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Our Super Rugby stats guru offers his tips for the weekend’s games.
If you placed an accumulator on the Oracle’s picks last week, congratulations – you’re probably reading this from the front seat of your brand new Ferrari. 8 from 8, a perfect week, brings the Oracle’s season record to 67/87, up to 77%. He’s on fire!
Blues vs Cheetahs (Auckland)
The outcome of this game probably depends on which Blues team shows up. If it is the one that played the first half at Sydney, the Cheetahs will really struggle. If it’s the one that came out after the break, the visitors will be in with a shout. While it was a true game of two halves in Sydney, over in Bloemfontein the Cheetahs put together what was just about their best 70 minutes of the season, maybe 74 minutes … but in the last five or six the Highlanders scored and converted three tries to overturn a 17-point deficit. The Blues have to view at this match as a must-win five-pointer; they need it to stay on the pace in the New Zealand conference, which is just about to get a whole lot tougher in the next fortnight.
Pick: Blues
Brumbies vs Lions (Canberra)
History says the Lions don’t play well Canberra, although it’s a place they haven’t played since before they were booted out of the competition for the Kings to come in several eons ago. Since then the Lions have become the best South African team going, with a good pack, screeds of pace out wide and the ability to get the ball from one to the other and back again, before scoring a bunch of tries. The Brumbies might be the best of the Aussie teams but at 3-6 that doesn’t mean much. Neither their record, nor their style of play, will have the Lions overly worried. The visitors should take this one fairly comfortably.
Pick: Lions
Crusaders vs Hurricanes (Christchurch)
In the immortal words of Billy Birmingham, this game is harder to pick than a broken nose. Both teams are tearing it up in 2017, with one loss between them and piles of overpowering wins. They are two of the three form teams of the competition, yet one will drop off the pace on Saturday. If it’s the Crusaders, the Lions suddenly get a big boost towards overall top spot and the non-travelling playoff slot, while the Hurricanes probably lose all chance at topping the New Zealand group if they go under. I honestly have no idea how this one will play out, but I think the imagination among the Hurricanes’ backs might just tip the scales in what should be a game for the ages.
Pick: Hurricanes
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Rebels vs Reds (Melbourne)
From the best Super Rugby has to offer to the worst. Both these teams are weak in 2017 – injuries have been an issue for both, and neither has a deep enough squad to cope. The Rebels are suffering more at the moment; they have honest forwards but little punch in the backs and it’s no use having two strong wingers if the rest of the team are ordinary. Of the two sides I think the Reds have a little more get up and go, and more imagination, but I wouldn’t be prepared to back that opinion with hard cash.
Pick: Reds
Bulls vs Highlanders (Pretoria)
The Bulls got taught a fairly brutal lesson by the Crusaders last week, while the Highlanders delivered one to the Cheetahs after getting themselves into all kinds of trouble for the first 75 minutes. The confidence in both camps, therefore, will be at diametrically opposite ends of the scale and I more or less expect the teams to play like it. I’m picking the Highlanders to get a comfortable win here – more comfortable than at Bloemfontein, because I think they may have taken that one a bit lightly.
Pick: Highlanders
Kings vs Sharks (Port Elizabeth)
Despite the fact the Kings are playing entertaining football and moving the ball wide whenever they can, often with telling effect, I’m not sure that’s going to achieve a whole lot against the Sharks. These guys are not pretty but they are brutally efficient, and they’ll be dark about missing a bonus point last week despite winning easily. You also have to remember who the Kings have run up those scores against; they did well against the Australians, but you can’t get over-excited about that. Thus far in their Super rugby career they’re still 0-fer against fellow South African sides, and I don’t expect that to change against a Sharks side that now has a very clear look at the playoffs.
Pick: Sharks
Jaguares vs Force (Buenos Aires)
The Jaguares will be getting the message loud and clear this week after an ordinary showing against the Sunwolves. The South Americans were lucky to emerge with the win – although in the end it only took them 20 minutes of concentrated rugby to get it. The Force won’t present the same challenges, as they don’t spread the ball well, and the Jaguares can play against limited opposition all day long without getting bored. The home side will win this one easily, but it might not be the prettiest watch of the weekend.
Pick: Jaguares
Comments on RugbyPass
“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
3 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
2 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
3 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
3 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
3 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
2 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
4 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to commentsJake White is a brilliant coach and a master in the press. This is another masterclass in media relations and PR but its also a very narrow view with arguments that dont always hold water. White wants his team to win, he wants the best players in SA and wants his team competitive. You however have to face up to the reality of a poor exchange rate and big clubs with big budgets. SA Rugby cant compete and unless it can find more money SA players will keep leaving regardless of Springbok eligibility and this happened in 2015 - 2017. Also rugby is not cricket. Cricket has 3 formats and T20 cricket is where the money is at. When it comes to club vs country the IPL is king but that wont happen because the international calendar does not clash with the club calendar in rugby. So the argument about rugby going down the same path as cricket is really a non-starter
22 Go to commentsNZ rugby seem not to have learnt anything from professional rugby. Super rugby was dying and SA left before they died with the competition. SA rugby did a u turn on their approach to international players playing overseas and such players are now selected for Bok teams. As much as each country would love to retain their players playing in local competitions, this is the way the world is evolving my friends. Move with it or stay 20 years behind the times. One more thing. NZ rugby hierarchy think they are the big cheese. Take a more humble approach guys. You do not seem to have your players best interests at heart.
3 Go to commentsBeaches? In Cardiff? Where?
1 Go to commentsHe is right , the Crusaders will be a threat. Scott Barrett, ( particularly), Fergus Burke , Codie Taylor, ( from sabbatical) etc due back soon for the Crusaders. There are others like Zach Gallagher too. People can right the Crusaders off, Top 8 , here we come !!
1 Go to commentsWe will always struggle for money to match the other sides but the least the WRU can do is invest properly in Welsh rugby. Too much has been squandered on vanity projects like the hotel and roof walk amongst others which will never see a massive return. Hanging the 4 pro sides out to dry over the last decade is now coming back to bite the WRU financially as well as on the pitch. You reap what you sow.
1 Go to commentsWhat do you get if you cross a doctor with a fish? A plastic sturgeon
14 Go to commentsWhat happened to feleti Kaitu’u? Hasnt played in a while right?
1 Go to commentsGregor I just can’t agree with you. You are trying to find something that just isn’t there. Jordie Barrett has signed until 2028. By the end of that he would have spent probably 11-12 years on Super Rugby and you say he can’t possibly have one season playing somewhere else. It is absurd. What about this scenario, the NZR play hard ball and he decides to leave and play overseas. How would that affect the competition. There seems to be an agenda by certain journalists to push certain agendas and don’t like it when it’s not to their liking. I fully support the NZR on this. Gregor needs to get a life.
3 Go to commentsHope he stays as believe he can do a great job.
1 Go to comments