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How each New Zealand team can qualify for the Super Rugby Trans-Tasman final
With just one round remaining in Super Rugby Trans-Tasman, all five Kiwi teams still have a chance at qualifying for next Saturday’s final.
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New Zealand’s dominance over Australia, reflected by 18 wins from 20 matches throughout the competition, has ensured the Blues, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Crusaders and Highlanders all have varying degrees of hope to make the cut for the top two.
However, five teams don’t go into two, and with some teams having better or worse records than others, how exactly can each of the five New Zealand franchises qualify for the Super Rugby Trans-Tasman final from this week’s final round of action?
Blues
Position: 1st
Points: 19
Points difference: +109
Final round opposition: Western Force at Eden Park, Auckland
Sitting atop the competition standings with four wins from as many matches and three extra bonus points to boot, the Blues are in pole position to make their first Super Rugby final since 2003.
Sitting one point clear of the Highlanders and Crusaders, another bonus point win over the Force this weekend would all but secure them of a home final at Eden Park on June 19.
Victory without a bonus point would keep the Highlanders and Crusaders within touching distance, but both South Island teams would need bonus point wins and victory margins in excess of at least 30-to-40 points to usurp the Blues in first place.
If both teams can do that, then the unlikely event of the Blues missing the cut entirely would become reality, but given how well the Aucklanders have been operating in this competition, it’s hard to see them dropping points against the Force.
Highlanders
Position: 2nd
Points: 18
Points difference: +82
Final round opposition: Brumbies at GIO Stadium, Canberra
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After picking up a record-breaking 59-23 win over the Waratahs on Saturday, the Highlanders have emerged from nowhere to thrust themselves into Super Rugby Trans-Tasman title contention.
Aided by the Crusaders’ failure to get a bonus point win over the Force and the Hurricanes’ loss to the Brumbies over the weekend, the Dunedin-based franchise has moved into second place leading into the final round of the competition.
As head coach Clarke Dermody made clear in his post-match interview over the weekend, the Highlanders aren’t focusing on the permutations of how they can make the final, but rather on how they can win each game they play.
Do that against the Brumbies in Canberra this weekend, and they will move to 22 points, but would rely on either the Blues to lose or the Crusaders to, at most, win by no more than whatever the Highlanders’ winning margin over the Brumbies is, plus 11 extra points, to stay in the top two.
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If they pick up a bonus point win in the Australian capital, the Highlanders would move into first spot and would stay in the top two regardless if the Blues win or not.
However, should the Blues win as expected, the Highlanders’ chances of qualification would hinge on how many points the Crusaders can pile on against the Melbourne Rebels, as their points difference is only 11 points higher than that of the reigning Super Rugby Aotearoa champions.
So, provided the Highlanders can beat the Brumbies in their own backyard, which the Hurricanes showed on Saturday is no easy feat, then all eyes will turn to the Crusaders’ clash with the Rebels at Leichardt Oval.
Publicly, at least, the jury remains out on whether Brad Weber will stay in New Zealand beyond 2021, but now is the time for him to go. #AllBlacks #BradWeber https://t.co/GKMof7p1mI
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) June 6, 2021
Crusaders
Position: 3rd
Points: 18
Points difference: +71
Final round opposition: Rebels at Leichardt Oval, Sydney
While they were undoubtedly disappointed to be robbed of a potentially crucial bonus point in the dying stages of their win over the Force last week, the Crusaders remain well in the hunt for a place in the final.
Tied with the second-placed Highlanders on points, they only trail their South Island rivals by a points difference of 11, meaning they are certainly within touching distance of the top two.
It also means their permutations are very similar to the Highlanders, as a win over the lowly Rebels in Sydney on Saturday would take them to 22 points.
That could be enough to secure them a place in the final, but Scott Robertson’s men would have to rely on either the Blues losing to the Force or the Highlanders to be kept at bay by the Brumbies, to the point where the southerners lose or have a lower points difference than the Crusaders.
A bonus point win for the Crusaders could mean they qualify for the final irrespective of the Blues result, but that’s dependent on whether the Highlanders are prevented from securing a bonus point win of their own.
Just how much the Crusaders need to outscore the Highlanders by will be clearer after Friday’s match in Canberra, but with the latter side already holding a points difference advantage, the onus is on the Crusaders to run up a score against the Rebels.
Hurricanes
Position: 4th
Points: 16
Points difference: +73
Final round opposition: Reds at Sky Stadium, Wellington
They headed into the most recent round of action in second place and looked in prime position to qualify for next week’s final, but the Hurricanes are now almost out of title contention following Saturday’s defeat to the Brumbies in Canberra.
The 12-10 loss in the Australian capital leaves Jason Holland’s men in fourth place after both the Highlanders and Crusaders leapfrogged them to go two points clear of the Wellingtonians.
As a result, a few things need to go the Hurricanes’ way if they’re to make the final, but it is still possible, even if Holland has already conceded that his side have blown their chance to clinch their first silverware since 2016.
It basically boils down to this: two of the three teams above them – the Blues, Highlanders and Crusaders – need to lose this weekend.
If two or all of those teams win at all in the final round of matches, a place in the top two will be out of reach for the Hurricanes, who can, at most, finish on 21 points, and that’s only if they can beat the Reds with a bonus point at home on Friday.
While the Brumbies will be tough for the Highlanders to beat in Canberra, the Blues and Crusaders should overcome the Force and Rebels, respectively, meaning the Hurricanes are at very long odds to make next week’s final.
Which lucky loosies will have their names read out later this month when the #AllBlacks name their first squad of 2021?
?? @TomVinicombehttps://t.co/SMTm2QgQyx
— The XV Rugby (@TheXV) June 7, 2021
Chiefs
Position: 5th
Points: 14
Points difference: +26
Final round opposition: Waratahs at Lottoland, Sydney
A loss to the Reds and failure to secure a bonus point against the Rebels in successive weeks makes the Chiefs’ title hopes almost non-existent going into this weekend.
Sitting four points away from a top two spot, Clayton McMillan’s side are in a similar predicament to the Hurricanes in that they need three of the four teams above them to lose in order to stay alive in the competition.
As mentioned above, that much is already considered unlikely, but the Chiefs also can’t afford any two of the Blues, Highlanders or Crusaders to pick up a single bonus point either.
Furthermore, the Chiefs have by far the worst points difference of the Kiwi sides, meaning they would need to post an enormous winning margin against the Waratahs at Lottoland on Saturday.
Given how poorly their winless opponents have fared this year, a big win this weekend isn’t out of the question for the Chiefs, but they would require a miracle run of results to go their way if they are to play in their second final this year.
Comments on RugbyPass
Hope he stays as believe he can do a great job.
1 Go to commentsMake what step up? Manie has a World Cup winner’s medal around his neck and changed the way the Springboks can play. He doesn’t have anything to prove to anyone. The win record of the Boks with him in the team is tremendous. Sacha can be wonderful and I hope he has a very succesful Bok career, but comparing him to Manie in terms of the next Bok flyhalf is very strange. Manie is the incumbent (not the next) and doing pretty incredibly.
1 Go to comments00 😍 U
1 Go to commentsSabbaticals have helped keep NZ’s very best talent in the country on long term deals - this fact has been left out of this article. Much like the articles calling to allow overseas players to be selected, yet can only name one player currently not signed to NZR who would be selected for the ABs. And in the entire history of NZ players leaving to play overseas, literally only 4 or 5 have left in their prime as current ABs. (Piatau, Evans, Hayman, Mo’unga,?) Yes Carter got an injury while playing in France 16 years ago, but he also got a tournament ending injury at the 2011 World Cup while taking mid-week practice kicks at goal. Maybe Jordie gets a season-ending injury while playing in Ireland, maybe he gets one next week against the Brumbies. NZR have many shortcomings, but keeping the very best players in the country and/or available for ABs selection is not one of them. Likewise for workload management - players missing 2 games out of 14 is hardly a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Again let’s use some facts - did it stop the Crusaders winning SR so many times consecutively when during any given week they would be missing 2 of their best players? The whole idea of the sabbatical is to reward your best players who are willing to sign very long term deals with some time to do whatever they want. They are not handed out willy-nilly, and at nowhere near the levels that would somehow devalue Super Rugby. In this particular example JB is locked in with NZR for what will probably (hopefully) be the best years of his career, hard to imagine him not sticking around for a couple more after for a Lions tour and one more world cup. He has the potential to become the most capped AB of all time. A much better outcome than him leaving NZ for a minimum of 3 years at the age of 27, unlikely to ever play for the ABs again, which would be the likely alternative.
1 Go to commentsJake White talks more sense than anything I've read in the last 5 years. Hope someone's listening.
9 Go to commentsThe Springboks tried going down the road of only picking home-based players and it was an unmitigated disaster in 2016 and 2017. Picking overseas-based players has been one of the main reason the Boks have done so well since 2018, not only because of the quality Rassie could call on, but because of the knowledge and experience those players brought into camp from England, France and Japan. With some of the big names playing abroad it also gave younger players in SA the chance to break through at franchise level. Would we have seen the emergence of a Ruan Nortje if RG and Lood were still at the Bulls? Not so sure. I understand why Jake would want to block players leaving since his job depends on good results but it’s an approach that would take Bok rugby back to the bad old days and no South African wants to see that.
9 Go to commentsExeter were thumped by 38 points. And they only had to hop on a train.
39 Go to commentsI am De Groot.
1 Go to commentsHad hoped you might write an article on this game, Nick. It’s a good one. Things have not gone as smoothly for ROG since beating Leinster last year at the Aviva in the CC final. LAR had the Top 14 Final won till Raymond Rhule missed a simple tackle on the excellent Ntamack, and Toulouse reaped the rewards of just staying in the fight till the death. Then the disruption of the RWC this season. LAR have not handled that well, but they were not alone, and we saw Pau heading the Top 14 table at one stage early season. I would think one of the reasons for the poor showing would have to be that the younger players coming through, and the more mature amongst the group outside the top 25/30, are not as strong as would be hoped for. I note that Romain Sazy retired at the end of last season. He had been with LAR since 2010, and was thus one of their foundation players when they were promoted to Top 14. Records show he ended up with 336 games played with LAR. That is some experience, some rock in the team. He has been replaced for the most part by Ultan Dillane. At 30, Dillane is not young, but given the chances, he may be a fair enough replacement for Sazy. But that won’be for more than a few years. I honestly know little of the pathways into the LAR setup from within France. I did read somewhere a couple of years ago that on the way up to Top 14, the club very successfully picked up players from the academies of other French teams who were not offered places by those teams. These guys were often great signings…can’t find the article right now, so can’t name any….but the Tadgh Beirne type players. So all in all, it will be interesting to see where the replacements for all the older players come from. Only Lleyd’s and Rhule from SA currently, both backs. So maybe a few SA forwards ?? By contrast, Leinster have a pretty clear line of good players coming through in the majority of positions. Props maybe a weak spot ? And they are very fleet footed and shrewd in appointing very good coaches. Or maybe it is also true that very good coaches do very well in the Leinster setup. So, Nick, I would fully concurr that “On the evidence of Saturday’s semi-final between the two clubs, the rebuild in the Bay of Biscay is going to take longer than it is on the east coast of Ireland”
11 Go to commentsWhat was the excuse for the other knockout blowouts then? Does the result not prove the Saints were just so much better? Wise call to put your eggs in one basket when you’ve got 2 comps simultaneously finishing.
39 Go to commentsReally hope Kuruvoli and his partner rock the Canes.
1 Go to commentsI wonder what impact Samson has had on their attack, as the team seems less prone to trundle it up the middle, take the tackle and then trundle it up again. I lost faith in the coach last year as the Rebelss looked like a 2nd/3rd rate South African team. I also disliked Gordon standing back, often ignored as the forward battle went on and on. Maybe its our Aussie way of not getting off our A***’s until the enemy is at the gate.
86 Go to commentsThanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
86 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
9 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
39 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
9 Go to comments