Why the British and Irish Lions would almost certainly win Super Rugby
By the end of their tour, the Lions will have played everything New Zealand has to offer. If they’re to beat the All Blacks, they’ll have to be be better than the best of Super Rugby, given that Kiwis make up five of the top six teams. So, if given the chance could the Lions win Super Rugby?
Nobody questions the fact that rugby differs across the equator. It’s been easy so far to see the clash of styles on tour and their respective worths.
The Lions certainly looked like a match for the league’s top team. They brought an intelligent approach to AMI stadium that saw them nullify the Crusaders’ major weapons.
Conor Murray’s seventeen box kicks pegged them back into an astonishing 35% territory and an excellent chasing unit kept even the Israel Dagg, who lead the AllBlacks last season both in tries and metres made under control and camped in his twenty-two.
On average the Crusaders make 93 tackles and score 4.7 tries a game in super rugby, but the Lions put them on the back foot and forced them into 136 tackles and for the first time this season 0 tries.
The Crusaders game was proof the Lions have the talent to win, but having lost the other two of three games against Super Rugby opposition, they lack other necessary elements to their game.
Coaching convention tells us three seconds from the tackle is long enough for a defence to reset. In the Lions’ two losses, we’ve seen them struggle in loose play resulting from relentless attacking speed. Conceding game winning points from what Rob Howley called “rugby chaos”.
Bringing pace to the line didn’t break the Lions open, not even close. Andy Farrell’s defensive unit did well to make 89% of tackles to the Highlanders’ 82%, but tackle accuracy alone doesn’t stop southern hemisphere attacks.
While the Highlanders’ didn’t break the Lions’ defence, their blistering speed brought it to breaking point consistently, and often enough to force a penalty count of 12. No team can control a game when conceding double digit penalties, not even the Lions, and without control they couldn’t win.
Against the Crusaders, the Lions dominated every controllable aspect of the game. Perhaps helped by soggy and slippery conditions they owned the ball with higher possession and territory, ran the line out, squashed the Crusaders at scrum time, and controlled the tempo. Leading them to a comfortable win over Super Rugby’s best team.
Against the Highlanders, and indeed the Blues, they sat as a solid defensive wall, tackled anything that moved, yet were run ragged in loose play.
They lacked a platform from which to launch their pack’s strength, power, and precision. The Lions 66% success at scrum time compared to the Highlanders 100% left a lot to be desired. While their lineout continued to be almost flawless, they lacked the foothold in the game they need to control proceedings.
Could the Lions win super rugby? Yes. Would the Lions win in the southern hemisphere playing southern hemisphere rugby? No. Their only way to conquer the best of Super Rugby is to control all that’s controllable. Be flawless in their set piece statistics, increase their attacking accuracy, and be as infallible in discipline in defence as we saw them in Christchurch.
Comments on RugbyPass
smith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
36 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
9 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
36 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
2 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
36 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
49 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
36 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
36 Go to commentsI’m a pensioner so I've been around a bit. My opinion of SBW is he is an elite athlete and a great New Zealander and roll model. He has been to the top and knows what he's talking about. To all the negative comments regarding SBW the typical New Zealand way, cut that tall poppy down.
17 Go to commentsI'm not listening to a guy moralise over others when this is the guy who walked out mid season on Canterbury RLFC when he had a contract with them, what a hypocrite. All the Kiwis sticking up for this unprincipled individual because they can't accept justified criticism, he has zero credibility or integrity. Those praising him are a joke.
17 Go to commentsI’d put Finau at 6 instead of Blackadder but that’s the only change I’d make. Can’t wait to see who Razor picks.
36 Go to commentsTamati Williams, Codie Taylor, and Same Cane? Not sure about Hoskins Sotutu at test level. Wasn’t that impressive last season. Need a balance between experience and talent/youth.
36 Go to commentsInteresting insight. Fantastic athlete, and a genuine human being.
17 Go to commentsThey played at night in Suva last weekend and it’s an afternoon game forecast for 19 degrees in Canberra this weekend. Heat change is a non issue.
2 Go to commentsWishing Rosie a speedy recovery
1 Go to commentsObscene that SA haven’t been knocking
1 Go to commentsChances of Blackadder being injured seem too high to give him serious consideration. ABs loosie combination finally looked good with 2 committed to tackling and clearing rucks in the centre and Ardie roaming. Hoskins/Ardie together would force one of them into where they don’t excel and don’t get to use their talent, or require a change in tactics. If we continue to evolve last years systems I would take Papali’i and Finau at 6 and 7 (conceding that Blackadder will be injured) and Ardie at 8.
36 Go to comments