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Our Super Rugby stats guru offers his tips for the weekend’s games.
Just 5/9 correct picks for the Oracle last week in what was the worst tipping round of the year. The season record now stands at 82/112, dropping to 73%. Will the last round before the international break bring better luck?
Blues vs Reds (Apia)
The first Super Rugby match to be played in Apia is going to be an interesting event. It marks the first time the Apia Park lights will be used for a big game, and how the locals react to a Friday night game will be of keen interest to the money men in both countries. Samoa, for all its attractions as a rugby nation, is not a cheap venue to get to and the stadium is a lot smaller than the one at Suva, so several things other than rugby will be under the microscope. The Blues should win comfortably, although the pitch is a little narrower than they’re used to and therefore more up-the-guts footy may be required.
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Pick: Blues
Crusaders vs Highlanders (Christchurch)
Somebody’s long winning streak has to come to an end in Christchurch on Saturday afternoon. There is so much to look forward to in this match but I suspect it will be decided in the front fives; the Highlanders’ never-say-die attitude is thoroughly admirable but I’m not sure it can match the all-All Blacks set the Crusaders can field. Everything else is about even, so I’ll go for the home team by five to ten points here. I’m really looking forward to this one.
Pick: Crusaders
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Chiefs vs Waratahs (Hamilton)
Unless something really strange happens, the Chiefs will win this match comfortably. The Waratahs haven’t been flash all season and, while they played for a few minutes of each half at Dunedin, they couldn’t crack the Highlanders until it was too late in the second spell. That’s after making fewer mistakes than in any other game all season. The Chiefs were under the pump all night at Eden Park but a couple of moments of brilliance got them off the hook and forced a draw that the run of play said was not an option for them. Better goal-kicking would help, but it shouldn’t be necessary to secure this win.
Pick: Chiefs
Brumbies vs Rebels (Canberra)
Given the respective standings of these teams, the fact the Brumbies have everything to gain and that the Rebels season is over, one should be quite comfortable picking the visitors, even on the back of a round-the-world trip, to win handsomely. If Stephen Larkham actually lets them get on with playing rugby rather than playing for a 5m maul, they should do it easily. If they turn it into a forward grind, it could be one of the least watchable matches of the season. But unless the world spins off its axis, the result should be predictably in favour of the Brumbies.
Pick: Brumbies
Force vs Hurricanes (Perth)
Only the fact this match is being played at Perth prevents me from predicting a wide margin for the Hurricanes – and that’s giving the Force credit for a strong display at Brisbane. No matter how well they played, and they were accurate, you have to factor in that they were playing the Reds. The Hurricanes will be looking for a better start than they made at Pretoria, when Egon Seconds could only see their errors for the first quarter, but even so they were good enough to win going away. I expect the Hurricanes to win easily.
Pick: Hurricanes
This is a split round, with the South African teams making up their fixtures on 1 July.
In brief: Blues / Crusaders / Chiefs / Brumbies / Hurricanes
Comments on RugbyPass
Will rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
2 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
2 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
2 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
28 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
2 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
1 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
2 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to commentsAnd the person responsible for creating a culture of accountability is?
3 Go to commentsMore useless words from Ben Smith -Please get another team to write about. SA really dont need your input, it suck anyway.
264 Go to commentsThis disgraceful episode must result in management and coach team sackings. A new manager with worse results than previous and the coaching staff need to coached. Awful massacre led by donkeys.
1 Go to commentsInteresting article with one glaring mistake. This sentence: “And between the top four nations right now, Ireland, France, South Africa, and New Zealand…” should read: And between the top four nations right now, South Africa, Ireland, New Zealand and France…”. Get it right wistful thinkers, its not that hard.
24 Go to commentsHow did Penny get the gig anyway?
3 Go to commentsNice write up Nick and I would have agreed a week ago. However as you would know Cale & co got absolutely monstered by the Blues back row of Sotutu, Ioane and Papaliti and not all of these 3 are guaranteed a start in the Black jumper. He may need to put some kgs before stepping up, Spring tour? After the week end Joe will be a bit more restless. Will need to pick a mobile tough pack for Wales and hope England does the right thing and bashes the ABs. I like your last paragraph but I would bring Swinton, Hannigan into the 6 role and Bobby V to 8
28 Go to commentsThe Crusaders can still get in to the Play Off’s. The imminent return of outstanding captain Scott Barrett and his All Black team mate Codie Taylor will be a big boost.There are others like Tamaiti Williams too. Two home games coming up. Fellow Crusader fans get there and support these guys. I will be.
2 Go to commentsCant get more Wellington than Proctor.
3 Go to comments