LONG READ As the balance of power shifts away from Ireland, has Andy Farrell got his Lions calls right?

The British and Irish Lions tour narrative became a whole lot more interesting after Leinster’s home defeat by Northampton in the Champions Cup. At that point, a mystery became an intrigue and the twists and turns of the sub-plot multiplied. Up until the 2024 Six Nations, it had been plain sailing, and the boat was clearly coloured emerald green. All Ireland, Ireland, Ireland. Even the selection of Andy Farrell’s assistants in the coaching booth confirmed an overwhelming Irish bias.

There were only two voices from outside the country – England’s senior coach Richard Wigglesworth and Scotland forwards specialist John Dalziel – to counter-balance the five-strong Irish panel of defence mentor Simon Easterby, attack coach Andrew Goodman, scrum guru John Fogarty, recent ex-player Johnny Sexton, and Farrell himself.

More recently, cracks have appeared in the monolith of Irish dominance over the other three nations who make up the Lions quartet. After losing to Ireland in the first round of this year’s Six Nations, England finished more strongly in the second half of the championship; winning their home tie against eventual champions France where Ireland lost theirs heavily, and scoring a massive 115 points against cellar-dwellers Wales and Italy where the men in green struggled to overcome both nations.

Last weekend, Premiership champions Northampton edged out a star-studded Leinster side which comprised anywhere between two-thirds and 90% of the national starting XV during the Six Nations. The captaincy of the tourists had been seen as a two-horse race between Ireland’s Caelan Doris and England’s Maro Itoje, but the choice tilted decisively in the direction of the ex-Harrow School product at the weekend.

Doris sustained a shoulder injury during the 34-37 defeat and the damage ruled him out of the tour of Australia. And when the head of the team changes, much of its intelligence changes with him.

It is not only the foreground picture which is shifting rapidly. In the more strategic background, the IRFU recently asked its four provinces to contribute more money towards the cost of national player contracts – up 10%, from 30% to 40%. The funds saved will be earmarked for streamlining the player pathways in Munster, Ulster and Connacht.

As ex-Scotland and Leinster coach Matt Williams rightly observed in his Irish Times column, it could lead to the sort of unwanted levelling out which simply hauls Leinster back to the chasing pack and leaves Ireland without one outstanding team:

“The IRFU must ensure the policy implements the old saying that ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’.

“While raising the standards of the other three provinces is essential for the good of Irish rugby, of equal importance is that the policy does not drag Leinster down.

“If Leinster’s performances were to deteriorate, then so too would the Irish national team.”

The zeitgeist is moving fast, and Irish rugby is feeling the heat at all levels of the professional game.

If you picked a 38-man Lions squad in the immediate, giddy aftermath of that Leinster-Northampton semi-final, containing 21 forwards and 17 backs and in the absence of Doris, there would probably be more England players in it than Irish.

Eleven English forwards compared to six from Ireland, with five backs apiece. The big question is, would Farrell be prepared to forego the Irish ‘weighting’ prior to the event and switch his selectorial allegiances?

In the event, he was not. Despite the absence of Doris, the balance still favoured Ireland with 15 Irishmen and 13 English selected and nine forwards from Ireland and eight forwards from England. Whenever there was a 50/50 choice to be made up front, the nod went to Ireland – Ronan Kelleher ahead of Jamie George, James Ryan for the injured George Martin. No room for either Jack Willis or Courtney Lawes in the back-row.

But at least, there is always Henry Pollock. The precocious Saints open-side provided a shorthand for the sea change that occurred in Dublin. Josh van der Flier has always been nailed on to make Farrell’s Lions, and he has been highly instrumental in a growth of the open-side’s role over the last four or five years. Nowhere was that growth more evident than in the 2022 series between Ireland and New Zealand, where JVDF convincingly outpointed All Blacks’ skipper Sam Cane because of his extra ball-carrying ability.

Van der Flier and Pollock enjoyed excellent games and would have been close to the top in any polling for the best their club had to offer on the day. Here is a comparison of the pair’s raw stats.

Pollock not only matched Van der Flier’s effectiveness on the carry, he showed a true seven’s instinct to cut the corners and operate in the grey area at the defensive breakdown, and this became an important factor in Northampton’s success as the game unfolded.

Leinster had active possession of the ball for 21 minutes of game time, which means Pollock made a defensive contribution at the tackle and post-tackle on average twice for every minute the hosts kept ball in hand. The nature and quality of those involvements was an essential feature of Saints’ ability to slow Leinster down on attack.

Pollock showed a special talent for evading the first cleanout throughout the game, and Leinster very rarely scored a clean knockdown on the youngster at the first attempt. That enabled him to make a second effort, reach over and gets hands on the ball at the back of the ruck as it formed. The outcome was delayed delivery to Jamison Gibson-Park and a fracturing of blue-and-gold momentum. In the second clip, Pollock is ‘off feet’ quite literally as the referee calls for release, but he has already done the job he is paid to do.

A critical sequence at the end of the first half with Leinster looking to regain a foothold in the match underlined the young open-side’s value.

First Alex Coles reaches over on to ball at the base, then Pollock ‘double-digs’ as the ball goes to ground at the next ruck, meaning more slow ball for Gibson-Park. Pollock passes off the next ruck, before his slightly taller look-a-like Coles wins turnover at the final breakdown.

The 20-year-old already plays well beyond his years, with a Richie McCaw-like instinct to explore the nuances of breakdown law and take the shortcut in any scenario.

Another reach-over slows down the first ruck delivery, then Pollock skips straight across the face of the next breakdown, rather than circling around behind it, to put himself in position A1 to make the following tackle.

On the other side of the ball, Pollock showcased an innate ability to read defences, along with the range of passing and sheer acceleration needed to exploit them, typical of a modern top-drawer seven.

That screenshot could be copied as a template for any forward wondering how to pass out of the first line and into the second line of attack: stay square to the defender opposite to engage them, keep your two options outside [pass flat, or behind] alive until the very last moment, remain sympathetic on the delivery when you finally make your choice.

The climactic semi-final in the boiling hothouse of the Aviva Stadium showed Pollock is ready for a higher level of play. If he can not only survive, but thrive in that environment, he will have no problems on a Lions tour of Australia.

The larger question of whether Farrell’s selection did true justice to the relative strength of the four nations as they are right now, remains stubbornly open. There is still an Irish majority, which would have been fully justified up until the end of 2024. But the character of the current season thus far has been painted in different colours, far more white than emerald green, and the Lions have already started their race a couple of steps off the pace.