LONG READ Why the Wallabies' Murrayfield munching offered a worrying glimpse of the Lions showdown

It was probably the tour match the Wallabies did not think they would lose. Having toppled England at Twickenham and crushed Wales in Cardiff, Australia would have been expecting to munch Scotland at Murrayfield. It was another staging post en route to the climactic Grand Slam game versus Six Nations champions Ireland in Dublin next weekend.

Scotland relishes the ‘underdog’ tag, and the six changes Joe Schmidt made to his winning side at the Principality stadium suggested the opposition had been underestimated. Aussie selection played into Scottish hands. While one replacement at centre was predictable, with Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i returning after Samu Kerevi’s ban ruled him out of contention, the selection merry-go-round in the back five forwards especially was more surprising.

Was the green-and-gold frozen in the headlights of 1984, hypnotised by the prospect of an historic repetition of the Grand Slam success achieved by Alan Jones’ men? A clue to the truth was hidden in the subtext to Schmidt’s post-match comments after the Wallabies’ conclusive 27-13 loss:

“It was intense. I thought like we were in the contest and we probably should have converted a few more points in that first half, particularly with the pressure we had.

“[Our attacking] breakdown was pretty messy, and I think that’s just the way Scotland like it. It makes it very difficult to construct your play.

“You try to learn from anything and every moment of the game and, for us, there’s plenty to learn.

“We made some good line breaks and got nothing off the back of them, kicked one away, knocked one on, and you’ve got to be better than that in a tight game.

“Our skill execution was a bit off today. Defensively we worked really hard in the first half and I thought we defended really well, but in the second half there’s a fair bit to tidy up.”

What do you notice about the weight and angle of these comments, dear reader? There are three paragraphs about what the Wallabies might have achieved on attack, and three short lines at the end on the defects in their defence. In a game where Scotland scored four tries to one – and creating nine clean breaks to the Wallabies’ two – what is the real priority for Australia?

There is a worrying sense the Wallaby wobbles on D have secondary status to what is happening with ball in hand; not an afterthought, but of slightly less importance compared to the amount of quick ball produced at the offensive breakdown, the chances created and the points harvested from entries to the red zone.

ALMOST an incredible counter-attack try from Australia!😳

📺 Live on @rugbyontnt 🔥#SCOvAUS #AutumnNationsSeries pic.twitter.com/fKqA7c5Qcn

— Autumn Nations Series (@autumnnations) November 24, 2024

Every coach has an inbuilt bias, a slight favouritism between play with the ball or play without it. It is not a criticism, it is a statement of where interest ignites and curiosity climbs. Schmidt’s bias has always been on the attacking side: when he was rushed in to help Ian Foster with the 2023 All Blacks, it was primarily to coach play with ball. The outcome is the Wallaby defence is not improving on the same steep curve as the offence.

Australia conceded 28 tries in six matches in the recent Rugby Championship, to finish dead last. After three matches on their end-of-year tour they have shipped another 11. Does an improvement from 4.7 tries per game to 3.7 constitute enough of an upgrade? The ‘Australia XV’ conceded another six tries in a 38-17 defeat by a scratch England A at the Stoop. That reinforces the point: is ironclad defence ranking high enough on the Wallaby agenda?

Scotland and their head coach Gregor Townsend obviously thought not, because they made a clear determination to keep ball in hand whenever they could. They only kicked 17 times in the game compared to Australia’s 23 and forced the Wallabies to kick to touch more often, giving them the lion’s share of the lineout throws [21 to Australia’s 14].

The key was Scotland’s ability to attack effectively off their own lineout feed, and the Wallabies’ failure to find enough convincing answers to the questions posed by Finn Russell and co. The rich attacking opportunities created could yet catapult all three of Townsend [as attack coach], 10 Russell and 12 Sione Tuipulotu into the 2025 British and Irish Lions reckoning, and carry them all the way into the starting Test XV.

Both Townsend and his defence coach with Scotland, man of Neath Steve Tandy, are in pole position to reprise their roles from the 2021 visit to South Africa under Andy Farrell, although Tandy may come under pressure from England’s missing man Felix Jones for the defence role. Townsend himself was coy about the prospect:

“I don’t know. [Andy’s] still the Ireland coach. I think now is the time where he moves on from Ireland next week, and becomes Lions coach. So no, there’s not been any contact.”

If Townsend does tour with Farrell in 2025, he will undoubtedly bring the base pattern from attacking lineout which is so productive for Scotland with him. That pattern features the ‘triple threat’ of Tuipulotu at first receiver, with 13 Huw Jones coming short and Russell drifting in behind for the wider play.

Tuipulotu’s ability to kick through, run with power and pass short or behind represents a Gordian Knot for the defence. The Aussie-born Scotland skipper has a delicate touch on the shorter attacking kicks, and on the short pass to his partner in crime Jones.

Australia found out all they needed to know about his raw power in only the 22^nd minute.

Andrew Kellaway, with the left shoulder, and Len Ikitau, with the right, have the opportunity to get a clean shot on the ex-Melbourne Rebel, but neither can even slow him down, let alone stop him. Ikitau did not enjoy life in defence against his opposite number, and when Sua’ali’i moved in to have his own say in the matter, he came off much the worse.

All the cards are stacked in the defender’s favour as Tuipulotu cuts back in off the sideline on a switch, but it is the ex-leaguer who comes off second best in the collision, with the Scotland skipper bouncing straight back to his feet and the new green-and-gold sensation finished not just for the game, but potentially the rest of the tour with a wrist injury. Beyond the immediate horizon, it raises serious questions about the viability of an Ikitau-Sua’ali’i partnership against the Lions in 2025.

Once the threat of Tuipulotu’s straight-head power was established, Scotland could begin to polish and embroider their other options off it.

With three Wallaby defenders fully occupied by Tuipulotu and number seven Rory Darge outside him, the Victorian native can play his second trump, a pull-back ball to Russell, with a three-on-two available – Russell plus Jones plus giant wing Duhan van der Merwe versus Sua’a’li’i and left wing Harry Potter. If Jones catches the pass from his 10, he is through the line and into the space beyond a bewildered Sua’ali’i.

It may have been a busted play, but Townsend understood the value of such moments. The attacking nettles not grasped in the first half would still be available in the second.

“I think it depends if you’re glass half-full, or glass half-empty.

“I think there were opportunities there – off a lineout when it looked like Huw Jones was through a gap, and there was another pass that didn’t go to hand when we could have had [two] line breaks.

“While they were frustrating, it was also a message to say to the players those opportunities will still be there. We just need to execute them better.”

What was only wistful possibility in the first period became solid concrete in the second.

It’s not perfect, but by the final quarter Scotland had firmly established all their midfield options off lineout were working. Despite the presence of big ex-Leicester Tiger Potter in the Wallaby front line, another live Lions contender, diminutive wing Darcy Graham, burrows his way through in the first instance to set up a try for bench back-rower Josh Bayliss, rumbling through the very space Potter vacated.

The outcome on the next phase after on the short-ball option was the same a few minutes later.

Australia’s attack had been building nicely on tour. The Wallabies ran riot in the first two matches, scoring 13 tries and making 22 clean breaks versus England and Wales. That all came to screeching halt against Tandy’s unforgiving Scotland defence, with the two totals dwindling back to one try and two breaks.

The potential presence of Tandy and Townsend in the Lions tour party should highlight questions about the state of the Australian defence in angry red. It has improved since the Rugby Championship, but the increments have been small compared to the upsurge with ball in hand.

Can a novice Ikitau-Sua’ali’i midfield duo stand up under the scrutiny Russell, Marcus Smith, Tuipulotu, Bundee Aki, Garry Ringrose and Ollie Lawrence will bring on attack? Glass half-full or half-empty, that prospect looks perilous indeed right now.