Why my head says Wasps won't make the Premiership final - Andy Goode
Away wins in Premiership semi-finals are like hen’s teeth but Falcons and Wasps will be dangerous animals and it can be done.
The away side has only won five times in 27 previous Premiership semi-finals so that tells you everything you need to know about how tough it is to win on the road at this stage of the competition.
I was part of one of those sides exactly 10 years ago yesterday and kicked the winning drop goal for Leicester at Kingsholm. We were lucky to be in the play-offs that year after Tom Varndell scored a late try against Quins to get us there and that did give us a bit of a feeling that it was a shot to nothing but, in truth, Gloucester choked and we took advantage.
We weren’t a great team that season and had Marcelo Loffreda as coach with Richard Cockerill underneath him and there was a lot of friction and disagreements between them. Cockerill was vocal all season to the players and the board with his opinion that Loffreda wasn’t the right man for the job.
Newcastle is a happy camp but there are parallels because we lucky to be there and nobody expected the Falcons to be here. Dean Richards and Dave Walder have admitted that their target was the top six.
Exeter have finished 22 points ahead of Newcastle after 22 games and eight points above Saracens in second place, so of course they are massive favourites to make it to a third straight Premiership final.
That, and the fact that it’s their first ever Premiership semi-final, means it’s definitely a free shot for the Falcons. They’ve even said that themselves and that does make them a very dangerous animal.
Toby Flood being back at fly half makes a big difference as defeat would be a foregone conclusion if they had to go down to Sandy Park without a recognised number 10. His big game experience will be vital and the likes of Vereniki Goneva and Sinoti Sinoti can produce the unexpected so you never know but it’d be the biggest shock in Premiership semi-final history if it were to happen.
Opposite Flood will be Joe Simmonds, who is the James Ryan of the Premiership…he’s yet to lose in 13 outings in the Premiership. It was a hell of a bold call for Rob Baxter to drop Gareth Steenson, who won them the title last season, to the bench but the 21-year-old has been on fire.
He’s not just quietly slotted in either, he’s been running the show. There’s been nothing to suggest that he’ll freeze on the big stage but Deano will definitely look to target him.
Sam Hill and Henry Slade outside him aren’t the biggest either, although they hit plenty hard enough, so I expect to see Josh Matavesi running down that number 10 channel a lot with Goneva and Sinoti coming off their wings as well.
Walder loves to attack from first phase and Joe Simmonds will find himself under a huge amount of pressure and forced to make big decisions in defence as well as attack but I don’t expect he and Exeter to choke like Gloucester did a decade ago.
There is more expectation on Wasps as they’re a couple of years further down the line than Newcastle, having made it to the play-offs for the first time for eight years in 2016 and then gone one step further last season.
And, while they won’t say it openly, the word from inside the Saracens camp is that Wasps are the one team that they are really concerned about facing because of the width they play with and their ability to attack from anywhere.
The problem for Wasps is that their defence hasn’t been befitting of a title-winning side over the course of the last six months and you really need to be on your game in that department when you travel to Allianz Park.
There’s often a stigma around Saracens regarding their style and the fact that they don’t set the world alight but they’ve scored 89 tries in the league this season. That’s 10 more than anyone else has managed.
Their game suits knockout rugby perfectly as well, whereas Wasps’ record in these winner takes all matches hasn’t been anywhere near as good in recent years. They’ve been the nearly men.
Again, the fly half battle is fascinating with Danny Cipriani capable of being the best player on the pitch by a country mile or overplaying his hand and struggling with Saracens’ line speed but Owen Farrell offering the pragmatism and consistency that you can rely on in a semi-final.
Wasps put 64 points on Sarries at Allianz Park during the Six Nations in 2016 and I’ve not doubt that will have been mentioned in the dressing room in terms of the threats they pose but it won’t be like that today and the power of the home side might just prove too much to handle.
The heart says a Wasps v Newcastle final but home advantage is crucial in Premiership semi-finals and Exeter and Saracens are the top two for a reason, so the head says it’ll be them facing off at Twickenham next weekend.
Comments on RugbyPass
Ardie’s preferred position 7? Where do they get these writers from? I've no idea where he's playing in Japan, but the previous two seasons he wore the 7 jersey exactly twice.
17 Go to commentsNot good to hear Ulster described as “financially troubled”. Did not think it was getting to that level. I would hope the Irish system of spreading players of talent away from Leinster would kick in now. Better to have a Leinster fringe player with Ulster or Connacht, then getting only a few games a season in Dublin. 10, for example, would seem to be a case for spreading the talent. I would not be at all adverse to a SA man coming in as head coach/DR. Ludeke is worth trying. Certainly got a long and impressive coaching career at this level…..149 games in SR, then Japan, 30 years experience. And Ulster’s ledger of successful SA coaches and players is on the positive side. Is talk of Ruan Pienaar interested in coming back as a coach…..could be a good combination with Ludeke. And Pienaar and family would have no settling in to do, one would judge. He loved life in Ulster when there, by all reports.
1 Go to commentsSome thoughts to consider here, Sam. Thanks
2 Go to commentsI think he is right, SBW is respected in RSA. The guy who never stood up is a worm. Sseems lots of NZ SBW hate, you do the crime do the time.
11 Go to commentsAfter missing the curfew, the player was simply too “Shagged” to stand up.
11 Go to commentsVernier is probably the best 12 in the world though she has some English competition these days . I am nervous for England because it is unpredictable France and who knows which team will turn up, but they have not yet shown anything that should worry England, Saturday could be a different day. I would be more confident against the BFs.
1 Go to commentsWhat a difference Rodda and Carter made. Rodda has been out for ages but he is really the only world class lock in Australian rugby. Him, Carter and Beale made a huge difference on the weekend. If only they had a few decent props they’d be a much more dangerous team. Hamish Stewart was excellent last week as well. His carrying has improved significantly and has to be next in line after Paisami at 12 for the Wallabies. He’ll benefit hugely with Beale at fullback, there’s just no better communicator in Australian rugby than him and his experience will make a huge difference for the Force. No one sees space like Beale and he’s still sharp. I can see Force making a late charge into the top 8 if they can get some consistency.
2 Go to commentsRodda will be a walk up starter at lock. Frost if you analyse his dominance has little impact and he’s a long way from being physical enough, especially when you compare to Rodda and the work he does. He was quite poor at the World Cup in his lack of physicality. Between Rodda and Skelton we would have locks who can dominate the breakdown and in contact. Frost is maybe next but Schmidt might go for a more physical lock who does their core work better like Ryan or LSL. Swain is no chance unless there’s a load of injuries. Pollard hasn’t got the scrum ability yet to be considered. Nasser dominated him when they went toe to toe and really showed him up. Picking Skelton effects who can play 6 and 8. Ideally Valetini would play 6 as that’s his best position and Wilson at 8 but that’s not ideal for lineout success. Cale isn’t physical enough yet in contact and defence but is the best backrow lineout jumper followed by Wright, Hanigan and Swinton so unfortunately Valetini probably will start at 8 with Wright or Hanigan at 6. Wilson on the bench, he’s got too much quality not to be in the squad. Paisami is leading the way at 12 but Hamish Stewart is playing extremely well also and his ball carrying has improved significantly. Beale is also another option based on the weekend. Beale is class but he’s also the best communicator of any Australian backline player and that can’t be underestimated, he’ll be in the mix.
8 Go to commentsWhy do people keep on picking Ardie at 7 when he's a ball in hand 8? A modern 7 is the lead tackler and ruck clearer which isn't his strength.
14 Go to commentsSly dig there at Ireland’s propensity to back a non-Irish coach. Must really want it. I’m not sure I like ROG very much. Comes off as unpleasant. But he’d gain my respect if he took a number 7 ranked team and turned them into WC winners. Not even back-to-back. Argentina? Scotland? Or how about Wales? France would be too easy, no?
1 Go to commentsA bit of sensationalism, but surprised by the comments about SBW. I’ve always thought of him as a pretty authentic person. There is nothing worse than working with a colleague you’ve seen straight through.
11 Go to comments100% agree with your comment about Touch. I’ve been playing it competitively since Covid. It’s on a Wednesday night after work. It means the weekend is free for time with my family.
2 Go to commentsRodda back is massively important for the Wallabies. Kaitu at hooker important too coz he was very good a few years ago.
2 Go to commentsThe pink cabous might be eligible this year and the Boks don’t need him
8 Go to commentsNasser and kaitu are options for hooker. Especially Nasser. You forgot Rodda who touch wood will be fit at test time and if fit he’s number one. Great partner for the great Skelton and Oz best lineout caller. Third best lock is LSL whom I’d be inclined to sub on for Skelton around 60 minutes. Probably start valetini at 8 because I like a big body back there. Cale should play 6 at the brumbies. For Wallabies definitely cale in the squad but as an apprentice. Dunno who starts at 6 seru wright Swinton hanigan with Will Harris and Harry Wilson not far away. Seru and Swinton my front runners but Swinton is going. Still if we don’t cap seru then Fiji must coz they need his lineout skills and easily compensate for his lack of weight
8 Go to commentsYeah but who was it?
11 Go to commentsThink you might have written this just before the Brumbies got thrashed last weekend
8 Go to commentsI really do believe that Billy Proctor should be selected at least in the larger squad but also it would be my choice at 13, much more a center than Ioane who can still play at wing. Roigard if fit should play, otherwise it should be Perenara or Christie. Also, Iose could deserve a spot at blindside. Of course, being a Canes supporter I’m biased but I really believe that at least Billy P is deserving a chance and being Holland one of the Selectors, I’m having a little hope he could grab it.
14 Go to commentsI would not play Swinton I’d pick Wright or Hanigan. The rest are decent starters, but can’t agree on any subs except Tupou. My take on the subs: Gibbon, Ueslese, Tupou, LSL, Wilson, White, Will Harrison, and Petaia.
8 Go to commentsSBW the biggest moron to pull on a black jersey a park footy player at best
11 Go to comments