Why my head says Wasps won't make the Premiership final - Andy Goode

Away wins in Premiership semi-finals are like hen’s teeth but Falcons and Wasps will be dangerous animals and it can be done.

The away side has only won five times in 27 previous Premiership semi-finals so that tells you everything you need to know about how tough it is to win on the road at this stage of the competition.

I was part of one of those sides exactly 10 years ago yesterday and kicked the winning drop goal for Leicester at Kingsholm. We were lucky to be in the play-offs that year after Tom Varndell scored a late try against Quins to get us there and that did give us a bit of a feeling that it was a shot to nothing but, in truth, Gloucester choked and we took advantage.

We weren’t a great team that season and had Marcelo Loffreda as coach with Richard Cockerill underneath him and there was a lot of friction and disagreements between them. Cockerill was vocal all season to the players and the board with his opinion that Loffreda wasn’t the right man for the job.

Newcastle is a happy camp but there are parallels because we lucky to be there and nobody expected the Falcons to be here. Dean Richards and Dave Walder have admitted that their target was the top six.

Exeter have finished 22 points ahead of Newcastle after 22 games and eight points above Saracens in second place, so of course they are massive favourites to make it to a third straight Premiership final.

That, and the fact that it’s their first ever Premiership semi-final, means it’s definitely a free shot for the Falcons. They’ve even said that themselves and that does make them a very dangerous animal.

Toby Flood being back at fly half makes a big difference as defeat would be a foregone conclusion if they had to go down to Sandy Park without a recognised number 10. His big game experience will be vital and the likes of Vereniki Goneva and Sinoti Sinoti can produce the unexpected so you never know but it’d be the biggest shock in Premiership semi-final history if it were to happen.

Opposite Flood will be Joe Simmonds, who is the James Ryan of the Premiership…he’s yet to lose in 13 outings in the Premiership. It was a hell of a bold call for Rob Baxter to drop Gareth Steenson, who won them the title last season, to the bench but the 21-year-old has been on fire.

He’s not just quietly slotted in either, he’s been running the show. There’s been nothing to suggest that he’ll freeze on the big stage but Deano will definitely look to target him.

Sam Hill and Henry Slade outside him aren’t the biggest either, although they hit plenty hard enough, so I expect to see Josh Matavesi running down that number 10 channel a lot with Goneva and Sinoti coming off their wings as well.

Walder loves to attack from first phase and Joe Simmonds will find himself under a huge amount of pressure and forced to make big decisions in defence as well as attack but I don’t expect he and Exeter to choke like Gloucester did a decade ago.

There is more expectation on Wasps as they’re a couple of years further down the line than Newcastle, having made it to the play-offs for the first time for eight years in 2016 and then gone one step further last season.

And, while they won’t say it openly, the word from inside the Saracens camp is that Wasps are the one team that they are really concerned about facing because of the width they play with and their ability to attack from anywhere.

The problem for Wasps is that their defence hasn’t been befitting of a title-winning side over the course of the last six months and you really need to be on your game in that department when you travel to Allianz Park.

There’s often a stigma around Saracens regarding their style and the fact that they don’t set the world alight but they’ve scored 89 tries in the league this season. That’s 10 more than anyone else has managed.

Their game suits knockout rugby perfectly as well, whereas Wasps’ record in these winner takes all matches hasn’t been anywhere near as good in recent years. They’ve been the nearly men.

Again, the fly half battle is fascinating with Danny Cipriani capable of being the best player on the pitch by a country mile or overplaying his hand and struggling with Saracens’ line speed but Owen Farrell offering the pragmatism and consistency that you can rely on in a semi-final.

Wasps put 64 points on Sarries at Allianz Park during the Six Nations in 2016 and I’ve not doubt that will have been mentioned in the dressing room in terms of the threats they pose but it won’t be like that today and the power of the home side might just prove too much to handle.

The heart says a Wasps v Newcastle final but home advantage is crucial in Premiership semi-finals and Exeter and Saracens are the top two for a reason, so the head says it’ll be them facing off at Twickenham next weekend.