'The All Blacks aren't headed in the right direction' - How the Southern Hemisphere's behemoths are placed with 2021 on the horizon
For a year that promised so much, the fact that any test rugby was able to be played in the Southern Hemisphere at all was a massive achievement.
Still, the three sides that competed in this year’s Tri Nations – New Zealand, Australia and Argentina – will have all emerged from 2020 with as many questions as they have answers.
The All Blacks took out the competition, but their two-win, two-loss record illustrates how tight the battle was.
While head coaches Ian Foster, Dave Rennie and Mario Ledesma won’t necessarily be happy with how the year unfolded, there are still some bright sparks amongst the gloom that could help propel the Southern Hemisphere sides onto brighter and better things in the years to come.
In the second part of RugbyPass’ Tri Nations review, five writers have put pen to paper to assess who performed well in 2020, and who might be nervously looking over their shoulder.
Who was the best newcomer to international rugby throughout this Tri Nations?
BS: Marcos Kremer isn’t a newcomer to international rugby but it is hard to argue that another player had as much of a leap as he had in the 2020 Tri-Nations.
His unrestrained physicality at times bordered on psychotic, but his performance against the All Blacks almost single-handedly shut down their attack with 28 tackles.
As a disruptive force, Kremer manhandled some of the best players in the world and seemingly stripped away their superhuman strengths. You don’t see many players stopping Ardie Savea’s leg drive and putting him behind the gain line.
Caleb Clarke for New Zealand and Harry Wilson for Australia are two deserving picks otherwise.
The announcement of World Rugby's Team of the Decade on Tuesday has brought with it an avalanche of criticism from fans over the selection and non-selection of certain players.https://t.co/yK7iv1s1lJ
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) December 7, 2020
FM: Harry Wilson – it has to be.
In his first season in green and gold, Wilson was among the standouts week to week, and was one of the Wallabies’ more consistent performers as well.
The Number Eight’s work rate is incredibly impressive, and he isn’t afraid to put his body on the line. Wilson was one of four players to have started every test match this year for the Wallabies, all from the back of the scrum except for the first test where he lined up at Blindside Flanker.
His ability is simply beyond his years, which is why it’s not too outlandish to see that questions about his future test captaincy credentials are being asked.
Having only turned 21 late last month, Wilson isn’t just a player for the future, but he’s quickly become a key part of the Wallabies’ resurgence towards glory.
TV: Caleb Clarke was exceptional in his first two games for the All Blacks but wasn’t quite as influential during the Tri Nations itself. Argentina’s Santiago Chocobares did everything that was asked of him when called upon, especially in his debut against the All Blacks, and probably deserved more chances.
It’s hard to go past Australia No 8 Harry Wilson, however, who started in every Wallabies match this year. The 21-year-old never took a backwards step and gave the Wallabies a big presence in the midfield – both on attack and defence. Dave Rennie blooded plenty of youngsters this season, but it was Wilson who had the biggest impact.
NT: Santiago Chocobares – his performance against the All Blacks in round 3 was something to behold. The young centre had no fear of his seasoned opponent in Jack Goodhue and simply out thought, out muscled and out enthused his opponent.
Based on this season’s performances, has Ian Foster done enough to secure his place as All Blacks head coach beyond next year?
BS: The best thing about Foster’s staff was their ability to adjust and fix problems. After the draw against the Wallabies, they changed the entire scheme to a power-based system which bullied the Aussies at Eden Park.
After losing to the Pumas, they increased their attacking kick game by over 20% in the second test instead of trying to run through a brick wall.
They patiently built scoreboard pressure and forced the Pumas to implode trying to chase a game, blowing out from 17-0 to 38-0 over the last quarter of the game.
These are important steps to make as a squad but in order to win a World Cup they can’t adjust after the fact, they need to rescue games in the moment.
The jury is out whether he will be extended, but with Italy and Fiji scheduled for July, there are some low-pressure games to start 2021.
FM: The All Blacks’ fans, players, staff and board members have all come to expect excellence from the team, but this year was far from that.
Drawing with the Wallabies in the opening test of the year was shocking in itself, but to then lose to the Pumas for the first time ever, shows that the All Blacks aren’t headed in the right direction.
For next year though, Ian Foster is the coach – I can’t see any change happening. Even though fans are crying out for Scott Robertson to save the day, waiting at least one more year will likely be the case in my opinion.
But beyond that, if Foster can’t turn the All Blacks around and begin to steer them in the right direction, then nobody would win by continuing to have him on board.
Loyalty is important to the All Blacks but surely only if it warrants results?
TRANSFER UPDATE:
https://t.co/JSOFVJXanx— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) December 7, 2020
TV: No – but that would be the case even if the All Blacks had won all six of their matches. 2020 has not been an easy year for first-time coaches thanks to all the disruption and while New Zealand Rugby won’t be overly happy with the results, they certainly will reserve judgement until next year.
NT: Let’s see what happens next year. If he fails then the question might be asked but even Sir Ted failed before he won. I think New Zealand should get off Fozzie’s case and back him. Give him the latitude others have enjoyed before consigning him to the dust bin.
How do you rate Dave Rennie’s first season in charge of the Wallabies, and what needs to change for him to get them to where he wants them to be?
BS: The Wallabies are playing much better rugby in 2020 despite the three draws. As a season grade, it has to be a pass.
This was a side who were losing by an average score of 41-13 to the All Blacks consistently over the last World Cup cycle.
They are on the up and you’d have to think that trajectory will continue as they build more experience.
FM: When he put pen to paper with the Wallabies, Rennie knew what he was signing up for – realistically, it was never going to be smooth sailing right from the get-go.
In his first squad, he selected 16-uncapped players and 10 more with fewer than 10 tests to their name.
But having won just one from six, including three draws, he still would’ve wanted more from a largely inexperienced side. That being said, that win was over the All Blacks.
For that reason, Rennie has led the Wallabies to a ‘C+’ level, but what the foundations he’s laid could lead to future successes.
Honestly what needs to change is the test schedule. Obviously COVID-19 meant that the test calendar was restricted, and that they’d have to face the heavily favoured All Blacks four times. It’d do the Wallabies a lot of good to test themselves in Europe, namely against the likes of Italy and Scotland, as they look to build a bit of confidence for the years ahead.
TV: Despite the fact that Rennie is coming in as a first-time international coach and he significantly rejigged the Australian squad, there’s still no excuse for finishing third in a Tri-Nations played entirely at home. The Wallabies should have beaten Argentina twice – and probably New Zealand at least once more too.
Still, like Foster, the jury will be out until Rennie is able to run an uninterrupted campaign and gets to play some more non-All Black opposition.
NT: I am satisfied with Dave Rennie’s first season with the Wallabies. He is building a connection within the side and with the Australian rugby public and only positive things will come from that.
The Wallabies have no issue in gaining possession but have issues with what to do with it. Their backline play is misaligned all too often and their accuracy at the point of contact is abysmal. This is a side that does not respect possession as much as it should.
Rennie must be ruthless in his pursuit of excellence if he wants to get the best out his side because they don’t know how good they could be. He needs to show them. Otherwise, he may just become ‘Kiwi Dave’ who is a cracker of a bloke and coached the Wallabies for a bit.
Comments on RugbyPass
Hold the phone, decline over-rated. Is it a one game, dead cat bounce or the real thing? Has the Penney dropped? Stay tuned.
39 Go to commentsTotally deserved win for the Crusaders Far smarter than the Chiefs who seem to be avoiding the basics when it matters Hotham showed them what was missing and Hannah seems a real find - a tad light but that can be fixed over time
8 Go to commentsGreat insight into the performance culture with Sarries and I predict Christie will be a fixture in the Scotland team now for some time to come. However, he is slightly missing his own point around Scotland “being soft” when he cites physicality examples in defence of that slight. The issue is much closer to the example he referenced around feeling off before a game but being told “it doesn’t matter, you can still play well” by Farrell. Until Scotland can get their psyche in that square, they will carry on folding under extreme pressure…
1 Go to comments> We are having to adapt, evolve and innovate more than when we were in Super Rugby where there was only really one style that everybody had to play to gain the most success. Have = able to? Interesting what that one style might be? I thought SA sides still had bad tours now, or at least bad schedule, months away? Those extra few hours flights have to be a killer though, no surprise to see their sides doing so badly at the start of the season each year. I wouldn’t enjoy that unfairness as a supporter.
5 Go to commentsThe problem for NZ, and Aus, is they ripped up the SR model and lost a massive chunk of revenue that hasn’t been replaced. Don’t forget SA clubs went North because they were left with no choice, Argy unceremoniously binned and Japan cast adrift. Now SR wasn’t perfect, far from it, but they’ve jumped into something without an effective plan, so far, to replace what they’ve lost. The biggest revenue potential now lies in Japan but it won’t be easy or quick to unlock, they are incredibly insular in culture as a nation. In the meantime, there is a serious time bomb sitting under SH rugby and if it happens then the current financial challenges will look like a picnic. IF the Boks follow their provincial teams and head north then it’s revenue meltdown. Not guaranteed to happen but the status quo is a very odd hybrid, with the Boks pointing one way and the clubs pointing the other way. And for as long as that remains then the threat is real.
39 Go to commentsI think Etene has had some good tuition, likely while at the Warriors to be a professional that helped his rugby jump, but he was certainly thrown in the deep end way too early. Should have arguably 20 less SR caps, and therefor a way better record that he does at his age, but his development would have been fast tracked by the need to satiate his signing away from league. Again, credit to him and others that he has done it so well. Easy to fall over under that pressure in the big leagues like that but he kept at it when I myself wasn’t sure he was good enough.
1 Go to commentsAwesome story. I wonder what a bigger American (SA) scene might have mean for Brex.
1 Go to comments“Johnny McNicholl and the Crusaders” save a Penney. Who has been in camp this week and showed them how to play?
8 Go to commentsSo, reports of the Crusaders’ demise / terminal decline are perhaps just - slightly - premature/exaggerated…? 🤔 Will we see a deep-dive into that by the estimable Rugbypass scribes, and maybe one or two mea culpas? Thought not.
8 Go to comments1. The Chiefs are rudderless without DMac, which enhances his AB chances 2. Chiefs pack are powderpuffs. The hard men arent there anymore 3. They had their golden title chance last yr and wont threaten this yr. Gone in second round of playoffs.
8 Go to commentsHonestly, why did you have to publish such a foolish article the day they play us? 😂
39 Go to comments> They are not standalone entities. They are linked to an amateur association which holds the FFR licence that allows the professional side to compete in the league. That’s a great rule. This looks like the chicken or egg professional scenario. How long is it going to be before the club can break even (if that is even a thing in French rugby)? If the locals aren’t into well it would be good to se them drop to amateur level (is it that far?). Hope they can reset from this level and be more practical, there will be a time when they can rebuild (if France has there setup right).
1 Go to commentsWhat about changing the ball? To something heavier and more pointed that bounces unpredictably. Not this almost round football used these days.
35 Go to commentsThis is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?
35 Go to commentsWow, didn’t realise there was such apathy to URC in SA, or by Champions Cup teams. Just read Nick’s article on Crusaders, are Sharks a similar circumstance? I think SA rugby has been far more balanced than NZs, no?
4 Go to commentsBut here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.
39 Go to commentsIt could be coincidental or prescient that the All Blacks most dominant period under Steve Hansen was when the Crusaders had their least successful period under Todd Blackadder and then the positions reversed when Razor took over the Crusaders.
39 Go to commentsDefinitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to commentsSinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
2 Go to commentsThanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
39 Go to comments