LONG READ ‘There’s nothing to fear for Australia. They should embrace the freedom of Eden Park’

For the last 22 years, this has been the most nervous week on the calendar for the Australian rugby fan: the lead-in to the Eden Park Bledisloe Cup match.

As it happens I was out of action for a big chunk of last week and so disconnecting from the whole ‘woe is New Zealand’ narrative wasn’t difficult. It’s continued this week to a lesser degree, but I didn’t buy it last week and still don’t buy it now.

The All Blacks will only surrender the Bledisloe Cup when Australia prizes it from their bloody, bruised, clinging-on-to-the-very-end hands. And even then, only after two wins.

There is just no way they will give it up without a fight. The performance against South Africa in Wellington will have no impact on the Bledisloe Cup whatsoever.

But there is definitely an opportunity, starting on Saturday at Auckland’s famed Eden Park.

The All Blacks are currently in perhaps the most un-All Blacks form we can remember. For whatever weight you put on stats sheets, the official Rugby Championship numbers note that the All Blacks, after four rounds, have made half as many clean breaks as Australia and South Africa, have beaten the fewest defenders, are carrying the least of the four teams by a good margin, have made only half the metres (meaning they play without the ball a lot), and have offloaded less than the other three teams.

New Zealand also trail all three other TRC teams in metres per carry, and trail South Africa and Australia in terms of proportion of carries leading to a line break.

All of that needs to be forgotten, essentially. Because the Wallabies can only win back the Bledisloe Cup if they help themselves.

In addition, they’ve picked up five yellow cards for the tournament. The Wallabies, Springboks and Pumas have six between them.

Put it all together and it’s easy to see the point of view that the Wellington loss really shouldn’t be viewed as an anomaly, when perhaps the All Blacks haven’t been playing nearly as well as has appeared.

But all of that needs to be forgotten, essentially. Because the Wallabies can only win back the Bledisloe Cup if they help themselves. Here are three things that should be front of mind.

Set-piece strength must hold

I referred to the strength of the Wallabies set-piece a month ago, and their record has only got better since.

After not losing a scrum in three Tests against the Lions, the Wallabies have now gone 26 from 26 through four TRC games against South Africa and Argentina, taking them up to 54 scrums won in 2025. The solitary loss came against Fiji in the first Test of the year.

It’s more than a bit mind-blowing to see the Wallabies atop a ‘scrums won’ tally, with a 100% record to boot.

But after the Springboks did more than just put the New Zealand pack under pressure, the Wallabies need to see this as an area they can look to exploit themselves. Early scrum ascendency often lasts deep into games these days, so early rewards can be long-lasting.

The Wallabies lead the All Blacks in terms of lineouts won as well, while Nick Frost has carried his exceptional lineout stealing form from Super Rugby and the Lions Series into the TRC as well.

It’s still not getting the headlines or making the highlights reels, but if they can maintain these set-piece advantages, the Wallabies can definitely lay a strong platform from which to play and attack.

Maintain the space and time

Australia were guilty of over-playing their hands and especially over-egging the offload in the first half of the Sydney Test against Argentina, but were able to work their way back into the game by going back to what had been working well in previous weeks.

While the Wallabies’ attacking shape isn’t all about ‘just get it to Suaalii’, the great improvement has come from playing to the big outside centre well before the line and giving him the space and time to play to his instincts. His rapidly growing combination with Len Ikitau on his inside has been well documented, but it’s been equally noticeable how well he’s linked up with Andrew Kellaway coming in from full-back – and vice versa.

Suaalii is combining well with Max Jorgensen down the right edge too, and if he can increase his linkage with Corey Toole on the left as well, then the Wallabies will certainly continue leading the way in clean breaks.

It’s unlikely the All Blacks will allow any disconnects in their defensive line, however, which will make crash-ball running ambitious out wide, but Australia should certainly look to continue using the space they have been able to find out wide.

Key to this, as always in the face of outside line speed, is going to be the speed and regularity they can get the third pass away and to further exploit the space in behind the outside rush defender.

There has been space and time for the Wallabies all tournament and there will be more again this weekend. Patience and calm heads will find the rewards – but not if they persist with the over-playing from the first half in Sydney.

Respect Eden Park, but don’t fear it

This might be the most important point of the three. Knowing the All Blacks will respond in Auckland and suggesting this year is the Wallabies’ best chance at regaining the Bledisloe is not zero sum. Both can be true; they’re not mutually exclusive.

But knowing the response is coming shouldn’t preclude the Wallabies from playing this game as if it was any patch of turf anywhere. The incredible record in Auckland – 51 Tests unbeaten since 1994 – places almost no pressure on the Wallabies, and almost all of it on the All Blacks.

They can forget the records, forget the so-called hoodoo and all that, and just run out there and play. Playing with house money, they are.

Only one team will have to live with the label of being the first team to lose at Eden Park.

The Wallabies really should be approaching this game as if they’re playing with penalty advantage. It’s essentially a free hit, in that with no real expectation to win – the pundits in New Zealand saying Australia can win, most certainly don’t want them to – they can forget the records, forget the so-called hoodoo and all that, and just run out there and play. Playing with house money, they are.

When they do run out there and play, that’s when they’ll find themselves against a vulnerable team playing with a huge amount of pressure on them. It’s hanging directly above the All Blacks’ heads.

They cannot be the first All Blacks team to lose at Eden Park.

The Wallabies have the recent experience of Johannesburg and knowing that once the scoreboard starts working for you, the name of the ground essentially doesn’t matter.

I’m quite sure this will be part of Joe Schmidt’s message this week. No-one thought you could win at Ellis Park. No-one thinks you can win at Eden Park. But you actually have the ability to win at both hallowed grounds, all in the space of six weeks.

There’s nothing to fear this week for the Wallabies. They should embrace the freedom.