Winchelsea, nestling in leafy East Sussex, is reputedly the smallest town in England, and home to a mere 600 people. It was once the centre of the medieval wine trade, and there are as many as 50 magnificent cellars networking underground to prove it, like a huge subterranean root system. The stature of the town above does not give any hint of the life below the surface.
If you explore the grounds of Saint Thomas’ church, you will probably stumble on the grave of Irish comedian Spike Milligan, cast in the shape of a Celtic Cross. The words upon it translate as “I told you I was ill.”
It was Milligan’s final joke, and as understatements go, it was one of the best. New Zealand rugby supporters all around the world will probably applaud and appreciate that sense of humour, because to say that there is a lot of uncertainty in New Zealand rugby at the time of speaking would be an understatement of similar proportions.
The All Blacks have just completed a 2024 season in which they finished with 10 wins out of 14 matches. The 71.4% win rate achieved by Scott ‘Razor’ Robertson so far is only one single percentage point ahead of his much-vilified predecessor Ian Foster, and it has debunked any fanciful notions that he would be the saviour of the All Blacks.
It is not a bad start by any means, but it has done nothing to allay some deep-seated fears about the state of the game. The sense of uncertainty which currently belies the All Blacks filtered into the post-tour argument about the status of overseas players in selection. In the blue corner Sir John Kirwan, bouncing up and down on his toes, insisting New Zealand sticks to its historical model, shaking off the doubts like sweat.
“There is absolutely no way that our country can afford to pick people from overseas, it’s an absolute joke and most people that want to be picked from overseas are those that have already left,” Kirwan commented on Sky Sports Breakdown.
“This is a fragile, fragile world. Has it helped Australia? Australia did it, and they’ve gone backwards. We can never ever compete with overseas money so what we need to do is try and find a solution to keep our best players.”
JK then looked to land a big right hand by implying the drop in win rate from the heights of the Henry/Hansen era disqualified players from reaping the financial rewards of sabbaticals in Japan.
“I like [the Japanese sabbaticals] but what the players need to realise is if you go to Japan, you’ve got to win [with the All Blacks].
“So apparently, they aren’t going to happen anymore because the players that have gone overseas have not won.”
If those comments represent the impulse to circle the wagons and form a laager around New Zealand rugby, then the words of media pundit Scotty Stevenson told a very different story. He came out jabbing from the red corner, and looked to claim the centre of the ring.
“South Africa’s eligibility rules are very clear. You can go and play club rugby, franchise footy overseas, and you are still going to get picked. Rassie Erasmus started 51 [different] players in Tests [in 2024] – 51 players! We’re talking about the All Blacks lightly blooding [only] 12 new caps this year.
“We are wondering how we catch up with South Africa while indulging ourselves in an act of self-sabotage. The reason the Springboks are strong is because they have opened up their eligibility pool. They want the best players in the world playing for the Springboks, then pick them from wherever they are.”
Robertson himself climbed out of zebra-striped neutrality and explicitly favoured the South African policy: “They get the opportunity to use a lot of experienced players, looked after and managed well into their thirties. They have got a great balance: youth coming through, good benches, they finish over top of teams and they have got big squads.”
How would a loosening of the eligibility rules affect New Zealand? Stevenson was right to suggest there would be no mass exodus of Kiwi talent to England, France and Japan. Having lost three of its shareholder clubs in Premiership Rugby to administration in traumatic circumstances, English rugby most certainly does not have the financial wherewithal to invest heavily in foreign recruitment.
France is only now beginning to reap the rewards of the JIFF policy instituted in 2009-2010. Under the new rules, JIFF players have to spend five years playing age-grade rugby at any FFR-affiliated club, or three seasons with a French professional club’s academy by the age of 23. Squads in France’s two professional leagues must feature no more than 13 non-JIFF players in a squad of over 40, and no more than seven in a matchday squad of 23. There are financial incentives for those who can clip that number to six or fewer with regularity.
In Japan, there has been a similar tightening of the noose around overseas imports. While there is no restriction on the number of potential JQP [Japan-qualified players], there needed to be at least 17 Japanese nationals [Category ‘A’] in a 23-man squad. From January 2023, no more than 20% of a club squad [10 players or less] could come from the ‘B’ [foreign players eligible for the Japanese national team] or ‘C’ [ineligible international foreign players] category.
If Robertson was encouraged to make an overseas wish-list for his Christmas selection stocking, there would probably be no more than one name circled in bright red, and it would be that of Richie Mo’unga. If Razor could slot Richie in between Cam Roigard at nine and Jordie Barrett at 12, he would do it without a moment’s hesitation.
There has been a sea change on the inside of the All Blacks’ backline. Scrum-half Aaron Smith finally disappeared across the horizon with his 124 caps at the end of the World Cup, and his brother-in-arms Mo’unga left for Japan with an additional 56.
‘Nugget’ was the best passing scrum-half the rugby world has ever seen, but he has been succeeded by two bigger men with more strength in contact than speed, in the shape of Roigard and Cortez Ratima. A specialist 10 in Mo’unga has been replaced by two lifetime hybrid 10/15s in Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie. That makes a huge difference to what the All Blacks can aim to achieve on attack.
At scrum-half, there has to be little doubt Roigard could become one of the outstanding ‘big nines’ of the modern era. Another half-back of the same breed, ex-All Black turned pundit Justin Marshall, felt he had scored a points victory over Antoine Dupont in Paris, and ‘Marshy’ was probably right.
Compared to Smith, the most obvious upgrades are the strength in contact in that small world around two metres from the epicentre of the breakdown, on attack and in defence.
The bonus in size and power means the big nine can rob a genuine number eight forward of the ball in the first instance, and stand tall and dominate the ‘hot zone’ around the ruck perimeter in the second. Defences write off the running threat presented in the close spaces at their extreme peril.
The longer levers can have a negative impact, because the law-changes and trends in the game mean the world is shrinking around him so fast. The nine now has less space to breathe, and less time on his hands than ever before.
Smith was a master of those situations close to the base, playing lower to the ground than anyone else and making smart decisions – drawing penalties for early contact or whipping the ball away before the opponent had time to react. With the big nine there is slightly more tendency to lift the ball off the deck before passing, and that quickness around the base takes a cut.
At the same time, Roigard can defend with a physical vigour around the tackle Smith could only dream about.
Just like his now former Hurricanes clubmate TJ Perenara, Roigard is a real threat to pilfer or strip the ball from the boot space where Kiwi scrum-halves love to make their living.
The new set of physical rules can work to the big nine’s advantage or disadvantage.
In the first instance, Roigard stands up before passing and that draws the defence into first receiver, on the following play he takes too many steps away from the ruck before attempting the kick, leading to a block-down. With so much pressure in and around the breakdown and the five-second rule in clear and obvious operation, any laxity in that area will be punished sooner rather than later.
The double-edged sword is in evidence in the example from the game in the Stade de France, where Roigard’s steps away from ruck lead a potential interceptor [French wing Gabin Villière] towards the play, only to be fractionally beaten by the accuracy of a looping pass. But it is a darned close-run thing.
The presence of Roigard at nine, Barrett at 10 and Will Jordan in the attacking axis of the team lends a very different character to the play from the Aaron Smith-Carter/Cruden/Mo’unga-Ben Smith era.
Steps away from the ruck by nine, and passing with the shoulders east-west by 10 lead the third man in the play inevitably into trouble at the tackle, but it’s a capsule of the problems Robertson has yet to solve in the larger frame of player eligibility.
Does the new All Blacks boss stick with McKenzie and Barrett, or twist with a new generation of 10s? Or does he play his joker from overseas, the man he has coached with such success for seven years at the Crusaders? Whatever the options, political or tactical, the occupier of the 10 jersey will playing alongside a nine completely different in outlook to the rugby genius who held the shirt with such distinction for over a decade. Smith may have been understated, but he was the ultimate provider. He made everyone around him better.
Stop being a strawman Nick, you know what I meant. You're suggesting we are somehow attacking Ardie, and that we need to give him some slack.
What are you talking about? Are you trying to suggest he should be allowed a relaxation in standards that continues on past time overseas and into the All Black space? That no one should be concerned with a lack of form for their national side? It sounds like youre conceding defeat now?
Is it too late to gain from (a single year especially) going overseas at 27/28?
What happening?