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Our Super Rugby stats guru offers his tips for the weekend’s games.
Another 6/8 week in Round 10. The Reds ruined the Oracle’s week by losing to the Tahs and the Jaguares rubbing it in by slipping up against the Sharks. That season record is now at 59/79, still 75%. Here’s what the Round 11 tea leaves foretell.
Hurricanes vs Stormers (Wellington)
This match won’t be fun for the Hurricanes players and coaches to prepare for because everyone expects them to turn up and win by 50. The Stormers have been wiped off the map by the two South Island sides and four of their key players are winging their way home this week, so how can you like them against the Hurricanes? The short answer from where I’m sitting is you can’t. The Hurricanes have been clinically undressing teams all year with a variety of tricks and moments of creative genius, and I doubt the Stormers can muster a convincing reply. If the home side doesn’t win this handsomely there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Pick: Hurricanes
Cheetahs vs Highlanders (Bloemfontein)
These games are becoming potential banana skins. Not because anyone would think the Cheetahs can stop the Highlanders if they perform the way they have been for the last month, but because that hoary old chestnut the ‘Law of Averages’ keeps rearing its ugly head every time a New Zealand side plays one from overseas. Actually, the Law of Averages says all the New Zealand teams are miles better than the outfits they’re playing and therefore should win by plenty. Given we’re into high-veldt winter with its fine days and settled weather, the visitors should strike conditions they’re comfortable with and put the home side away without too many problems.
Pick: Highlanders
Rebels vs Lions (Melbourne)
Anyone with eyes could pick only one possible result in this match – a big Lions victory. That sort of expectation never sits well with a team, but the Lions are too clever to start believing that such an outcome will fall into their laps. They’ll have to put the work in but, if they do, that big win should be achieved without too much bother. The Lions were poor in Perth but they are strong across the park, while the Rebels are in all sorts of bad places at the moment and I for one cannot see how they’ll keep it below 40 points unless the weather goes to the dogs.
Pick: Lions
Chiefs vs Reds (New Plymouth)
The Chiefs will be hoping for one thing above all others this weekend – a referee they can get on track with and whose rulings show some consistency. Two weeks ago at Perth they had all kinds of trouble at scrums, where Nic Berry overlooked the fact they had a massively stronger pack, and last week at Hamilton the Sunwolves were allowed to get away with far too much fiddling around and fringing play in the rucks. Will Houston hardly inspired confidence and, given the Chiefs are currently having handling troubles, they’ll want to get the ref out of their heads early this week. If they can, the Reds are just the sort of team they’ll want to play – prone to making mistakes and falling off tackles. The home side should win and do it well, but I bear in mind the fact the Chiefs have historically had a lot of problems with these Reds for no apparent reason.
Pick: Chiefs
Waratahs vs Blues (Sydney)
This is a matchup that has historically been overwhelmingly in favour of the home team.If that proves to be the case this week I suspect Tana Umaga, his assistants and a few others will be falling from the plane back across the Tasman without the benefit of parachutes.The Waratahs might have won last week but they were very ordinary, and only got up thanks to persistent infringing by the Reds. Bernard Foley served notice that he can win matches off the tee given the chance; if the Blues play as they did at Canberra he won’t get those chances unless his range suddenly zooms out to 75m. The Blues didn’t finish much against the Brumbies and missed too many easy goal attempts, but they did a lot right too. They hardly made a stupid error all game and looked after the ball for long periods. Do that again and put some zing into the attack, and they could take this one by a bit – but ‘a bit’ at Allianz may only be 10-15 points.
Pick: Blues
Sharks vs Force (Durban)
This has the potential to be a truly awful game. Both sides can get caught grinding and trying very little; you only have to think back two weeks to the Sharks vs Rebels clash, and the Force vs Chiefs game the same weekend. Imagine mating those two games and getting the worst of both worlds. Let’s hope the Sharks’ display at Buenos Aires is a better pointer. I thought they played well for long patches and shut the Jaguares out of the match in fine style. Add Curwin Bosch’s form off the tee, and the score could tick up in lots of three until suddenly it’s 21-0 or thereabouts and the Sharks will be off to the Durban races. The Force will try hard, but their backline offers virtually no threat to an organised defence (which the Sharks certainly have). Unless they get a few kind bounces and the home side is rubbish, the Force will be on the thin end of this one.
Pick: Sharks
Bulls vs Crusaders (Pretoria)
Normally this matchup goes in favour of the home side. The Crusaders haven’t won in Pretoria since 2008 and the Bulls’ record in New Zealand is diabolical. This time, however, the visitors are expected to win easily – the Crusaders are 9-0 and the Bulls have been underwhelming despite trying to play a brighter game. Kieran Read and Sam Whitelock mare both out through injury and suspension respectively, but Pete Samu and Luke Romano are hardly sub-par replacements. No matter how you dress this one up the Crusaders should run their winning streak out to ten games, and take the bonus point for good measure.
Pick: Crusaders
Jaguares vs Sunwolves (Buenos Aires)
The Sunwolves have had to suck up a tough tour of New Zealand and a long west-east journey for this game, only to meet a snarly, niggly Jaguares side who will be smarting about dumping their perfect home record. The Sharks outplayed the Jaguares up front last week and made smart decisions when it mattered. The Sunwolves tried hard in Hamilton but I suspect that if they hadn’t been allowed to make such a mess of the breakdowns they might have gone under by a bit. That said, they took whatever they could get and made it pay. They’ll miss Jamie-Jerry Taulagi, who had been one of their best backs this season – he copped a suspension for a dumb shoulder charge late in last week’s game. I’m trying to find ways to pick ‘Visitors 1-12’, but they don’t exist for me. I only see a hefty Jaguares win here.
Pick: Jaguares
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In brief: Hurricanes / Highlanders / Lions / Chiefs / Blues / Sharks / Crusaders / Jaguares
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Comments on RugbyPass
I wonder what impact Samson has had on their attack, as the team seems less prone to trundle it up the middle, take the tackle and then trundle it up again. I lost faith in the coach last year as the Rebelss looked like a 2nd/3rd rate South African team. I also disliked Gordon standing back, often ignored as the forward battle went on and on. Maybe its our Aussie way of not getting off our A***’s until the enemy is at the gate.
83 Go to commentsThanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
83 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
4 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
26 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
4 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
4 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
13 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
26 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to comments