Warren Gatland's sticky situation: where to for the Kiwi coach if the Lions tour is canned?
When Warren Gatland’s time as head coach of Wales came to an end and the former hooker put pen to paper for the Chiefs in New Zealand, more than a few eyebrows were raised.
The move itself made sense for Gatland – after all, he’d represented Waikato well over 100 times as a player and also coached the provincial side to a national title in 2006. Taking charge of the Chiefs was the next logical step – and it would likely bring him into contention to coach the All Blacks, which is still likely Gatland’s long-term goal.
The raised eyebrows, however, were a product of the terms of Gatland’s contract, which grants him a season off from his four-year deal to take charge of the British and Irish Lions on their tour to South Africa this year. In Gatland’s absence, Bay of Plenty head coach Clayton McMillan has taken over at the Chiefs for the upcoming season.
It was a strange deal from the get-go, with McMillan not a formal part of the Chiefs coaching set-up until this season. When Gatland returns to the team in 2022, as is planned, McMillan will be forced to step into an assistant role, at best. With four assistants on the books already, however, and other franchises across New Zealand making cuts, it’s impossible to rule out the scenario that there simply might not be enough room in Hamilton for both McMillan and Gatland.
202o also didn’t go as planned for Gatland’s side, with the Chiefs finishing the season in dead last on the Super Rugby Aotearoa ladder. They came within a whisker of besting a number of their competitors, however, and could have just as easily finished in third place on the table, but results are results.
All in all, it’s a less than desirable situation for the 2012 and 2013 Super Rugby champions – and things could be about to get considerably more complex thanks to the advent of the coronavirus pandemic.
As it stands, there’s a very real chance that this year’s Lions tour is postponed. COVID-19 is ravaging South Africa at present (not that the UK have the spread of the virus under control either) which means that even if the tour organisers are able to guarantee the tourists’ safety, it’s unlikely that matches will be able to take place in front of live crowds.
The current Currie Cup season in South Africa is being played behind closed doors and with virus cases on the rise, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where things are completely back to normal by July.
Even if small crowds are possible – which is entirely possible – the revenue and funds raised from the tour will be severely diminished. While the Lions tour is a long-standing tradition and the rugby itself stands on its own two feet, even if spectators aren’t present at stadiums, the modern day tour is as much a commercial event as it is a sporting one.
That, of course, makes a 2021 tour a considerably less appealing prospect for everyone involved – which means a postponement until 2022 isn’t out of the question.
While plenty of planning would be needed to rearrange the global calendar, there would be little disruption to the players – but the same couldn’t be said for the coaches, especially Gatland.
"It’s not just about the rugby. It’s the revenue that matters too. The full stadiums, the travelling fans. Lions rugby is nothing without those."
Hamish Bidwell assesses the potentially damning year ahead. #AllBlacks #Springboks @lionsofficial https://t.co/etAmH9Od5e
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) January 7, 2021
If the tour is postponed for a year, then what happens to the Chiefs-cum-Lions coach who is supposed to be returning to the Waikato ahead of the 2022 Super Rugby season?
With McMillan taking charge of the team for the current year, it’s difficult to envisage there being a full-time spot available for Gatland with the Chiefs – especially given the financial hit that New Zealand Rugby endured in 2020.
Perhaps a part-time strategic role might suit Gatland’s needs, but even if everyone is satisfied to the solution for the current year, what happens in 2022?
The Chiefs would lose Gatland for a second year running, likely handing McMillan the coaching job for a second season. If the former police officer can help turn the Chiefs’ fortunes around over two years, then would the powers that be really be comfortable with effectively demoting McMillan to an assistant role, despite doing a stellar job?
That’s not to downplay Gatland’s pedigree. 2020 may not have gone entirely to plan but the Kiwi’s 12 years with Wales bore plenty of fruit and there are few men across the world who would bring as much passion to the Chiefs job as Gatland.
By 2023, however, McMillan might have the Chiefs operating like a well-oiled machine, especially with Brodie Retallick back on hand, and CEO Michael Collins would be remiss to punish the new coach for getting the team back on track after the disappointment of 2020.
What, then, would happen to Gatland?
Perhaps, like Joe Schmidt, Gatland would seek an administrative role in the game – but there’s still every reason to believe that the carrot of the All Blacks hangs above Gatland’s head. That’s a coaching role that would require Gatland to prove himself with a Super Rugby team, however, which puts him back at square one.
Of course, should the Lions tour go ahead as scheduled then things can continue for Gatland, McMillan and the Chiefs and was initially planned – but that’s looking increasingly unlikely by the day.
Some tough decisions will need to be made in the near future – and there will certainly be a few people left unhappy with the outcomes.
Comments on RugbyPass
So, reports of the Crusaders’ demise / terminal decline are perhaps just - slightly - premature/exaggerated…? 🤔 Will we see a deep-dive into that by the estimable Rugbypass scribes, and maybe one or two mea culpas? Thought not.
2 Go to comments1. The Chiefs are rudderless without DMac, which enhances his AB chances 2. Chiefs pack are powderpuffs. The hard men arent there anymore 3. They had their golden title chance last yr and wont threaten this yr. Gone in second round of playoffs.
2 Go to commentsHonestly, why did you have to publish such a foolish article the day they play us? 😂
30 Go to comments> They are not standalone entities. They are linked to an amateur association which holds the FFR licence that allows the professional side to compete in the league. That’s a great rule. This looks like the chicken or egg professional scenario. How long is it going to be before the club can break even (if that is even a thing in French rugby)? If the locals aren’t into well it would be good to se them drop to amateur level (is it that far?). Hope they can reset from this level and be more practical, there will be a time when they can rebuild (if France has there setup right).
1 Go to commentsWhat about changing the ball? To something heavier and more pointed that bounces unpredictably. Not this almost round football used these days.
35 Go to commentsThis is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?
35 Go to commentsWow, didn’t realise there was such apathy to URC in SA, or by Champions Cup teams. Just read Nick’s article on Crusaders, are Sharks a similar circumstance? I think SA rugby has been far more balanced than NZs, no?
2 Go to commentsBut here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.
30 Go to commentsIt could be coincidental or prescient that the All Blacks most dominant period under Steve Hansen was when the Crusaders had their least successful period under Todd Blackadder and then the positions reversed when Razor took over the Crusaders.
30 Go to commentsDefinitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to commentsSinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
2 Go to commentsThanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
30 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
30 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
2 Go to commentsLike others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
30 Go to commentsharry potter is set in stone. he creates stability and finishes well. exactly what schmidt likes. he’s the ben smith of australian rugby. i think it could quite easily be potter toole and kellaway for the foreseeable future.
5 Go to commentsThis is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to commentsWhat a load of bollocks. The author has forgotten to mention the fact that the Crusaders have a huge injury toll with top world class players out. Not to mention the fact that they are obviously in a transition period. No this will not spark a slow death for NZ rugby, but it does mean there will be a new Super Rugby champion. Anyone who knows anything about NZ rugby knows that there is some serious talent here, it just isn’t all at the Crusaders.
30 Go to commentsI wouldn’t spend the time on Nawaqanitawase! No point in having him filling in a jersey when he’s committed to leave Union. Give the jersey to a young prospect who will be here in the future.
5 Go to comments