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The Breakdown: A statistical look at the fourth round of Six Nations matches

By Nicholas McGee
Wales after their win over England

Wales enter the fourth round of the Six Nations in familiar territory as they prepare to face Scotland.

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Warren Gatland’s men are unbeaten after three matches and the only team left who can complete a Grand Slam.

It is a position they have never let slip since the competition became a six-team tournament, but England and Ireland will look to take advantage should they suffer defeat in Edinburgh.

History is firmly on England’s side as they host perennial strugglers Italy, while Ireland welcome a France side on a miserable run of away from to Dublin.

With the help of Opta, we take a statistical look at the fourth round of matches.

Scotland v Wales

Scotland will be aiming to win consecutive home games against Wales in the Five/Six Nations for the first time since winning five in a row against them at Murrayfield between 1987 and 1995.

Wales have won 12 consecutive matches in all competitions, their longest winning run in Test history (W11, 1907-1910).

Wales are the only unbeaten side in this year’s championship – only on three previous occasions in the Six Nations have they won their opening three games, going on to complete the Grand Slam on each occasion (2005, 2008, 2012).

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Continue reading below…
Watch: Gregor Townsend previews Scotland v Wales

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England v Italy

England have won all 19 of their clashes with Italy in the Six Nations and remain the only side the Azzurri are yet to taste victory against in the tournament.

The hosts have scored at least one try in each of their last 13 home games in the Six Nations. The last team to stop England crossing the whitewash at Twickenham in the tournament was Italy back in 2013, one of just two occasions that England have failed to score a try at home in the tournament since 2000 (also v Wales in 2012).

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England’s Owen Farrell needs just six points to reach 800 in his Test career (England & British and Irish Lions) – he would be the 14th player in history to reach that tally and the second Englishman after Jonny Wilkinson (1246).

Watch: Eddie Jones speaks to RugbyPass exclusively ahead of England’s Six Nations game against Italy.

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Ireland v France

Ireland have won four of their last five games against France in the Six Nations (L1), as many as they had won in their initial 14 meetings in the Championship since 2000 (D2, L8).

There were five tries scored the first time Ireland faced France under Joe Schmidt in the Six Nations, since then just four tries have been scored in the four matches between these sides, with Ireland crossing the try line just once and France three times.

France have lost nine of their last 11 away games in the Six Nations (W2), their only victories in that run coming against Italy (2015 & 2017)

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A
Adrian 54 minutes ago
Reds are carrying the Australian flag on and off the pitch

Thanks Nick, and totally correct. Definately too many teams which is unfortunately an effect of the 21st century hubris that began after our 2nd World Cup win. Honestly we weren't like that before then. If NZ beat us in a Rugby League or cricket series (which has occasionally happened) they don't all of a sudden think they are our equal or even better than us. Unfortunately for Australia, we got carried away with ourselves and wanted to jump from 4th biggest football code to biggest…in 5 minutes. More teams, more matches against the All Blacks (so we could beat them even more). Bring it on. It’s been all down hill since then. Assuming Melbourne are gone, there are very good reasons to keep the remaining 4 in SR, or so it would seem. The Force?…wronged previously, and have $s. Surely not. The Brumbies?….easily the best performed. Surely not. The Waratahs?….most players (50%) and most followers. Surely not. The Reds?….easily the best current team, and nearly as many players and followers as the Waratahs. Surely not. I’d argue that based on how strong the combined Reds n Rebs would be and how strong a combined team of all of the other Oz SR teams would be, we have players for 2 teams…..which would be good. Good enough for a propper SR competition…or maybe good enough for Japan….if they’ll have us. Existing SR teams?….keep them and have them play a second tier…or maybe NZ's NRC….if they'll have us. This is biting the bullet. We have the cattle

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M
Mzilikazi 2 hours ago
How England reverse-engineered unlikely attacking change

Thanks, Nick, not only for this fine article, but for all the others during 6N 2024. I really enjoyed this 2024 tournament, and felt it was one of the best for many years. That final match in Lyons was really good. England were certainly unlucky when that speculative hack by Ramos lead to a French try. It could just so easily have landed in English hand.s, and they score at the other end. I did think though that the French played some great rugby, and some of their driving play in the forwards was just fearsome. I watched Meafou with interest, and he has a good start to his career. It is interesting to compare him with Will Skelton. Lot of similarities, though so far Meafou has not shown any offloading threat. All credit to Borthwick for being prepared to change, and what great result, even if that last game was lost at the death. I feel they are a real chance to cause the AB’s problems this winter/summer. Finally a comment on Ireland. I thought their last game was their worst, and they did not look like the world’s No 2 side at all. What really worries me is that the loss to England was, in my view, down to poor decision making by the coaching group, and ofc Andy Farrell wears that. It was a big mistake to move JGP away from scrum half. Murray should have been the one to go to the wing. And the “finishers” should have been on the field earlier. And this is the second time this has happened. The RWC Qf against the AB’s, and not getting Crowley onto the field was a huge mistake. Finally, finally, watching Italy play was a joy. How wonderful that they are no longer the punchbag of the 6 N.

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