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Why the All Blacks don't need to bother with a bomb squad
By Ben Smith
The All Blacks are one of the few top international teams to resist moving to a 6-2 or 7-1 bench arrangement, instead preferring three backs.
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South Africa started the recent trend, using their strength and depth up front to field two packs over the course of the 80 minutes, while France have found success moving in a similar vein towards a forward-heavy bench.
They claimed this year’s Six Nations title by beating title contenders Ireland with a 7-1 bench. It was in the last half an hour that France pulled away, injecting most of their bench forwards in the 48th minute.
The All Blacks have lost their last three against France and last four against South Africa, suggesting there is a problem with New Zealand’s approach. At least on the surface it suggests so, but the context of those games paints a different picture.
None of these contests have been played in New Zealand. Home-field advantage has skewed the nature of those results. New Zealand has a historical 72 per cent win rate over South Africa at home and an 87 per cent win rate over France on home soil.
Just one of the last 10 All Blacks-Springboks games has been in New Zealand, a ridiculous skew that has favoured the Springboks during the 2020s so far.
The All Blacks also played two of those four losses with 14 men, with a first-half red card determining the result early.
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So while the Boks’ bomb squad looked great at Twickenham in 2023, they were playing a side that lost their tight head prop to injury after 13 minutes, lost Scott Barrett for the entirety, and had brother Jordie Barrett playing flank at scrum time. Not to mention the All Blacks’ bench was stacked with inexperienced, young forwards.
The 7-1 bomb squad had no impact in the Rugby World Cup final, where a 14-man All Black team ran all over South Africa. The most hollow of victories followed for the Boks, clinging onto a one-point win after two missed kicks at goal by New Zealand.
Without considering the context, the 7-1 bench looked like a masterstroke, but reality was far from that.
The one game where South Africa’s bench swayed the contest was last year’s Ellis Park Test, where the All Blacks held a 27-17 lead heading into the final quarter. That result was arguably determined by the All Blacks’ own bench, who lacked execution in the final stretch.
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Of France’s three victories, two were with a 6-2 split, while their pool stage win in 2023 was done with a 5-3 split. In 2024, there was just one point between the sides. All three of those contests were at Stade de France.
The sample size above is skewed too much to conclude the theory that the bomb squad has been the decisive factor.
There are also internal reasons why the All Blacks don’t need a bomb squad, the first reason why is because they have Ardie Savea.
Savea is an 80-minute player that you want on the field for the entire game. He can play No.8 and openside and move to one position or the other to finish a game.
The best use of the 2023 World Player of the Year is having him in the contest, not taking him off for a fresh forward of lesser ability. What Savea can produce, no one else can.
Now, suddenly Wallace Sititi has also emerged. He’s also an 80-minute player. Would you rather have Savea and Sititi on the field or off it? Most would say on.
The All Blacks don’t need an extra forward on the bench because of these two, but they do need to have better players waiting in the wings to come into the game in other specific positions.
The 2015 All Blacks side had a great bench. It had world-class quality through 1-15, but also from 16-23 with players like Keven Mealamu, Sam Cane, Victor Vito, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett and Sonny Bill Williams. As a 23, it was a complete team with plenty of experience, despite having five forwards and three backs.
The 2024 All Blacks side didn’t have that, while the 2023 side didn’t really, either.
For the All Blacks to produce the best 23 they can by 2027 with a 5-3 split, they need depth at halfback and first five. The 5-3 split hinges on having great halves that can either raise the tempo or manage a game to close out a result.
That means the All Blacks must bring back Richie Mo’unga from Japan, a player with two Rugby World Cup campaigns under his belt and who is one of the best No.10s in the world.
Mo’unga, Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie bring the kind of depth and experience they need to run an effective 5-3 bench, with insurance for one going down with injury.
Halfback is the more problematic position. Cam Roigard is the clear No.1 but has only 10 Test caps despite debuting in 2023. Cortez Ratima has 11 Test caps and again needs more experience by 2027. Neither of them has enough experience. The third halfback is up for grabs, which is a problem as just one injury would throw another inexperienced candidate in.
Ratima needs to prove it at Test level by closing out the big games directing the side, which he hasn’t. They were in a position to win at Ellis Park and failed, the same in Paris against France. Again, it will hopefully come for him with experience.
This was the biggest issue with Finlay Christie as the reserve halfback under Foster. For all of his defensive prowess, he couldn’t execute. A box kick would get charged down and put his own side under pressure. Coming in with 20 minutes to go in a tight Test match requires zero execution errors from the halfback. Christie was always shaky, and mistakes always seemed to follow him.
The All Blacks don’t need a flashy running No.9 off the bench. They need security with someone who can put a pinpoint box kick on a dime each and every time, pass the ball into the bread basket each and every time, and ultimately control and dictate terms in a game. They need someone who just delivers.
Instead of flip-flopping between Roigard and Ratima as the starter, one needs to take the starting role, and one has to become a finisher and become a master at playing the game situation. Most of TJ Perenara’s Test career was as a finisher, in a defined role that he built experience in.
They both need to stay healthy, which has been difficult as both are running No.9s, which puts them at a higher risk. Roigard already had a serious injury last year.
The All Blacks coaching staff need to figure out the halfback situation and build enough depth to solve the 5-3 problem. That’s the heart of the issue.
In terms of the forwards, picture a starting loose forward trio of Shannon Frizell at No.6 (currently in Japan), Ardie Savea at openside and Wallace Sititi at No.8 and a starting lock pair of Tupou Vaa’i and Scott Barrett.
That allows for a bench that features Patrick Tuipulotu at lock and either Luke Jacobson, Dalton Papalii, Samipeni Finau or Peter Lakai as the flex loose forward reserve to replace Frizell or cover injury to the other. That’s enough experience to have a great bench when everyone is healthy.
The All Blacks can win the Rugby World Cup again in 2027 with a 5-3 bench, but it will require developing two world-class halfbacks first and foremost.
They don’t more forwards on the bench with the talent they have.
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Great read. Razor is the right man in this case as he isn't bowled over by trends or fads.
SA and France are the only tier 1 teams that suit a 7:1 split. It plays to their strengths. They'd always go for a ‘loosie’ who has good hands over their grunt work at the breakdown.
ABs have traditionally just broken even with set pieces. It's not a renowned strength in their game and doesn't need to be.
I think the global game has just gotten much closer. Ironically as many other nations have tipped their hats to the AB way of running rugby and adopted it.
Jeez, Smith, talk about clutching at straws. The real test of your theory will take place in Oz in two years’ time, when the Boks finally play in an RWC in a country similar to their own, where the weather is to their liking (obviously it'll never be in SA ever again thanks to the disgraceful WR politics!) and Rassie will be able to bring in some backs on the bench rather than concentrating on bolstering the pack who, generally, aren't used to wet conditions and work their guts out, like in France. I fully expect - unless torrential rain is forecast in Brisbane or Perth - him to use a 5-3 or even a 4-4 split, knowing his ability to think outside the box, rugby genius that he is.
No team should blindly copy innovations by another team. It’s great for the game for different teams to successfully innovate themselves, and adopt different tactics.
I was hoping to read some interesting ideas about that. Maybe finding ways to build a first half lead, so that a bomb squad advantage in the last 20 can't close the gap. Or finding ways to tire out the backs, knowing that they do not have great bench cover. Or finding ways to force hybrid players into less optimal roles. Or just managing the game such that superior set pieces and forwards play is less impactful in the last 20.
No team needs a bomb squad if they have better ideas. And many teams don’t have the ability to bring on a second pack of comparable quality to the starters, not to mention the versatility in the 23 to cover the back positions. So a bomb squad approach is not for everyone.
However, if NZ does go down the no bomb squad track they will need a specific plan to counter the teams with 6-2 and 7-1 splits. The “80 minute players” will not only have to go up against fresh players for the last 20 minutes, but they will be playing the first 60 minutes against players that are intentionally emptying the tank faster than themselves.
Of course the Boks being the Boks, they could have a completely new plan for 2025. So maybe a debate about the bomb squad is a discussion about how to win yesterday’s war.
The 7-1 split is not really a 7-1 split with the French. Oscar Jegou is a back row but has the ability to finish the game at centre. He did so against Ireland and did very well. It’s a new trend in France it seems.
What concerns me is that most tactical innovation now comes from SA and France, not NZ.
Did the ABs lose their mojo. Or were results influenced by Fozzie?
The ABs need to stop looking at the past for results. I agree with the premise but going back to Mo’Unga and Frizell is a mistake. They would be much better off developing the new players like Love, Cameron, Reihana, Kerifi and others.
I think it’s simply about the evolution of the game and a once in a lifetime coach that has made this work. The AB’s had an opportunity to do a 6/2 when SBW , Retallick and all those heavies in the front row were playing. The thing is they didn’t need to as they were winning cos they played to their strengths of formidable backs. Boks play to their strengths of formidable forwards. And it’s not just grunt. If it was Fiji would have won loads of WC’s. It’s simply loads of players reaching their 10,000 hours early in high school- and of course a progressive approach to selecting foreign based players.
The bomb squad is a specialized team, as used in American football routinely. The tactic is to pit fresh players against those that have run their legs off for 60 minutes. The goal is to win penalties and move the ball down the pitch while retaining possession. There was a reason only injury subs were allowed in the good old days, it’s called fair play.
LOL, somehow I knew the author of the article the moment I saw the headline.
Every Ben Smith’s article could be summed up as:
“South Africa are overrated, they’re talentless, just lucky. Handré Pollard is the worst fly half of all time. The All Blacks are best. They are most clever and talented team, just very unlucky.”
There, I saved you 15 min of your time. You’re welcome, people.
Ben you are right, you can only do a 7.1 split if you have 4 world class locks. 4 world class props and 2 world class hookers. The ABs do not have them so it is better playing 5.3 for the ABs.
Talking about skewed stats didn't BS publish some nonsense about France never sending their best down to NZ. So is that win percentage inflated too?
Also not sure what he is expecting the 7-1 split to do. It's not some secret or instant solution that magically gives a team points but instead is about helping them get a slight edge like I dunno say…..close out a tight game by 1 point?
The point about “80 minute players” is bogus. The split isn't about getting players that can give you 40 minutes but rather pitting a player that is tiring against a fresh one. If I had to guess who would win a one on one competition between ardie savea after 60mins of game time or ardie savea after 10mins of game time, I know where I'd put my money.
NZ don’t have the cattle to field a 6-2 or 7-1 bench. That’s why they go for a 5-3. Simple as that.
The AB do not have the forwards to field a 6-2 or 7-1 split.
OMG - ANOTHER Rassie hater.
All Blacks rans over the Boks but lost? Were they all running with 1 Leg also Ben?
Your 2025 side (bench) won’t have that “experience” either. Stop making excuses.
You can name EVERYBODY to make yourself feel good about your chances in 2025, but you will get beat over & over again by The Boks this year.
BS makes a strong point about the ABs not needing a bomb squad etc etc, insert opinion here on strengths/weaknesses of certain players. It’s not a tactic for every team and no one says that it should be. But this guy really needs to learn to grow up and stop showing how hurt he is by his hatred of the Boks. Yes, there are results between the two teams that go back a long way, The Greatest Rivalry and all that. But to start a serious article about serious AB tactics by bashing the Boks? This is immature journalism and it’s really something that can be relied upon as his calling card in the majority of his articles. Write what you know about and leave the childish vitriol at home, it’s doing your articles no good.
Ben, you love the ABs to death and that’s great - everyone loves a passionate journalist. It’s a passionate game. But please, for the sake of your profession, grow up.
Would love to see Roigard and Cortez add some of the subtle skills of Fakatava or JT at Moana with bit of deception and switching of play round the ruck
Jeez I don’t know if we “ran all over them “ but yea since second half of 2022 our forwards shown the can go with anyone s d depth has only gotten better
Ben Smith is right. The AB’s dont need a 7-1 or 6-2. It just doesnt play to their strengths. Also they dont use substitutes in the same way as SA and France and are more dependent on impact from the starting 15. Their bench is and always has been strong but the 15 are more than capable of doing the job. The AB’s have played more outside NZ against the best opposition and have lost frequently. This will hopefully strengthen the team and harden them for stern challenges to come. The tour to SA in 2026 could be defining for this group and winning in that country will set them up for 2027 perfectly. The AB’s are well set in terms of experience, planning and their overall squad to have a great team come 2027. They will have no excuses at that event. NZR must win that world cup. It is absolutely imperative for the future of the brand and to ensure that the black Jersey retains its pull especially seeing as the financial situation at NZR continues to decline. The last thing NZR will want is for many of their best and experienced players to start seeking contracts overseas so winning the world cup must be the focus. This group will also peak in 2027 so after that they may have to rebuild a bit. Short term pain for long term gain must be the current mantra. It doesnt even have to be painful and this year they will face a more favourable schedule compared to the last year. With this squad and the experience their results over the next 2 years must improve. They are capable and have a good group. Lets see if they can produce when it counts.
I believe NZ, SA and Fra will be the main contenders with Irl, Eng and Argentina in the following pack. France have clearly decided after 2023 that they will refocus on winning in 2027. SA will try and win again. Somehow I think it could be between Fra and NZ. That’s why its important for NZ to play a strong French team this year. They are probably going to have to beat France in the RWC to win it.
The article is largely correct in that the ABs have been stiffed by playing outside of NZ and also by Yellow/red cards and at times plain bad luck. Even so we need to be as good away as we are at home, avoid the cards and to actually outplay the opposition to the extent that luck is not as much of a factor. The great AB teams of the past were able to do just that.
The 2015 RWC quarter final against France is the single greatest performance I've seen. Still.
They had third choice props off loading in the tackle and running off shoulders to score tries. Every single player in the squad could use their hands.
They always tended to back youth in a way other nations didn’t and always had the advantage of their players starting to play structured, competitive rugby at around 6 or 7. It's just changed now and evened up with other nations.
I also think that 2011-2015 player talent was once in a century. It will never be seen again.
Agree and disagree. The devil is in the detail. With NZ struggling for RWC wins after 1987 the belief was for NZ to be so good that the opposition didn’t matter. That version of outplaying the opposition failed to deal with inspired one off opponents, particularly France in 1999, 2007.
The RC in 2024 is a good example. First test against Argentina they thought superiority would overwhelm their opponents. Argentina worked on a way to undermine and beat NZ. It worked.
Second Test, NZ looked at Argentina and completely nullified them. They did similar versus Ireland in Autumn 2024.
In the past it was hard for NZ as every F**ker targetted them this way. But with more threats spread around they will have a little less heat.
I’m Irish so not biased to NZ but given the superiority in skills they generally possess they are best at undermining other teams. I was impressed with what they did in Dublin. The way for NZ to dominate again wont be to hammer everyone in sight, those days are gone, but to be the best at adapting to beating teams in individual tight matches. They have the tools to be best at that. Arguably if there was a bit more of that versus eg France in previous RWCs they might have an extra World Title or two.
I think a 6-2 bench is the way to go for the All Blacks vs Springboks and France.
An option is to select on the bench an entire tight five plus one loose forward, if the coaches feel Savea and Sititi can go 80 minutes in a test match without a decline in work rate.
However, my preference would be to go with a 6-2 with 2 props, a hooker, a lock, and two very mobile loose forwards.
This is a massive piece of bait for all of the Springboks fans!
Nah. Been listening to this for so long, it’s grown hairs.
At least it’s only two more years until NZ can have another crack.
Yeah that’s just sour BS. The Springboks had the hardest run in to a final in WC history.
I didn’t think they’d have the energy, and a 20+ NZ victory would not have been surprising.
It was a brilliant performance from the Boks.
And as for cards and bad calls well, welcome to the wonderful game of rugby.
I am sure the hollowness would have been slightly sated by being presented with the Webb Ellis trophy.
Honestly, our supporters would gladly have taken the hollowest victory in sporting history if it meant our boys got to lift that baby.
but accurate nonetheless
The fish are not biting. The Boks won. I don’t know of a fan who is wringing his hands about how. 😁
A 7-1 split doesn’t work for the All Blacks because they don’t have the sort of players to make it work.
The Boks have Kwagga Smith and that dude who filled in at hooker in the WC final, real hybrid players.
I don’t buy the argument for putting Scott Barret or Va’i at 6. They are far too slow.
The ABs might consider it when Ollie Norris is selected later this year maybe.
NZ rugby has all the cattle to split the bench any way they want versatility plus
Ollie Norris is a loosehead prop so he is not going to bring any versatility.
If you mean the AB 7s player Ollie Mathis, well he has not even played a match of Super Rugby and is at least 3 years away from selection and won’t see him for All Blacks until 2028 at the earliest.