LONG READ 'The Wallabies need to convert much better - or Melbourne could be much worse'

Viewing the first Lions Test result against the pre-game predictions of 25-point thumpings and series annihilations, the Wallabies are right to be latching on to the positives they can and should take out of the 27-19 loss. But they already know they cannot let opportunities slip again in Melbourne this weekend, or the scoreline might be closer to those ugly expectations.

Australia made the same post-contact metres as the Lions, played nearly three-quarters of the game in the Lions half, won more scrums and lineouts, and more turnovers. They also passed more and kicked less, and given some of the success they had with contestable kicks, this feels like an easy adjustment to make within a week.

So, they certainly had chances. They had possession and territory. It was just an inability to capitalise on it all – in the face of an outstanding Lions defence – that denied them the opportunity to place the illustrious tourists under greater stress.

The second half was a perfect illustration of this.

Already down 17-5 at the break, the last thing the Wallabies needed was to concede an early try and allow the Lions to build an unassailable lead. Sadly, that’s exactly what happened, and it happened because the Wallabies opened the door for it.

Just 47 second-half seconds had elapsed when Matt Faessler launched an almighty lineout throw on the Lions’ 10-metre line, a throw Tom Curry, standing in the insert/receiver spot, reacted to before the Australians, racing to the back of the lineout and navigating referee Ben O’Keeffe, before tapping it up to himself in the face of rapidly arriving Wallabies winger Max Jorgensen.

The Wallabies showed encouraging flashes in the second half of their first Test loss to the Lions, but they can’t afford to squander so many opportunities.

The Lions lit up their counterattack, put the ball through several sets of hands to release Huw Jones, who after being denied in the first half was denied again, brought down 10m short by desperate defence. Jamison Gibson-Park looked right, but sent one more phase to the left, before playing wide right to Jones again, then to Curry again, who put Dan Sheehan over in the corner.

Only 75 seconds into the new half, 17-5 became 24-5.

In the 50^th minute Tadhg Furlong was penalised for his high cleanout on Len Ikitau – one of those collisions that immediately looks illegal, but was rightly mitigated down by O’Keeffe factoring in Ikitau’s very sudden change in height.

The Wallabies won this lineout, but lock Jeremy Williams had a little look and spilled the ball on the 10^th phase, and just as the Wallabies had crossed the Lions 10m line again. Building pressure was lost.

The Lions forced a maul turnover in the 53rd minute, but then Curry caught replacement hooker Billy Pollard shortly after. The Wallabies played six phases away after that lineout, before skipper Harry Wilson was held up over the line after the Australians had earned penalty advantage for the Lions being offside. Another release.

The Lions copped their formal warning for repeated infringements in the 59^th minute, and Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i’s 60^th-minute crash ball run off a five-metre scrum was scrubbed out after he was ruled to have not released in the tackle prior to being dragged in-goal and grounding the ball over the line.

More points were spurned, and it got worse for the Wallabies after O’Keeffe and TMO Richard Kelly found enough benefit of definite doubt about Curry using his arms in the tackle on Sua’ali’i.

The Lions won a scrum penalty on 61 minutes, and Harry Wilson’s speculator grubber teased but never bounced conveniently for Harry Potter in the 64^th minute.

My scrawled notes of that moment read, “AUS not getting the Will Jordan bounce”. The All Blacks’ try-scoring freak crossed for yet another Test try from yet another great bounce only a matter of hours earlier in Hamilton.

But those 24 minutes underline my point: a lineout overthrow for a conceded try, a knock-on 10 phases after a lineout, a held-up try after another lineout, a disallowed try following that, and the non-bounce of the Gilbert.

Skelton and Valetini may not both start, and perhaps the pack might balance out better if they don’t, but the two of them coming back into the 23 somewhere will certainly make a positive impact to the Wallabies gain line metreage.

Correct even just three of those five things, and there’s easily more points on offer.

And yes, there will be a popular train of thought the Lions had put the cue in the rack at 24-5 but that’s immaterial to the Wallabies, who still needed to play out the remaining 38 minutes from that score.

There will be a reaction from the Lions at the MCG. Of course there will.

Just as New Zealand endured a week of reflection after the first Test against France was a lot closer than widely predicted, and beat the French comfortably a week later, the Lions will aim to wield their dominance properly and seal the series in the process.

The Wallabies know their best rugby has to be in front of them, just as they know the Lions’ best is likely still coming as well. And if the Lions get everything right on the night and the Wallabies don’t, well… the pre-Test forecasts could easily be proven correct.

“Some of our collision area work has to bet better, just because we know they’re coming so hard there,” Australia coach Joe Schmidt said post-match.

“There were a few things in the lineout I think we can tidy up, and in contrast, I thought the scrum was very strong. I thought the scrum did a really good job of exerting a bit of pressure back on them.

“I felt the bench really added value when they came on. In that last 20 or 25 minutes, we did get a bit of momentum.

“There was enough demonstration we were already desperate, but we’ve got to be more accurate. We’ve got to be less submissive early in the game, and we’ve got to hit the ground running.”

Schmidt was also quick to point out Lions counterpart Andy Farrell could easily say the same kind of thing, highlighting both sides were held up over the line more than once.

“They are going to be better. They have strength and depth,” Schmidt said expectantly. He’s spot on, of course.

We know what happened in the second half here and we roll into the second game knowing full well what happened in 2013.

And Farrell knows there will be an Australian reaction. He said as much deliberately and early in the Lions presser before Schmidt spoke.

“We do take encouragement from the display, but at the same time we know what is coming,” he said.

“We know what happened in the second half here and we roll into the second game knowing full well what happened in 2013. When an Australia team becomes desperate, it is difficult to handle, so we expect a different game next weekend.

“Not only was this Australia’s second game and they’ll be much better because of that, but also because of what it means to them and how proud they are. It’ll mean the world to them.

“We need to make sure we are ready for them to be at their best. It will take a better performance than what we’ve shown here to make sure we get a win next week.”

One thing is for sure for the Wallabies: mass change is not required. It never is the answer.

There will certainly be tweaks when the team is named on Thursday, however, with Schmidt declaring Will Skelton and Rob Valetini will be fit and available. They may not both start, and perhaps the pack might balance out better if they don’t, but the two of them coming back into the 23 somewhere will certainly make a positive impact to the Wallabies gain line metreage.

But changes won’t be a silver bullet. It’s vital they do make the corrections highlighted straight after the game.

This has to be the most productive training week in these Wallabies’ lives. But imagine what it does for the team – and the series – if they can square it all up in Melbourne.