'They've been sitting there waiting': Odds stacked against Japan in Dublin
Japan have the chance to avenge their most recent loss to Ireland and potentially claim a first away victory over the Celtic nation in Dublin this weekend.
An Ireland side shorn of their British and Irish Lions were able to secure a 39-31 victory over Japan at the Aviva Stadium in July, despite the Brave Blossoms taking a 5-point lead early in the second half.
That match marked the first time the two sides had played since Japan’s inspired performance at the 2019 Rugby World Cup, which saw the home nation record a historic 19-12 win over the visitors and take pole position in their pool.
While Ireland have had as packed a schedule over the past two years as any other top nation, Japan have played just three international games since their World Cup heroics – suffering three straight losses to the British and Irish Lions, Ireland and, most recently, Australia.
The Brave Blossoms were in touching distance of the Wallabies for the majority of the match played in Oita and even had a chance of scoring a first-ever victory going into the final five minutes, down 23-27, but the visitors had the last laugh and scored from a rolling maul to claim a well-deserved 32-23 win.
Despite their lack of luck in recent times, however, Japan have taken the field more recently than the Irish, who haven’t played a match since flogging the USA Eagles 71-10 just a week after earning their win over the Brave Blossoms earlier this season.
Even then, that was without the majority of Ireland’s top players, which means the full-strength side’s last game came in March, when they tipped over England in the final round of the Six Nations.
As such, there may be a few things going in Japan’s favour this weekend – but both teams are still relatively undercooked at this early stage of the Autumn Nations Series.
Speaking on the latest episode of the Aotearoa Rugby Pod, former All Black James Parsons has admitted it’s hard to get a gauge on where either team stands at this point in time.
“I just think both sides have got a little bit of unknown about them, having not been able to play for a bit,” he said. “Japan, we saw against Aussie, and that was a great showing but it’s one thing to do that at home, and then [another] to go to Dublin and win a test match and the Irish will be up for it. They’ve been sitting there waiting.”
After taking French leave for three years, Simon Zebo, has returned to a much-changed landscape in Ireland.
So can the prodigal son pick up where he left off?@JBradleyBT assesses what he can bring to Andy Farrell's squad…https://t.co/3AkQXpGTwt
— The XV Rugby (@TheXV) November 2, 2021
Parsons’ fellow panellist, Crusaders halfback Bryn Hall, acknowledged that while Japan had performed well against Australia, they’d be playing in vastly different conditions in Dublin.
“You look at that 77th minute against Australia, they were in that game, and if it weren’t for Rob Valetini making that steal to be able to ice the game, Japan were right into that game,” Hall said. “I think the improvement for them moving forward is knowing that it’s going to be in France in 2023, and the conditions could be a little more different than they’re accustomed to, being at home, being a lot hotter and [playing with a] dry ball.
“What I did like in Japan, they probably didn’t get the execution right with the contestable aspect but they’ve got the game to be able to do that. I don’t know what the weather’s going to be like in Ireland, it could be a little bit wet, but we know how much of a [fast] tempo mindset that the Japanese do have.
“I did see in that game, they had the likes of the box kick, being able to have it set up really quickly so if they feel like they’re not able to go anywhere, at least they’ve got the mindset to be able to … put a contestable up off 9 or they might do it off 10. I was really happy to be able to see that because knowing that [they’ll] go to the Northern Hemisphere, having that in your toolbox, having to go from Plan A to Plan B … I think that’s going to be real crucial for Japan moving forward.
“But then I think, as well, their set-piece, having that parity in set-piece is always going to be something really important going into Ireland because no doubt, if you’re Ireland, you want to really dominate that set-piece through scrum and lineout and if Japan can run at that 85-90 per cent and nail moments with that set-piece – and big moments – and win a lineout, win a scrum when they need to, then they could be in a very similar situation like they were against Australia.”
Parsons agreed that the biggest work-on for Japan is at the set-piece, with their solid work at the scrums and lineouts in Oita paving the way for their backs to unleash some strong backline plays.
“I think the other key is the maul D as well, that’s where they probably lost the game, that was Aussie’s last try, and that will be big for them on this tour,” the former hooker said. “They really need to aim up and have a plan around how they’re going to stop these driving mauls because the opportunities will come – it’s rugby. And they’ve got to make sure they don’t make it as easy as they did for the Wallabies at the end of that game.”
Since their historic win over South Africa in 2015, Japan have gone from strength-to-strength and impressed again on Saturday despite the loss to Australia. #JPNvAUS https://t.co/eP1jpjSK60
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 24, 2021
Both Hall and Parsons suggested that Japan will benefit from the trip north and that despite not being favourites for the match, a win for the touring Brave Blossoms could help to continue to shake up world rugby.
“Any time you can play against a top-tier nation away from home, especially in the Northern Hemishphere, it’s only going to be able to make you better as a team,” Hall said.
“I’m excited by this test match and I think, man, if Japan could do something special, it would really spice up international rugby,” said Parsons. “Whenever they do do these big one-off wins, it’s big talking points in the game of sport, in general, not just rugby people talk it, but everyone starts talking it. So I think a victory away from home, in Ireland, would be huge for our game as a whole.
“Ireland [will win] for me. I just think at home, conditions, travel. It’s weighted in their favour. It’ll be close though.”
Comments on RugbyPass
Lets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
10 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
10 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
6 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to comments