A prediction for the 33-man Springboks Rugby World Cup squad
Spare a thought for Jacques Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus. Whether you’re reading this before or after the Springboks’ match against Argentina in Buenos Aires, the minds of the two old pals will be filled with questions that have no obvious answer.
Do you place faith in specialists or gamble on versatility? Can you bank on the busted knee of an inspirational leader or do you rip the bandaid and go for someone who can promise 80 minutes of action? Is there such a thing as a natural fly-half or can any ball player do a holding job? Are World Cups won with a little bit of inspiration from an ageing warhorse or can a squad ill-afford to carry a liability through the tournament?
To avoid turning this piece into a tome the length of a World Cup winning coach’s autobiography, we’ve condensed this conundrum into six key questions and tried to answer them in the way that we’d go about things, and the way that we think the Boks’ brains trust will lean.
Stick or twist on broken bodies
If Siya Kolisi and Handre Pollard were fit, they’d be the first names on the list of 33 tasked with defending the Springboks’ World Cup crown. The former is not just the most impressive captain the side has ever fielded, he’s also one of the most dynamic loose forwards in the wide trams and a menace when the ball starts seeing some air. The latter is the most accomplished South African 10 in the professional era.
But, and this is a big but, neither are fit. Kolisi hasn’t played for the Boks all year and Pollard last donned the green and gold in August 2022. Risking one place for them would be a gamble. Making room for both, and effectively taking a squad of 31, seems ludicrous.
Kolisi should go to France no matter what. Even if he doesn’t play a single minute, his presence alone would add value. Perhaps this is whimsical nonsense but there are enough South Africans who believe in the power of the Springbok narrative and a good few of them represent or coach the team. Kolisi’s words, as much as his tackles and clear-outs, have contributed to recent successes.
Pollard should only go if he can prove his fitness. If he can’t then the inexperienced Manie Libbok and the versatile, but flawed, Damian Willemse must be trusted to fill the sizable void. Taking Pollard in the hope he comes good would send a message to his deputies that they are not fully backed by the coaches.
There are concerns in other positions as well. Lood de Jager is the Springboks’ line-out general but illness has curtailed his comeback trail after a prolonged absence due to a shoulder injury. He started the Test against the All Blacks on 15 July but a lack of match practice is a worry. Ox Nche is also fighting a race against time. But these two important forwards should be fine once the team is assembled.
Battle in the centres
There are many ways to get over the gainline and both Damian de Allende and Andre Esterhuizen do so in their own way. One uses pumping leg drives and clever weight shifts while the other bulldozes over would-be tacklers from smart scything runs. This is a derivative analysis of two elite athletes but often the vanity of small differences determines who plays.
Both will likely go to the World Cup but there is space for just one in any match-day 23. The same is less true for the two men vying for the number 13 jersey. That there is competition at outside centre has more to do with the drop-off in form from Lukhanyo Am since his injury return and less to do with Jesse Kriel’s reliability. Am was staking a claim to be South Africa’s best 13 in the professional era less than three years ago but he has looked a shadow of his former self, though he had set an extraordinarily high bar. Like Kriel, though, he can operate on the wing which means his, and Kriel’s spot in the camp is secure.
Is there a need for a cheerleader?
Kolisi might not be the only member of the group who contributes more with his words and energy than actions on the pitch. Duane Vermeulen is no slouch, but at 37-years-old, he is the oldest Springbok in the broader group. He still packs a punch, but with younger players able to fill in at No. 8 should Wiese need a break, Nienaber must consider the value of an ageing player.
There is precedent, though. Bobby Skinstad in 2007 and Schalk Brits in 2019 were valued squad players in more ways than one. They stepped up against smaller teams but, more importantly, amplified the abstract variables such as team culture and pride in a group that is fuelled by its own mythology. They spoke to the press, engaged with fans and ultimately put a smiling face on their respective World Cup campaigns. It would be too simplistic to suggest their presence secured the Springboks’ second and third World Cup titles, but it would be remiss to downplay their roles. Perhaps Vermeulen could do the same.
Three spots for five nines
Faf de Klerk seems stuck in an antiquated game plan that he no longer executes with metronomic efficiency. Grant Williams and Jaden Hendrikse are injured. Cobus Reinach has yet to fully win the faith of the coaching staff and Herschel Jantjies has dropped down the pecking order.
In other words, the country of Fourie du Preez and Joost van der Westhuizen has a plethora of scrumhalf options but no obvious candidate. De Klerk is the most assured of a spot. Nienaber and Erasmus have shown loyalty to the victorious group of four years ago and no other half-back understands the Springboks game plan like de Klerk.
If Williams and Hendrikse were both fit they’d likely complete the set, but Reinach’s pace, and his ability to cover wing should he be needed, means he’s at least a contender. Unfortunately for Jantjies, every other rival is at least partially better in most key metrics and will likely miss out.
Is there value in versatility?
Given the Springboks’ tough draw and arduous route to the final, injuries to important figures will be factored into the equation. And if Pollard and Kolisi are included as expected, players who can operate across multiple positions will be invaluable.
Franco Mostert, Kwagga Smith, Deon Fourie and Damian Willemse cover 10 places in the starting XV on their own. Add in Pieter-Steph du Toit and Canan Moodie and you’ve got even more cover. Moodie’s inclusion might be bad news for Makazole Mapimpi who has already been written off by a few journalists and fans on social media.
Klein or Orie
This is a straight shootout. Marvin Orie has been backed by the Boks’ coaches for some time now and has become an integral member of the second row. He hasn’t nudged the trio of Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager and RG Snyman off their perch, and Mostert’s all-round game might make Orie surplus to requirement in the match-day 23, but he’s earned his spot in the wider cohort.
But Jean Kleyn’s recent allegiance switch has thrown a spanner in the works. The Munster lock and former Ireland international brings obvious pedigree. He poses a greater physical threat than Orie and is arguably better suited to the style of rugby they’ll look to play.
But loyalty has to count for something. The Springboks have espoused an ethos that promotes the organisation as more than just a rugby team. Forget the skin colour of the players – which will be an impossible task for some supporters – Orie’s longer investment in the project, and the longer investment in him, might tip the selection in his favour. However, a higher degree of pragmatism would tilt the scale the other way.
Rugbypass’s Springboks squad of 33:
Props: Ox Nche, Steven Kitshoff, Frans Malherbe, Trevor Nyakane, Thomas du Toit, Vincent Koch
Hookers: Malcolm Marx, Bongi Mbonambi
Second rows: Eben Etzebeth, RG Snyman, Jean Kleyn, Lood de Jager
Back rows: Siya Kolisi (c), Jasper Wiese, Duane Vermeulen, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Kwagga Smith, Deon Fourie, Franco Mostert
Scrumhalves: Cobus Reinach, Grant Williams, Faf de Klerk
Flyhalves: Manie Libbok, Handre Pollard
Centres: Damian de Allende, Andre Esterhuizen, Lukhanyo Am, Jesse Kriel
Outside backs: Makazole Mapimpi, Cheslin Kolbe, Willie le Roux, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Damian Willemse
Comments on RugbyPass
Unfortunately when you lose by far the two form players this season in Roigard and Aumua, you're left replacing two game changing Tanks with a couple of pea-shooters. Which is also about the speed of TJs pass.
2 Go to commentsBit rich coming from the guy with zero loyalty to anyone or any team, including happily taking a players place in a league world cup squad because well, SBW wanted to play in it and thus an already named player got told he was no longer going. And airing stuff like this, which may or may not be true, doesn't exactly say you're a stand up guy either SBW. Just looking to keep his name in lights as usual.
35 Go to commentsTamati Tua. …the Taniwha NPC midfielder. Ollie Sapsford, Hawkes Bay NPC midfielder…doing well
2 Go to commentsFiji deserve to be in the rugby championship, fans love seeing the Fijian national team play, the Fijian Drua is a wonderful idea but the players can still be stolen to play for NZ and AUS…
1 Go to commentsThe first concern for this afternoon are wheather forecast…
1 Go to commentsWhy cant I watch Rugby games please?
1 Go to commentsBeautiful shot from Finau, end of story. Gutted for Shaun Stevenson though.
4 Go to commentsThe Chiefs definitely didn’t win ugly. They had the superior scrum, a dominant lineout, and their defence was excellent once the Waratahs scored their two tries (thanks to some lucky refereeing calls mind you). They put pressure on the Waratahs lineout throughout the game, and the mind boggles as to why the referee did not award a yellow card or a penalty try against the Waratahs for repeated scrum infringements on their own try line before Narawa’s first try. And the Chiefs were slick with their passing and running angles on attack. It was a dominant performance all round, even with many questionable refereeing decisions.
1 Go to commentsWasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
4 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
4 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
3 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
33 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
4 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
3 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
33 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
33 Go to comments