It was probably the tour match the Wallabies did not think they would lose. Having toppled England at Twickenham and crushed Wales in Cardiff, Australia would have been expecting to munch Scotland at Murrayfield. It was another staging post en route to the climactic Grand Slam game versus Six Nations champions Ireland in Dublin next weekend.
Scotland relishes the ‘underdog’ tag, and the six changes Joe Schmidt made to his winning side at the Principality stadium suggested the opposition had been underestimated. Aussie selection played into Scottish hands. While one replacement at centre was predictable, with Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i returning after Samu Kerevi’s ban ruled him out of contention, the selection merry-go-round in the back five forwards especially was more surprising.
Was the green-and-gold frozen in the headlights of 1984, hypnotised by the prospect of an historic repetition of the Grand Slam success achieved by Alan Jones’ men? A clue to the truth was hidden in the subtext to Schmidt’s post-match comments after the Wallabies’ conclusive 27-13 loss:
“It was intense. I thought like we were in the contest and we probably should have converted a few more points in that first half, particularly with the pressure we had.
“[Our attacking] breakdown was pretty messy, and I think that’s just the way Scotland like it. It makes it very difficult to construct your play.
“You try to learn from anything and every moment of the game and, for us, there’s plenty to learn.
“We made some good line breaks and got nothing off the back of them, kicked one away, knocked one on, and you’ve got to be better than that in a tight game.
“Our skill execution was a bit off today. Defensively we worked really hard in the first half and I thought we defended really well, but in the second half there’s a fair bit to tidy up.”
What do you notice about the weight and angle of these comments, dear reader? There are three paragraphs about what the Wallabies might have achieved on attack, and three short lines at the end on the defects in their defence. In a game where Scotland scored four tries to one – and creating nine clean breaks to the Wallabies’ two – what is the real priority for Australia?
There is a worrying sense the Wallaby wobbles on D have secondary status to what is happening with ball in hand; not an afterthought, but of slightly less importance compared to the amount of quick ball produced at the offensive breakdown, the chances created and the points harvested from entries to the red zone.
ALMOST an incredible counter-attack try from Australia!😳
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— Autumn Nations Series (@autumnnations) November 24, 2024
Every coach has an inbuilt bias, a slight favouritism between play with the ball or play without it. It is not a criticism, it is a statement of where interest ignites and curiosity climbs. Schmidt’s bias has always been on the attacking side: when he was rushed in to help Ian Foster with the 2023 All Blacks, it was primarily to coach play with ball. The outcome is the Wallaby defence is not improving on the same steep curve as the offence.
Australia conceded 28 tries in six matches in the recent Rugby Championship, to finish dead last. After three matches on their end-of-year tour they have shipped another 11. Does an improvement from 4.7 tries per game to 3.7 constitute enough of an upgrade? The ‘Australia XV’ conceded another six tries in a 38-17 defeat by a scratch England A at the Stoop. That reinforces the point: is ironclad defence ranking high enough on the Wallaby agenda?
Scotland and their head coach Gregor Townsend obviously thought not, because they made a clear determination to keep ball in hand whenever they could. They only kicked 17 times in the game compared to Australia’s 23 and forced the Wallabies to kick to touch more often, giving them the lion’s share of the lineout throws [21 to Australia’s 14].
The key was Scotland’s ability to attack effectively off their own lineout feed, and the Wallabies’ failure to find enough convincing answers to the questions posed by Finn Russell and co. The rich attacking opportunities created could yet catapult all three of Townsend [as attack coach], 10 Russell and 12 Sione Tuipulotu into the 2025 British and Irish Lions reckoning, and carry them all the way into the starting Test XV.
Both Townsend and his defence coach with Scotland, man of Neath Steve Tandy, are in pole position to reprise their roles from the 2021 visit to South Africa under Andy Farrell, although Tandy may come under pressure from England’s missing man Felix Jones for the defence role. Townsend himself was coy about the prospect:
“I don’t know. [Andy’s] still the Ireland coach. I think now is the time where he moves on from Ireland next week, and becomes Lions coach. So no, there’s not been any contact.”
If Townsend does tour with Farrell in 2025, he will undoubtedly bring the base pattern from attacking lineout which is so productive for Scotland with him. That pattern features the ‘triple threat’ of Tuipulotu at first receiver, with 13 Huw Jones coming short and Russell drifting in behind for the wider play.
Tuipulotu’s ability to kick through, run with power and pass short or behind represents a Gordian Knot for the defence. The Aussie-born Scotland skipper has a delicate touch on the shorter attacking kicks, and on the short pass to his partner in crime Jones.
Australia found out all they needed to know about his raw power in only the 22nd minute.
Andrew Kellaway, with the left shoulder, and Len Ikitau, with the right, have the opportunity to get a clean shot on the ex-Melbourne Rebel, but neither can even slow him down, let alone stop him. Ikitau did not enjoy life in defence against his opposite number, and when Sua’ali’i moved in to have his own say in the matter, he came off much the worse.
All the cards are stacked in the defender’s favour as Tuipulotu cuts back in off the sideline on a switch, but it is the ex-leaguer who comes off second best in the collision, with the Scotland skipper bouncing straight back to his feet and the new green-and-gold sensation finished not just for the game, but potentially the rest of the tour with a wrist injury. Beyond the immediate horizon, it raises serious questions about the viability of an Ikitau-Sua’ali’i partnership against the Lions in 2025.
Once the threat of Tuipulotu’s straight-head power was established, Scotland could begin to polish and embroider their other options off it.
With three Wallaby defenders fully occupied by Tuipulotu and number seven Rory Darge outside him, the Victorian native can play his second trump, a pull-back ball to Russell, with a three-on-two available – Russell plus Jones plus giant wing Duhan van der Merwe versus Sua’a’li’i and left wing Harry Potter. If Jones catches the pass from his 10, he is through the line and into the space beyond a bewildered Sua’ali’i.
It may have been a busted play, but Townsend understood the value of such moments. The attacking nettles not grasped in the first half would still be available in the second.
“I think it depends if you’re glass half-full, or glass half-empty.
“I think there were opportunities there – off a lineout when it looked like Huw Jones was through a gap, and there was another pass that didn’t go to hand when we could have had [two] line breaks.
“While they were frustrating, it was also a message to say to the players those opportunities will still be there. We just need to execute them better.”
What was only wistful possibility in the first period became solid concrete in the second.
It’s not perfect, but by the final quarter Scotland had firmly established all their midfield options off lineout were working. Despite the presence of big ex-Leicester Tiger Potter in the Wallaby front line, another live Lions contender, diminutive wing Darcy Graham, burrows his way through in the first instance to set up a try for bench back-rower Josh Bayliss, rumbling through the very space Potter vacated.
The outcome on the next phase after on the short-ball option was the same a few minutes later.
Australia’s attack had been building nicely on tour. The Wallabies ran riot in the first two matches, scoring 13 tries and making 22 clean breaks versus England and Wales. That all came to screeching halt against Tandy’s unforgiving Scotland defence, with the two totals dwindling back to one try and two breaks.
The potential presence of Tandy and Townsend in the Lions tour party should highlight questions about the state of the Australian defence in angry red. It has improved since the Rugby Championship, but the increments have been small compared to the upsurge with ball in hand.
Can a novice Ikitau-Sua’ali’i midfield duo stand up under the scrutiny Russell, Marcus Smith, Tuipulotu, Bundee Aki, Garry Ringrose and Ollie Lawrence will bring on attack? Glass half-full or half-empty, that prospect looks perilous indeed right now.
I am more optimistic than this. There are concerns, yes. And Ireland will be more than tough, But on the weekend the biggest issue was one of one missed tackles - 3 tries came from them. Tackles the players will make 9 times out of 10. A lot of 50/50 calls, where more 70/30 in favour of Scotland. Such as an attacking opportunity under advantage that the ref called back when he could have played it out. Tizzano won some ball fairly that got called against him. A couple of questionable non offside calls. Late pulls out didn't help. I can see why LSL was called to start. Although it didn't help the line out especially with Skelton already there. The discipline fell down this ganm, but there is plenty to work with.
Can you dismiss the missed tackles as aberrations though - esp in the light of the second game in Argy?
I would hesitate to do so,as you have to tally the positives along with the negatives...
If you read the comments about Schmidt today on the other place by former Irish players about how charming Schmidt was to start with and then became very bitter and nasty, this is not going to end well.
If it was bad with the tolerant Irish it's going to be doubly worse with laid back amiable Australians.
Since he also led them to a period of unprecedented success, frankly who cares?
And beating the ABs for the first time in their history - no fit there for the Kiwi 'plant' theory!
But just for the record:
Doesn't sound like bloke who has lost the sheds does it?
You've confirmed that all Irish people are tolerant? And we are all laid back?
Oh and Schmidt's record for Ireland was quite impressive. Slightly better than even some randwick based coaches.
This is a bit of a misread about the Wallabies goals on this tour Nick. For Joe a grandslam would have been nice but the goal has always been the Lions, thus the chopping and changing. No one in Australia expected the Wallabies to beat Scotland, there was hope but not anything more than that.
I didn't like Joe saying "we're not trying to win the grand slam". I wish he'd said "we're 2 from 2 on this tour, we're going to give winning a grand slam a real good shake".
This is only the 4th shot at a grand slam post 1984, be bullish about replicating what that side achieved. If you're going to fail, be aspirational about it.
Who is misreading the situation though TC?
You gain momentum through winning. If you won unexpectedly [England, the margin v Wales] you double down on it - so the plan should have been adjusted after the Wales win.
Nobody has yet come up with adequate explannation for that selection in the back five forwards, prob because it doesn't exist.
I am bothered by our D. The attitudinal issues we saw against Argentina were hopefully a one off but there were signs of similar lackadaisical efforts on Saturday.
That said, we could hardly have been more disrupted in our prep and intra-game this week. It feels like our defensive patterns rely more heavily on connection than others and chopping and changing personnel hurts disproportionately.
Why Schmidt decided to make so many changes makes little sense to me.
This week is critical - a truly statement game. Fall apart and any optimism after Wales is lost. Take it deep and we can sustain the optimism
Rugby league seems full of defence masterminds and Australia is the home of league. Gotta be someone the Wallabies could poach?
There are still some alarming holes in the Aussie game within the context of a big overall improvement DM.
Great comment. It takes time for understandings to build, esp in the centres.
I would have liked the same back five forwards as against Wales play v. Scotland with Frost, Uru and McReight.
With Skelton unavailable, it was much more natural to go back to Williams-Frost-Wilson-Valetini/Tizzano/FMR for Ireland.
ABs fan and def biased to want to see Wallabies go well and Scotland def played better but….
Tuipolotu was clearly off side in 2 of the biggest plays of the match first on try with intentional overthrow he has made his run well past 10 meters before travelled over 15
And Aussie breakout Tate poor choice cross field kick Tuipolotu does well but he never gets back behind tackle
Funny how the TMO was desperate for Chris Busby to sin bin Tom Wright yet he was asleep at the wheel for Scotland's 1st try.
Speaking of the ref, he's lucky Scotland won by more than 7 and that the Wallabies were their own worst enemy because he was abysmal. He let Scotland play the ball off their feet and wasn't anywhere strict enough on the Scots rolling away incorrectly which forced the Wallabies to seal off a few times.
With regards to the first one, the end on replay showed that he never went back the ten in the first place!
Although the only time I can ever remember a TMO enforcing that one was DMac in the 2023 Super Rugby final against the Crusaders.
Did you see the team? Slipper in which is surprising. Wilson in again and no Uru but Frost and Williams in. Happy to see Edmed get a crack. I feel for Kailea as he played well I thought.
It's a tidy side and it should be an excellent contest. Pity they missed the boat v Scotland is all.
I don't mean they can afford it, I mean they are dumb enough to spend even more of the Lions tour income before they get it
What was Eddie, $3m over budget at the WC??