LONG READ 'The stakes are high, with a bad decision or two likely to have painful consequences.'

“What’s sad is that many fans of rugby in Wales have lost interest. If there’s a regional game on TV in the clubhouse, only the older boys will follow what’s happening. In the sports club down the road, televised rugby is just wallpaper, whereas everyone used to take a look. These days hardly anyone knows the players coming through and they don’t feel part of it.

“There isn’t the buy-in. Indifference is the norm.”

So ran a recent contribution to a group chat of which this writer is a part.

The individual who chipped in with those words once unfailingly attended a couple of matches a week. Back in the day, he could have returned a decent score had he been invited onto Mastermind to answer questions on Welsh rugby past and present. Now? Let’s just say his interest is being tested.

It isn’t just that he feels disenfranchised, like many others who have never fully embraced the regional game and who have wearied of looking on with their noses metaphorically pushed up against elite rugby’s window, not fully feeling part of it all.

Just as significantly, he has also grown tired of the seemingly neverending politicking, the interminable rows over money and the threats, questionable calls and self-interest that continue to blight the game in Wales close on 30 years after the sport went professional.

No one can be certain the events of recent weeks will smooth a path to a brighter future. Indeed, setting out on a course that could lead to reduced funding for Ospreys and Scarlets, the two most successful regions in terms of league silverware, or even the eventual demise of one of them, appears a road that should be dotted with ‘SLOW DOWN’ or ‘PROCEED WITH  CAUTION’ signs every 20 yards.

Others will have different opinions, of course, for that is the way of the world. But how much faith can we have that the Welsh Rugby Union are on the right track with this one? The regions have made mistakes over the years, but so have Welsh rugby’s governing body, something they readily admitted.  Too often, their decisions have called to mind the scene from Yes Minister where the hapless Jim Hacker declares: “When the country is going downhill, it’s time for somebody to get into the driving seat and put his foot on the accelerator.”

WRU missteps have been known to brighten our lives, of course. This is the organisation, remember, that once responded to a request from a Cardiff Bay address for a £19.99 slice of Millennium Stadium turf with the words: “No available shipping methods for your location.”  Track even further back to a draw for the old Welsh cup when many of those listening via their radios were sure they could hear balls crashing to the floor before South Wales Police were pulled out of the bag twice, to play Newbridge and Cross Keys in the same round if memory serves correctly. Happy days.

But not so happy any more.

With Ospreys and Scarlets concerned over parity of funding, amid worries the WRU could turn Cardiff into a super-club to the detriment of the other Welsh professional teams, the two west Wales regions declined to sign the new agreement.

Circumstances seem to have swept the WRU along this time. Rewind a month or two and they appeared on the point of securing a long-awaited deal with all four regions that would have given Wales greater control over players in return for more funding, but with Cardiff Rugby going into temporary administration the union stepped in to assume control of the Arms Park outfit.

With Ospreys and Scarlets concerned over parity of funding, amid worries the WRU could turn Cardiff into a super-club to the detriment of the other Welsh professional teams, the two west Wales regions declined to sign the new agreement. The WRU responded by serving the pair with two years’ notice terminating the old deal. Headlines suggesting a region would likely be cut in due course duly followed.  Cue a thousand stories and even more podcasts to microscopically assess what had happened, or could happen.

What are we left with? A 24-carat mess. Arguably worse than we started with. Four-strong regional unity, if it ever existed, is cracked, possibly for good; relations between the WRU and the west Wales teams have taken a direct hit; supporters of rival sides are trading arguments and sometimes insults online. There have been no reports of pistols at dawn, but it’s still early days.

Anyway, Cardiff and Dragons now appear threat-free as the former are union owned and the latter chose to sign up for the new agreement with the WRU. But Ospreys and Scarlets will head into the summer with uncertainty for company. Expect the temperature in Welsh rugby to rise even further in the weeks and months ahead.

Is there a better way of doing things? Or is this the union coming up with their own version of The Art of the Deal, acting tough to persuade those across the table to fall in line? Just leave those questions out there.

There is a counter-view, one that maintains losing a region wouldn’t be without cost, with the governing body having a contractual commitment to provide four sides for the URC. Estimates suggest significant financial penalties if those obligations were not met.

If the regions were to shrink to three, advocates of such a move suggest there would be more to go around for those still in the boat, potentially offering them a greater chance of competing for trophies in the United Rugby Championship and the Champions Cup. The argument further runs that right now Wales doesn’t have enough quality players to justify a quartet of professional teams, anyway.

But there is a counter-view, one that maintains losing a region wouldn’t be without cost, with the governing body having a contractual commitment to provide four sides for the URC. Estimates suggest there would be significant financial penalties if those obligations were not met. Union chief executive Abi Tierney actually highlighted this point after the union took over Cardiff.

There could also be a drop in TV income with one fewer team for broadcasters to cover, while if the changes in the WRU development pathways yield the results the union hope for, would three regions offer sufficient opportunities for young Welsh players to step up to the professional scene without having to head over the border to England?

Just as concerning is the potential for more people to feel disengaged from the game in Wales at a challenging time. Call it the walk-away scenario, with scope for a significant swathe of the population to turn their backs on the oval-ball sport in this part of the world and find something else to do with their time if they no longer feel sufficiently involved or represented at elite level.

Problem-free solutions, it goes without saying, are not lining up waiting to be picked off the shelf, albeit plenty are willing to offer opinions.

Some would argue results should drive any decision to reduce funding. On this basis, the Dragons would be in the firing line: they have never won a title and finished bottom of the URC this season.

Some would argue results should drive any decision to reduce funding. On this basis, the Dragons would be in the firing line: they have never won a title and finished bottom of the URC this season, with just a solitary success against their name.“Would anyone notice if they turned into a development region?” acidly asked one commentator this writer spoke with.

You bet some out east would pick up on it. Also, there are a lot of clubs in the Gwent area and aspiring youngsters need role models.

Others will feel the WRU shouldn’t have been so quick to throw a lifeline to Cardiff, while Ospreys have seen their support-base crash of late. They will hope the trend is reversed when they move to St Helen’s next term.

Look closely enough and there are issues at all the regions.

But it does seem particularly blunt to potentially downgrade Scarlets, who have qualified for next season’s Champions Cup, and Ospreys, who have won four league titles, with both regions having also been reliable and consistent suppliers of players for Wales over the years.

Quite where all this will end up no-one can be certain.

If the funding cake is to be cut unequally, the fairest way to do it would be to consider a range of factors, among them results, production of players for Wales, commercial potential, management and ground situation. But just weeks ago the WRU were hopeful they could continue with four equally funded teams.

Really, a renewed attempt to secure Welsh involvement in a league with English clubs is needed, because success on that front would reinvigorate the scene in Wales as surely as anything else would. But such a goal seems frustratingly out of reach.

So we are left with more arguments and counterarguments ahead.

Given the union’s track record over the years, you would not blame fans for a sense of trepidation about making the right calls.

But the stakes are high, with a bad decision or two likely to have painful consequences. Welsh rugby isn’t so buoyant that it can afford for interest to wane further.