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An inconvenient truth - The astounding difference in Beauden Barrett's goal kicking percentage based on ball brand

By Ben Smith
Beauden Barrett of New Zealand prepares to kick at goal. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)

Every kicker has their own style and preferences they are particular about, and one of those preferences that can be often widely overlooked is the type of ball being used. Change the ball and you change everything – the shape is different, the weight is different, the sweet spot is different.

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All Blacks flyhalf Beauden Barrett has been no stranger to heavy criticism for his unreliable goal kicking in recent years. It has been the thorn in the side for the back-to-back Player of the Year, particularly this year where his off night against the Springboks in Wellington left a number of points off the board that could have been the difference in the chaotic 36-34 loss.

In exploring a left-field explanation for his up-and-down results, we looked at his goal-kicking statistics when considering the type of ball used and found an astounding difference.

NZR has an exclusive sponsorship agreement with Adidas that covers kit, boots, and the match ball for All Blacks home games. Over his three seasons as the preferred All Blacks 10, Barrett has kicked goals with two brands, Adidas and the old reliable Gilbert.

The sample size is greater for the Gilbert in 2018, but there are enough home games with the Adidas ball to derive some conclusions. When using the Gilbert this year, Beauden Barrett has a world-class 81.8% goal-kicking success rate compared with a miserable 54.5% success rate with the Adidas ball.

That’s nearly a thirty percent difference. Is this is a coincidence?

With the Gilbert, Barrett has kicked 27 from 33 attempts, with only six misses. In three games with the Adidas, he has kicked 12 from 22 attempts, with ten misses. A severely disproportionate amount of his misses have come from using an Adidas rugby ball.

What’s more, Barrett has four games in 2018 with a 100% kicking percentage, all with the Gilbert. Since that fateful Springboks game in Wellington in mid-September, the last home game of the year, Barrett has kicked 23 from 26 with an 88.8% success rate and has only been playing with a Gilbert.

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If we go back to 2016 and 2017, we find a similar disparity, although not as great as 2018.

In 2017 with the Gilbert, Barrett kicked 26 from 30, at a success rate of 86.6% compared with 35 from 45 at a success rate of 77.7% with the Adidas.

In 2016 with the Gilbert, he kicked 24 from 33, at a success rate of 72.7% compared with 25 from 37 at a success rate of 67.5% with the Adidas. In all three years, his performance with the Gilbert has been greater, and the spread has gotten wider and wider each year.

The difference between hot and cold games is also notable, he has kicked a perfect 100% in eight games with the Gilbert compared to just two with Adidas, while a shocking 0% has occurred twice with the Adidas and zero times with the Gilbert. In general, it seems that with the Adidas ball, Barrett is more prone to having an average day.

Over the full three year sample period as All Blacks flyhalf, Barrett’s kicking percentage with the Gilbert ball is 80.2% and with the Adidas ball, it is 69.2%. The disparity is not only undeniable, but the 11% swing is also the difference between world-class and discernibly average.

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Is it a familiarity thing with Gilbert being the ball provider for Super Rugby, and one that Barrett himself trains with regularly?

Whatever the case, with the Rugby World Cup using a Gilbert, All Blacks fans should feel a little less worried if Barrett is lining up a crucial kick.

The statistics definitively show he is a better goal kicker when the old Gilbert is used, but it is an inconvenient truth for the All Blacks and Barrett, who are both sponsored by Adidas.

In other news:

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Jon 5 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

This is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?

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j
john 8 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

But here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.

33 Go to comments
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Adrian 10 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause

33 Go to comments
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