The Blues Pero-future is here, and it's better than you think
Inside another lost Blues season lies the promising future of the franchise.
After years and years of searching for a quality first five-eighth, they just may have found one. A deeper look behind the surface reveals that 21-year-old Stephen Perofeta isn’t just a regular 10, he’s an attacking force in the making.
Is he still raw? Yes. Does he make mistakes? Yes. He’s not the finished product but neither was any rookie 10 in their first season of Super Rugby. He’s featured in 13 games this season, starting at first five-eighth 10 times.
His first appearance of the season came in the third match as Bryn Gatland’s replacement against the Lions in South Africa. He first took the field with the Blues down 28-10, and finished his twenty-minute cameo with the Blues winning their first game 38-35. He led a similar second-half fightback against the Stormers the next week which did enough to convince the Blues coaches to hand him the starting role. Outside of one start at fullback, he has played at first-five since.
Control and maturity will come with experience – his option taking has been a little bit wanting at times and his out-of-hand kicking isn’t reliable enough yet. What’s not debatable is his raw attacking ability – when compared to other rivals in his position, the young playmaker outranks nearly all of them.
To measure the efficiency or effectiveness of one’s playmaking or vision, we looked at run/pass totals and the line break/line break assist totals of each first five-eighth to determine who has the best conversion rate. Who is more effective at breaking line, rather than who breaks the line the most.
Those with the lowest ratios show the best return and present the biggest threat. Perofeta’s line break ratio of 5.92 is the best in the competition for a 10, ahead of Damian McKenzie (8.75), Beauden Barrett (9.63), Richie Mo’unga (12.33) and Lima Sopoaga (15.00). He will produce a line break roughly once every six runs, the most productive running game of any first five-eighth.
When it came to ball-playing efficiency, Perofeta ranked second in the competition with a line break assist ratio of 12.00. Only Yu Tamura of the Sunwolves had a better return (11.80), but he only played six games. Close behind Perofeta were the Crusaders pair Mitch Hunt (12.78) and Richie Mo’unga (12.92). The rest of New Zealand’s first fives were also in the top 10 – Lima Sopoaga (14.50), Damian McKenzie (14.55) and Beauden Barrett (15.79) but Perofeta was more effective than all of them.
Whilst the passing totals used to calculate the ratios don’t differentiate between shifting ball early or taking on the line, it does give some insight into ball-in-hand creativity. It also indicates that the Blues may be better served designing plays around Perofeta taking on the line, given that he shows exceptional ability in creating opportunities.
To understand just how good these numbers are, a comparison with fellow rookie first fives paints a better picture. South African stepping whiz Damian Willemse shows a decent LB ratio of 13.83 but a poor LBA ratio of 36.20, illustrating a lack of playmaking in his passing game. The Queensland Reds future flyhalf Hamish Stewart had an LB ratio of 17.0 and an LBA ratio of 29.0, which ranked in the bottom five in both categories.
The Blues have a natural attacking talent that doesn’t just blow his age-peers out of the water, but competes and betters the very best in playmaking efficiency.
You might be thinking that this attacking production is the result of risky play, and the flip side is a kid who is plagued by errors. Whilst he may make the wrong decision (for example, kicking when ball-in-hand looks promising), his actual turnover rate is surprisingly low at 3.13%. That’s better than Richie Mo’unga (3.58%), Beauden Barrett (4.07%), Damian McKenzie (4.33%) and Lima Sopoaga (5.24%).
Perofeta’s weakness is his kicking game, and the Blues have shied away from giving him too much responsibility in this area. He kicks half as much as Barrett or McKenzie, with a higher kick error rate than the two.
This will be an important development area for him, as without it he will never be able to control a game and close out wins with territorial kicking. What Barrett lacks in passing efficiency, he makes up for in predatory anticipation instincts and world-class out-of-hand kicking. He can pull a rabbit out the hat from anywhere, and dictate terms from the back with the boot.
At just 21-years-old Perofeta is the best prospect the Blues have had since Carlos Spencer, and after one season is already proving he will be a majestic playmaker like the King.
The Pero-future is here, and it looks good.
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Comments on RugbyPass
Pick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
15 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
4 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
4 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
26 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
15 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
26 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
15 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
84 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
2 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
4 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
15 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
14 Go to commentsI like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
15 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
15 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
15 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to comments