canada the eligibility cutoff for age-class hockey is January 1,” Gladwell wrote. “A boy who turns ten on January 2, then, could be playing alongside someone who doesn’t turn ten until the end of the year- and at that age, in preadolescence, a twelve-month gap in age represents an enormous difference in physical maturity.
This being Canada, the most hockey-crazed country on earth, coaches start to select players for the traveling ‘rep’ squad -the all-star teams- at the age of nine or ten, and of course they are more likely to view as talented the bigger and more coordinated players, who have had the benefit of critical extra months of maturity.
And what happens when a player gets chosen for a rep squad? He gets better coaching, and his teammates are better, and he practices twice as much as, or even three times more than, he would have otherwise. In the beginning, his advantage isn’t so much that he is inherently better but only that he is a littler older. But by the age of thirteen or fourteen, with the benefit of better coaching and all that extra practice under his belt, he really is better, so he’s the one more likely to make it to the Major Junior A league, and from there into the big leagues.”
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Gladwell describes the “iron law of Canadian hockey,” that “in any elite group of hockey players- the very best of the best- 40 percent of the players will have been born between January and March.”
When looking at the All Blacks, the ‘best of the best’ in New Zealand and indeed world rugby during the professional era, this ‘iron law’ seems to be applicable to rugby as well.
In New Zealand, where the cutoff for age-grade rugby is also January 1, the figures produced are more or less identical to the ice hockey. This is made no clearer than when looking at the current squad for the Tri-Nations, where 42 percent of the 38-man roster were born between January and March.
This is a reality of sport that is hard to counteract, and rugby is one where these biases are clearly going to be present. The physical advantages that a child will have who is almost a year older than another are immeasurable and it will inevitably have a say on their success.
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New Zealand does have measures in place to avoid this problem with the weight class structure for youth players. This effectively levels the playing field by making age more or less an irrelevance and ensures that those who are disadvantaged from being almost a year younger, and possibly smaller, than people in the same age group are not left behind in terms of selection and development.
This can only go so far in terms of eradicating potential biases as certain age grades still exist, notably under-15, and weight classes only go up to 75kg. Those over 75kg may therefore be those that are born in the first few months of the year and have benefited from the extra few months of maturity.
However, while the relative age effect largely relates to the physical advantages an older player has, and how that helps shape their progression, they will also have the edge in other areas such as emotional and psychological maturity, and coordination.
Those areas cannot be addressed with weight classes, which means that those who are older within each designated group may still have an advantage over their younger peers.
It may be coincidental, but this All Blacks squad does still suggest that the relative age effect exists, despite the measures in place. Further, it is unclear as to whether weight classes make the bias more or less apparent.
New Zealand may be ahead of the curve compared to most of the rugby world by no longer looking at age as a way of segregating, and while it does make the game safer, it may not have circumvented the relative age effect. These are of course the best players in New Zealand, few would argue against that, but a portion of the group may have received preferential treatment in their development.
The All Blacks for a long time have been regarded as a paragon of excellence in rugby and the sporting world, and their apparent conveyor-belt of world class talent is a testament to the scouting process in place and the ability to unearth talent.
With that said, there are still biases that hold some back, which if addressed could only strengthen a national team further and avoid players slipping through the net.
All Blacks squad
Patrick Tuipulotu- January
Sam Cane- January
Tupou Vaa’i- January
TJ Perenara- January
Brad Weber- January
Shannon Frizell- February
Karl Tu’inukuafe- February
Sevu Reece- February
Jordie Barrett- February
Will Jordan- February
Du’Plessis Kirifi- March
Asafo Aumua- March
Tyrel Lomax- March
Codie Taylor- March
Rieko Ioana- March
Caleb Clarke- March
42%
Ofa Tu’ungafasi- April
Ngani Laumape- April
Anton Lienert-Brown- April
Beauden Barret- May
Richie Mo’unga- May
George Bower- May
Damian McKenzie- May
Akira Ioane- June
Jack Goodhue- June
Alex Hodgman- July
Hoskins Sotutu- July
Joe Moody- September
Sam Whitelock- October
Dalton Papalii- October
Ardie Savea- October
Nepo Laulala- November
Mitchell Dunshea- November
Scott Barrerr- November
Aaron Smith-November
Dane Coles- December
Cullen Grace- December
Peter Umaga-Jensen- December
Comments on RugbyPass
Dagg is still trying to get enough headlines to make himself relevant enough to get a job. The Crusaders went back to square one at all levels. Shelve this season and nail the next one.
4 Go to commentsHe was in such great form. Sad for him but only a short term injury and it will be great to see him back for the finals.
1 Go to commentsAfter their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
3 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
3 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
37 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
2 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
3 Go to comments