LONG READ URC season preview: How will the four Irish provinces fare?

In the four years of the United Rugby Championship since the arrival of the major South African sides, it is still Ireland who can lay claim to being the dominant force of the five competing countries.

They have topped the regular-season table in all four editions to date (Leinster three times, Munster once), provided 12 of the 32 quarter-final places, one more than South Africa, and eight of the semi-finalists (South Africa six).

While Irish teams have only reached the final twice, compared to five appearances between the Bulls and Stormers, they have made it count, with Munster’s stunning triumph in Cape Town in 2023 and Leinster – who won the last four Pro14 titles – earning their first URC crown in June, while Stormers’ inaugural triumph remains South Africa’s lone success.

Will the pattern continue this season? It seems unlikely Leinster will fall from their lofty perch anytime soon, but can Munster, who suffered a heartbreaking quarter-final loss to the Sharks in a penalty shoot-out last term, rise again after the retirement of several legends?

Will Connacht, semi-finalists in 2022-23, flourish under the direction of new head coach Stuart Lancaster, and can Ulster, who finished third, second and sixth in the first three years of the URC, recover from their fall to a lowly 14^th place last season?

RugbyPass assesses the prospects of all four provinces with the new URC season poised for lift-off on Friday.

CONNACHT

Ins: Sam Gilbert (Highlanders), Harry West, Finn Treacy, John Devine (all promoted from academy)

Outs: Santiago Cordero (Regatas), Conor Oliver (Ealing), Piers O’Conor (Edinburgh), Andrew Smith (Munster), JJ Hanrahan (Munster)

First 5 games: Benetton (H), Scarlets (H), Cardiff (A), Bulls (H), Munster (A)

Strengths:

Stuart Lancaster returning to Ireland and being given the keys to his very own province gave Connacht a huge boost after an uncertain and troubled time. The Westerners went into last season with high hopes of finishing well up the URC standings and going deep in the Challenge Cup. By January, those league ambitions looked forlorn. It was resting on a good cup run, until Racing 92 came to Galway and edged a 10-try thriller by three points.

Former head coach Pete Wilkins stepped down from the role after a period away from the province on sick leave. By landing Lancaster, Connacht have a recognisable name in the top seat, one with a proven track record of success and someone that should attract prospects and established players out West.

Connacht certainly do not have the deepest roster but will trouble sides whenever they are able to get most of their big guns on deck. Mack Hansen, Shayne Bolton and Chay Mullins could make a potent back three, while Lancaster has exciting scrum-halves in Ben Murphy and Matthew Devine to jostle for the No.9 jersey with Ireland international Caolin Blade. Bundee Aki and Finlay Bealham should be buoyed by their Lions experiences Down Under.

Weaknesses:

That lack of squad depth. Many Connacht fans may have figured Lancaster would get a couple of foreign recruits and could reach out to his old team, Leinster, for young guns seeking more senior minutes. In reality, the province had done most of their 2025/26 business before the Englishman came on board. Kiwi winger Sam Gilbert is a solid acquisition but he arrives with Andrew Smith heading to Munster and Santiago Cordero now back in Buenos Aires.

Ben Murphy, centre Hugh Gavin and lock Darragh Murphy all return to the province having picked up international debuts over the summer, but still have much to prove if Andy Farrell is to include them in a squad with his returning Lions.

Lancaster will hope to spin both competition plates, but the URC should be his priority. An eighth-place league finish and knock-out rugby would be big achievements.

Opposition teams will be going hard after Connacht’s front five, which will be made up from a mix of guys learning their trade and veteran options.

The main fly-half options are 33-year-old Jack Carty and Josh Ioane, who was decent but turned few heads last season. This could be the year Seán Naughton gets the big nudge at 10, while Cathal Forde can also fill in. Lancaster will be hoping that one man can break free of the rest, allowing him to build the attack around that.

Verdict:

Connacht find themselves in a favourable Challenge Cup pool, so it will be tempting to chase that competition. Lancaster will hope to spin both competition plates, but the URC should be his priority. An eighth-place league finish and knock-out rugby would be big achievements.

LEINSTER

Ins: Rieko Ioane (Blues), Fintan Gunne, Gus McCarthy, Andrew Osborne, Diarmuid Mangan, Hugh Cooney, Niall Smyth, Charlie Tector, Alex Usanov (all promoted from academy)

Outs: Jordie Barrett (Hurricanes), Lee Barron (Munster), Michael Milne (Munster), Ross Byrne (Gloucester), Liam Turner (Nevers), Rob Russell (Gloucester), Rory McGuire (Ulster), Ben Brownlee (North Harbour), Cian Healy (retired)

First 5 games: Stormers (A), Bulls (A), Sharks (H), Munster (H), Zebre (H)

Strengths:

How tempting it is to simply list 25 blockbuster names from their squad list and add that they have a club legend and two-time World Cup winner at the head of their coaching ticket.

Leinster’s biggest strength is the ability to almost run two full squads at different stages of the season. Solid pros like Ross Byrne, Liam Turner and Rob Russell move on as there are queues upon queues of bright young stars pushing through the front door. When you look at players stepping up from academy to senior contracts, four already have Champions Cup experience.

Leinster’s pack is stacked with internationals or soon-to-be internationals and sets the platform for a glittering backline to pierce sides from all angles. Jamison Gibson-Park is the relentless pusher, prodder and sniper, with Caelan Doris and Josh van der Flier two absolute handfuls. Sam Prendergast should be even better for another full season behind him and the experience of leading Leinster to URC glory, back in May.

Leo Cullen and Jacques Nienaber have six Ireland internationals that can all vie for the two centre positions, and three that all want to be starting hooker. Of all Leinster’s many strengths, having Dan Sheehan, Rónan Kelleher and Gus McCarthy as frontline hookers is perhaps the biggest.

Oh yes, and Rieko Ioane is arriving in December.

Weaknesses:

While Leinster went a long way to shrugging off the big game chokers tag with their URC Grand Final win over the Bulls, their fans will still be nervous in tight contests.

Being harsh on a side that won 19 of the 21 URC games and breezed through the knock-out stages, Leinster look light on the wings. James Lowe is 33 and was not at his best on the Lions tour, Jordan Larmour has dipped off since a tremendous first few years at the top, Andrew Osborne still has much to prove and Tommy O’Brien has often been dogged by long-term injuries.

The potential weakness for Leinster is how they cope when 18 to 20 of the squad get called away on international duty.

Doris will miss the start of the season and Hugo Keenan is not expected to return until 2026. That leaves the coaching staff with a world-class player to replace at full-back. Jimmy O’Brien may get a run, but it will be interesting to see if Jamie Osborne is considered there.

The potential weakness for Leinster is how they cope when 18 to 20 of the squad get called away on international duty. Winning or losing those games in the international window can often determine a home run through the knock-outs or heading to Scotland or South Africa.

Verdict:

A scarily good team with big-name players all over their match-day squads. Even when a host of world-beaters are on international duty, the likes of Luke McGrath, Rabah Slimani, Will Connors and Tommy O’Brien can steer the ship with the latest wunderkinder, straight off the Leinster production line. Heavy favourites to retain their title.

MUNSTER

Ins: JJ Hanrahan (Connacht), Andrew Smith (Connacht), Dan Kelly (Leicester Tigers), Lee Barron (Leinster), Michael Milne (Leinster), Evan O’Connell, Ruadhán Quinn, Kieran Ryan, Fionn Gibbons (all promoted from academy)

Outs: Billy Burns (Shimizu Koto Blue Sharks), Jack Oliver (Glasgow), Rory Scannell, Jack Daly and Liam Coombes (released), Patrick Campbell (Ealing), Scott Buckley (Ealing), Cian Hurley (Southland), Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray, Dave Kilcoyne, Stephen Archer (all retired)

First 5 games: Scarlets (A), Cardiff (H), Edinburgh (H), Leinster (A), Connacht (H)

Strengths: In captain Tadhg Beirne, they have one of the best locks in world rugby, and a lad that can slot in at blindside for a stacked team like the Lions. Munster’s most loaded unit is the second row, with Jean Kleyn another adopted son and proven performer. Thomas Ahern has long been touted as a big-game player and he will be desperate to get a decent run of starts after making his Ireland debut in the summer.

Craig Casey and Jack Crowley would put it up to the best 9-10 offerings of most URC sides and have stepped up big in recent seasons. Tom Farrell was a great signing, from Connacht, in 2024 and Munster can now pair him up with either Alex Nankivell or Dan Kelly, acquired from Leicester Tigers.

The Munster back three may not have the Earls or Zebos of bygone seasons, but Calvin Nash is a known quantity, Andrew Smith and Thaakir Abrahams had bright spots in Europe while Diarmuid Kilgallen is a real handful when he gets going. The assured Mike Haley, meanwhile, is much, much better than his sole Ireland cap suggests.

Time will tell whether Clayton McMillan will prove to be a key strength for Munster but his track record with the Chiefs, in Super Rugby, is impressive. Five successive seasons making it to the play-offs and finalists (albeit losing) in the past three.

Weaknesses:

A huge loss of experience, quality and leadership. In the past three seasons, Keith Earls, Simon Zebo, Andrew Conway, Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray, Stephen Archer and Dave Kilcoyne have all finished up. The Munster squad looks dangerously shallow right now.

When they won the URC Grand Final in 2023, some of the older guard opted to stay on for a Champions Cup push and to help newer players bed in. Two years on and you ask yourself who has really kicked on. Casey and Crowley, yes, but that may be the height of it.

Perhaps unfairly, these lads will be compared to legends from the 2000s and early 2010s. That is the added privilege and pressure that comes with playing in Munster red.

With no O’Mahony around to tear into teams and wind lads up, who will be the back-row tyro for Munster? There have been high expectations around Alex Kendellen and John Hodnett for a while but they need to reach greater levels for their team to stand a chance of being competitive. Gavin Coombes is a fine player, too, but there are questions over whether he can find that extra gear to be ever considered truly great.

Take Casey or Crowley out of the picture and Munster look light in the half-backs. It is similar in the front row. Perhaps unfairly, these lads will be compared to legends from the 2000s and early 2010s. That is the added privilege and pressure that comes with playing in Munster red.

Verdict:

I genuinely worry for Munster, given the vast depths of experience they have lost over the past 12 months. Some massive names have departed the stage and McMillan will need some young players and new signings to rapidly learn what is required to cope with dual URC and Champions Cup demands.

ULSTER

Ins: Angus Bell (Waratahs), Juarno Augustus (Northampton), Sam Crean (Saracens)

Outs: John Cooney (Brive), Kieran Treadwell (Harlequins), Aidan Morgan (Toyota Verblitz), Corrie Barrett, Michael McDonald and Matty Rea (released), Alan O’Connor, Andrew Warrick and Reuben Crothers (all retired)

First 5 games: Dragons (H), Edinburgh (A), Bulls (H), Sharks (A), Lions (A)

Strengths:

Cormac Izuchukwu continues his impressive rise with the province and made three Ireland appearances, as well as scoring a hat-trick against Exeter, last season. If Joe Hopes or Charlie Irvine can start pushing through for meaningful second-row minutes, it might free Izuchukwu for a run at blindside. Put him in with Nick Timoney and Juarno Augustus in the No.8 jersey and you have yourself a formidable back row.

Augustus may prove to be a most astute signing. He had injury issues in 2023-24 but looked the part for Northampton last season, particularly in the Champions Cup semi-final win over Leinster.

Some of Ulster’s recent foreign recruits have been busts – Marcell Coetzee was the last real success story – but getting Angus Bell feels like canny business. Used by Joe Schmidt as an impact sub with the Wallabies, Ulster will want some starting bang for their buck. Backing him up will be Eric O’Sullivan and Sam Crean (signed from Saracens). Rob Herring should have more time to focus on his provincial duties while Tom Stewart will be desperate to push on with meaningful starts to press his Ireland case.

In the backline, Stuart McCloskey is a certified banger while Jacob Stockdale showed a welcome return to form last season.

Weaknesses:

Ulster took a punt on Kiwi fly-half Aidan Morgan but head coach Richie Murphy was not convinced. From the outside looking in, there is no nailed-on starter at 10. Jake Flannery has 10 starts in five seasons of professional rugby while the other options are Jack Murphy – son of Richie – and James Humphreys – son of IRFU performance director, David Humphreys.

Jake, James or Jack. Ulster fans will not care what J hits, as long as one properly takes charge. At a time like this, it was odd that the province allowed John Cooney to leave. The experienced scrum-half and accomplished goal-kicker is now with Brive and may be dearly missed.

It is hard to see Ulster finishing in the upper echelons of the league standings. If they can end up anywhere from sixth to eighth, it will be marked progress.

Richie Murphy backed Nathan Doak as his main scrum-half last season, but the 23-year-old won on only four of his 16 starts in the position. He was the hot prospect a few years back, but needs to impose his will on more games in the coming months.

The province recruited well at loosehead but tighthead may be an area opposition sides seek to chase them. Tom O’Toole is Test quality at his best but capable of loose moments and lacks true consistency. Scott Wilson looked handy, at times, last season and will be targeting more starts, while Rory McGuire is the latest forward recruit heading up the M1 from Leinster.

Verdict:

Being in the Challenge Cup may prove a blessing in disguise. Murphy should toss most of his eggs in the URC basket and try to make Affidea Stadium (Ravenhill) a fortress again. It is hard to see Ulster finishing in the upper echelons of the league standings. If they can end up anywhere from sixth to eighth, it will be marked progress.

RugbyPass is assessing the prospects for all teams in the URC. In case you missed them, here is our look at the four South African sides and the four Welsh regions. Look out for the Italian and Scottish teams to come later.