The most radical change to All Blacks' rugby this World Cup cycle under Steve Hansen
There is a firm belief among some World Cup teams that this year’s tournament won’t be decided by tries. Springboks coach Rassie Erasmus went on record earlier this year to explain his thinking.
“World Cups have never been won by eight tries,” he said.
“It’s always been high-pressure games and the end of the game it’s a penalty here or a drop goal there.”
Under Erasmus, the Springboks have transitioned towards a tactical kicking game lead by Faf de Klerk while using the boot of Handre Pollard to keep the scoreboard ticking over. The changes have worked, with South Africa now considered a genuine contender to capture their third World Cup title.
This year’s Six Nations champions, Wales, ground out a Grand Slam on the back of just 10 tries across five games, relying on defence and clutch goal kicking to win tight games.
The All Blacks, long the pioneers of attacking rugby, are well known to favour scoring tries. This hasn’t changed much. What has changed, though, is just how devalued the penalty goal has become to them since the last World Cup.
In this World Cup cycle (2016-2019), the number of penalty goals scored by the All Blacks has dropped a whopping 59.9%. The proceeding cycle (2012-2015) saw a modest decline of 6.0% and the previous two before that saw rising numbers.
It’s safe to say that this cycle has shifted All Blacks test rugby into a different age of high-octane, all-out attack.
World Cup Cycle | Penalty goals scored | Penalties per game | % Change |
2016-2019 | 52 | 1.06 | -59.93 |
2012-2015 | 143 | 2.65 | -6.03 |
2008-2011 | 155 | 2.82 | 0.95 |
2004-2007 | 134 | 2.79 | 15.25 |
2000-2003 | 109 | 2.42 |
At the same time, the All Blacks have already bettered the try count of every World Cup cycle with nearly the whole calendar year to spare.
On a per-game basis, they haven’t bettered the 5.03 tries per game achieved in the 2000-2003 cycle, but are certainly scoring more than the last two cycles leading to back-to-back World Cups.
World Cup Cycle | Tries | Tries per game | % Change |
2016-2019 | 228 | 4.65 | 20.22 |
2012-2015 | 209 | 3.87 | 6.44 |
2008-2011 | 200 | 3.64 | -20.30 |
2004-2007 | 219 | 4.56 | -9.15 |
2000-2003 | 226 | 5.02 |
It is widely accepted that defensive systems across the world have improved dramatically over this last cycle, at a time when the All Blacks are scoring 20% more tries.
One theory that explains both numbers heading in opposite directions is that in order to increase the number of tries they can score they have traded kickable threes in exchange for more possessions inside the opposition 22.
Weaker opposition may also explain the lack of penalty goals, as well as certain game situations. When ahead by multiple scores, the need to kick threes diminishes. Against the Wallabies, they have had a number of games with significant leads by halftime.
Subsequently, the number of penalties kicked against the Wallabies shows an even greater drop-off, falling by 77%. Just eight penalties have been kicked over against them over the last three years.
World Cup Cycle | Penalties scored vs. Australia | Penalties per game | % Change |
2016-2019 | 8 | 0.89 | -76.81 |
2012-2015 | 46 | 3.83 | 33.72 |
2008-2011 | 43 | 2.87 | -19.38 |
2004-2007 | 32 | 3.56 | 33.33 |
2000-2003 | 24 | 2.67 |
The fall of Australia and South Africa down the world rankings and Argentina’s ongoing development has left the All Blacks without significant Southern Hemisphere competition until Erasmus’ Springboks revival, which could be one reason for a lack of penalty goals over this period.
Whether the lack of strength in the competition is the catalyst for a more aggressive approach is unclear. It could be the chicken or egg scenario, but clearly, the preference has been for more try-scoring opportunities.
Surprisingly, what has not worked is the rare occasions the All Blacks have respected the opponent enough to take penalty shots at goal as a first resort, and in the last six months, we have seen an alarming change towards taking shots at goal.
They have reverted back to a conservative approach against the stiffer competition on the end of year tour – and it has lead to losses and severely tight games.
Against the British & Irish Lions in the second test and third tests, and Ireland in Dublin last November taking a three-first approach failed. Against the Springboks in Wellington two weeks ago, taking the points on offer at every chance also led to a draw.
An interesting dynamic at play is the opportunity cost of taking three, forgoing the opportunity to attack from deep inside the opposition 22.
Looking back at the Lions’ series, in horrendous conditions and playing with 14-men for 55-minutes in the second test, the All Blacks took every opportunity to kick for goal.
After receiving a red card early and considering the conditions, this could be seen as the right approach but it proved to not be enough as the Lions clawed back an 18-9 deficit to strike with two tries in the last 20 minutes.
From 10 attempts, the All Blacks netted 21 points on seven successful kicks from Beauden Barrett. In the process, 10 possessions from roughly five to 15-metres out were forgone.
The All Blacks didn’t use a penalty once to kick to the corner from inside the Lions half. All eight penalties between the Lions’ 22 and 40-metre line were shots at goal. Two penalties inside the 22 also became shots at goal.
Consequently, in the rain-soaked arm wrestle, they were starved of meaningful possession attacking the Lions’ goal line, with just three entries into the 22, of which only one entry breached the 10.
In order to achieve the same return of 21 points, the All Blacks would need to score tries on just three of those 10 possessions kicked into the corner, a strike rate of just 30 percent, assuming all tries are converted. A strike rate of 40 percent would have likely seen them win the match.
Would the Lions’ goal line defence have been able to deny seven out of the 10 attacking raids from close range?
Defending your own goal line is made more difficult by the fact that only bending the line, not breaking, is required to score. Through a maul or driving through contact, the attacking side can find the try line without the opposition missing a tackle. The All Blacks have one of the best lineouts in the world, and a pack built with Crusaders’ forwards that are used to some of the most complex schemes out there to win clean ball.
Second infringements also become common, allowing sides to test once before eventually settling for three if they please. In the worst-case scenario of turning the ball over, the opposition is forced to exit from their own goal line usually resulting in another lineout 20-30 metres out.
Even with 15 men on the field in the first half, with plenty of time left in the game, the All Blacks opted to kick goals without forcing the Lions to defend a lineout maul from the five.
The All Blacks tried the same approach in Dublin, taking six points in the first half when presented on the doorstep of the 22 instead of testing Ireland’s goal line defence.
With Ireland being a clinical side giving away little possession and few penalties, the All Blacks were again starved of possession to attack inside the 22 throughout the entire match.
The All Blacks received just one opportunity to attack from inside 10 metres in the first half, which was stopped early and turned over by Ireland in the third minute, and only a few more in the second half. Again, with a penalty 40 metres out late in the game, the All Blacks took a shot at goal when already behind by 10 points to narrow the gap to a converted try.
Respecting the opponent is almost becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, enabling the opposition to avoid the hardest place to defend on the field, robbing the All Blacks of the chance to pile on the pressure.
With turnover ball drying up as a source of points against the top Northern Hemisphere sides and now the Springboks (one area they regularly dine on against the error-prone Wallabies), the All Blacks are finding it extremely difficult to create entries into the 22 through other means such as out-and-out line breaks.
Turning down the three isn’t always the best option in late-game scenarios, but when the game is in its early stages, the All Blacks could take more chances to bury the Northern Hemisphere teams early. A 14-point lead would almost certainly go a long way to killing off Wales or England, who aren’t built to play from behind and chase games.
Against the Springboks in the recent 16-all draw, the All Blacks’ first penalty in range was an attempted kick at goal in the 12th minute, which Barrett missed, forgoing a kick to the corner. Their first breach of the Boks’ 22 didn’t come until the 30th minute.
This is the largely the same Bok side that conceded four tries either from or off the rolling maul in the two games last year. Again, early in the second half, Barrett took the points and an extra few metres in the process.
The spotlight shouldn’t be on whether he should be taking a few metres, but on why is he kicking for goal in the first place with a 7-6 lead and half an hour to go. And again they opted to shoot for goal at 10-6 less than five minutes later.
In an era where the All Blacks have shown an undeniable preference for turning down threes in search of tries, why all of a sudden is every available shot being taken against likely World Cup opponents, a strategy which failed against the Lions?
“We want to win the Bledisloe Cup, for sure, and want to win the World Cup. Along the way, we have to make some sacrifices and we may have to take some risks … but hopefully, we’ll get the rewards,” Steve Hansen recently explained.
The All Blacks are taking hardly any risks at all on the field, so we have to assume the risk Hansen is talking about is shelving the regular game plan and potentially sacrificing The Rugby Championship for one year for the greater good of the ultimate goal.
Wallabies captain Michael Hooper ahead of Bledisloe I:
Comments on RugbyPass
The Chiefs definitely didn’t win ugly. They had the superior scrum, a dominant lineout, and their defence was excellent once the Waratahs scored their two tries (thanks to some lucky refereeing calls mind you). They put pressure on the Waratahs lineout throughout the game, and the mind boggles as to why the referee did not award a yellow card or a penalty try against the Waratahs for repeated scrum infringements on their own try line before Narawa’s first try. And the Chiefs were slick with their passing and running angles on attack. It was a dominant performance all round, even with many questionable refereeing decisions.
1 Go to commentsWasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
3 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
3 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
3 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
30 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
3 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
3 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
30 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
30 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
30 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to comments