Could the Blues cause an upset in the final weekend of Super Rugby?
NZ Herald / Patrick McKendry
This season’s Super Rugby competition has made a mess of many a prediction, but, bear with me – the Hurricanes, who have already qualified for a home quarter-final thanks to their superb victory over the Lions in Johannesburg – will lose to the Blues this weekend.
The match in Wellington is looming as one of the Hurricanes’ toughest challenges of the season because they have little to gain from it and they will have missed a decent proportion of their week travelling home from a successful stint in South Africa.
They will be missing a few key personnel, including midfielder Ngani Laumape who is on an All Black rest week, and will have an eye on the knockout stages of the competition.
They are also perhaps the one team who can seriously threaten the Crusaders in Christchurch – their 37-17 victory over the Lions at Ellis Park despite the late withdrawal of Beauden Barrett due to illness should not be underestimated – and are on course to meet them in a semifinal.
The second part of the equation, of course, is how the Blues perform, and nothing should be taken for granted here after another away defeat at the weekend, this time to the Reds in Brisbane.
There is nothing in this match for the Blues either. They’re out of the playoffs equation and are playing for only that intangible thing called pride, but this is likely to be the final Super Rugby match for Sonny Bill Williams, if he’s passed fit after knee surgery, and fellow midfielder Ma’a Nonu. Both deserve a half decent send-off and it’s up to their teammates to provide it.
Can they harness what will be a sense of injustice after their one-point defeat at Suncorp Stadium? Who knows, but one thing in their favour is that there will be little expectation on them and that’s how this team likes it. They don’t handle pressure well and that’s perhaps why they tend to thrive in pre-season (a dry ball and pitch helps, too) and fall apart during the season proper.
If they do manage it, it will be their first away win of the season and first away success against a New Zealand team since they beat the Hurricanes in 2013, an extraordinarily poor run that has to be broken some time doesn’t it?
I’ve started with a prediction and I’ll finish with a few more.
The Highlanders will finish their season with a victory over the Waratahs in Invercargill but will miss out on the playoffs – their draw to the Bulls in Dunedin was a killer – and the Chiefs will beat the Rebels in Melbourne to sneak into the top eight, for which their reward will be a trip to Christchurch to play a Crusaders team they made fools of in Suva recently.
The Crusaders have everything in their favour as they march towards what they will believe is their destiny of three victories in three years under Scott Robertson. They have a bye this weekend and a cast of thousands (okay, front rowers Owen Franks, Codie Taylor and Tim Perry) vying for starting positions after injury and you don’t need to be a genius to suggest they will be very difficult to beat at their fortress.
A rematch against a Chiefs side who have improved significantly over the second part of the season will be highly anticipated and so will, potentially, another against the Hurricanes.
Coach John Plumtree showed in Johannesburg that he is capable of designing effective winning strategies – he left Dane Coles and Ardie Savea on the bench in order to boost their second-half impact and the pair did it superbly. They are a danger but will struggle to beat the Blues on Saturday.
This article first appeared on nzherald.co.nz and is republished with permission.
Comments on RugbyPass
I guess we may all agree on the fact, that the ABs and Boks are the two in contest for No 1 in rugby history (the triple-A sort of) …. the Wallabies, England and France are the next tier, with Ireland being the new kid in town (AA) …. in my view it makes little sense creating imaginary competitions (unless you have too much time to waste)
43 Go to commentsWhat a joke. Total joke and the pundits commentating, all of whom know a bit about the game, could barely disguise their contempt. Reaching for the card then pulling back when he realised a red card would carry further match suspensions is simply not his decision to make. A clear and obvious influence on the outcome of this match and indeed, the championship path.
2 Go to commentsI like the idea, in NZ the Ranfurly Shield and NPC coexist, both having their own bragging rights. The World Cup would be the pinnacle, but the competition and travels of these trophies would be interesting.
43 Go to commentsDon’t worry Sonny bill Williams leave that awkward situation about the curfew in the pass whoever it was it doesn’t matter its no big deal we back our All Blacks through the storm and the thunder until we see the Sun light again.
42 Go to commentsWho listens to this retard? He was a massive liability as a player but obviously a media sensation
42 Go to commentsI’m not surprised by such ‘virtue signalling’ by Sonny Boy. Butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth. He’s such a pious Islamic muppet, imo.
42 Go to commentsI’ve actually never heard of the guy (then I don’t watch League as it is boring). But if he is good enough.. then good luck to him. If not, well, he can always return to league.
2 Go to commentsIt is pretty clear that by almost any measure that NZ are a more successful rugby nation than South Africa. Quite aside from the distasteful events during the last RWC final. NZ lead SA in all significant measurements.
43 Go to commentsDickson went to his pocket for a card, saw who it was, changed his mind and spoke at length to TMO. One angle clearly shows Care diving over a Saints player to kill the ball. 1st yellow, reason given for not Red was player was falling backwards. He was only falling backwards after contact with Lawes. Graham try should have stood. Mitchell did not have both hands on the ball, ball went forward from a Saints boot dragging over it. 2 intentional knock-on's. One of which had an overlap on the outside. If Quins are happy to win by intentional foul play, then it does not say much for them. Would appear to be a bad day for Karl Dickson, also for the RFU in appointing a Ref who spent 8 years as a player at one of the clubs.
2 Go to commentsLet’s not forget about Ardie Savea just yet.
6 Go to commentsThe URC and the Euro Championscup can’t run at the same time, basically dilutes both competitions.
1 Go to comments“While Sotutu should start at No.8 for the All Blacks against England, but it’s only in that arena that he can prove just how good he really is.” And that my friends is where simply hasnt shone despite multiple opportunities. Even in this performance you can see what did him in in the test arena..he almost always still runs at the opposition almost ramrod upright making him easier to stop than it should be.
6 Go to commentsShould have been 0-0 and a message from SR CEO to both teams - “don’t worry about turning up next year”.
4 Go to commentsGreat work Owen Franks. A great of this team, scoring his first try for the Crusaders since 2010.He was beaming, justifiably. A fine win, he and the rest did the job up front.
1 Go to commentsDanny Care. Lang in die tand.
1 Go to commentsBig empty stadium does nothing for atmosphere but munster are playing well with solid performance
1 Go to commentsYes, Fiji can win the World Cup! With that belief plus their christian faith🙏 and hard work it is achievable. Great article. Ian Duncan Fiji resident 1981-84
2 Go to commentsInteresting comments about Touch. England’s hosting the Touch World Cup this year and the numbers have exploded since their last World Cup in 2019, something like 70% more teams and 40 nations taking part. And England Touch have made a big thing about how many universities are in their BUCS University Touch Championship as well as Sport England membership. Can only see this growing even more domestically as more people become aware of it
10 Go to comments“Cortez Ratima is light years ahead of anyone on current form, while TJ Perenara has also skyrocketed into contention following the unfortunate injury to the talented Cam Roigard.” At last some sanity. Hitherto so many pundits have been wittering on about Finlay Christie to the point one wondered if they were observing a FC in a parallel universe where the FC they saw wasnt just the mediocre Shayne Philpott project of Fosters hapless AB reign in the real world. Ratima, Perenara and Fakatava are the ONLY logical 9s for Razor now Roigard is crocked.
4 Go to commentsThis game was just as painful as the Hurricanes game. It was real fork-in-the-eye stuff.
4 Go to comments