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Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for the weekend’s games.
Congratulations to the Southern Kings on beating the Waratahs in Sydney last weekend and ruining the Oracle’s round. Taking the draw in Durban on the chin meant 6/8 correct picks for the week – 53/71 for the season – the Oracle’s overall success rate holding firm at 75%. Here’s what Round 10 has in store.
Highlanders vs Stormers (Dunedin)
A very interesting match to start the weekend. The Highlanders will be fielding a close to full-strength squad for this one. We’ve seen over the last two or three years that means they scrap and fight for everything, no matter how tough it may be. The Stormers weren’t 33 points off the pace last week – they copped a few rough decisions and by the time the game settled down the Crusaders were long gone. This is almost flip a coin territory – I think the Stormers are a good side but I’m still going to take the home side by one score, and hope they can hang onto the ball this week. Makes life a lot easier.
Pick: Highlanders
Chiefs vs Sunwolves (Hamilton)
Unless the Chiefs are jetlagged to the max and/or play their 2nd XV, they should win this one by plenty. Unfortunately for the Sunwolves, any possible complacency would have been knocked out of the Chiefs by their fairly shabby display at Perth, where it took them all their time to beat what is a very limited Force side. The Sunwolves got dusted off by the Highlanders – again a couple of iffy decisions went with the home side just before halftime – but they have had no answer to any of the New Zealand sides they’ve faced this year when the guns are on the field. If the Chiefs run their big men out and pay attention to the details, they should win by 50.
Pick: Chiefs
Reds vs Waratahs (Brisbane)
Remember when this was one of the year’s most eagerly-awaited clashes? Believe it or not, the Reds, who sit 14th on the table and have hardly played a solid 80 minutes this season, are the favourites to win. The Waratahs are 16th, and playing even worse footy. Daryl Gibson might be on a knife-edge in Sydney but he should remind his players that he can take some of them with him if they don’t pull finger. I have no idea who is going to win this one, as both teams should be way better than they have been. I might run with the Reds simply because they look less of a rabble than the Waratahs at present.
Pick: Reds
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Force vs Lions (Perth)
This is another of those games that will depend on how the heavily-favoured side scrubs up after travel. The Force are tough at home – they stuck with the Chiefs last week through a combination of poor play by the visitors and some real home-town refereeing. I thought 16-7 was way too close and that 20-0 would have been a much fairer score (try to Cruden instead of one penalty, and Hodgson’s try ruled out). The Lions had to work against the Jaguares but got it done; they should have far too much for the embattled home side and if they’re on their game the visitors should be 20 points the better.
Pick: Lions
Cheetahs vs Crusaders (Bloemfontein)
This is the third game of the weekend that should be heavily in favour of one side over the other, but travel and the possible resting of a significant number of first-string players may just mess with that. The Cheetahs are a side capable of holding stronger opponents for a while, but they shouldn’t be able to stay with a side like the Crusaders over 80 minutes. What the visitors don’t want is to take the game lightly and find themselves even with 20 to go, because those games can become very difficult to win. Assuming the Crusaders treat it properly, they should jump out to a good lead early enough to give all the second-stringers a decent run and still win comfortably.
Pick: Crusaders
Kings vs Rebels (Port Elizabeth)
How on earth are you supposed to guess what’s going to happen here? These are two of the weakest sides in the competition yet both have taken points off sides that should have thumped them in the last two weeks. The Rebels sneaked in against the Brumbies a fortnight ago while the Kings toppled the Waratahs. In both cases they were aided by their opponent playing down to their level. The Kings try to play an expansive game and are dangerous when they can get the ball wide; their outside backs have a heap of speed and probably more than the Rebels can match. If the Kings can get that ball moving, they should take it comfortably. But if it stays untidy and around the forwards, I’d pick the Rebels to win. I’ll flip a coin – it’s one of those games.
Pick: Heads (Kings)
Jaguares vs Sharks (Buenos Aires)
The trip to Argentina is a pain in the butt for the South Africans. They have to make a long, tiring journey just for one game, and so far nobody has done it and returned unscathed. Given how the Sharks played last week they won’t break the mould; they were bloody awful against the Rebels and sheer stupidity cost them more points than they managed to score. Back in the Jake White days they would have won that match 24-9, eight penalty goals to three, but this time they tried to become some attacking force when they couldn’t even hold a grudge. The Jaguares are boring at times but generally effective, and it will take some significant improvement for the visitors to get home in this one. I can’t see it – I’m having the Jaguares by 10-15 points.
Pick: Jaguares
Brumbies vs Blues (Canberra)
Top of the Australian conference versus bottom of the New Zealand conference – but both have identical season records (won 3, lost 5, 17 points). The Blues will be primed for this match – they can’t win against local opposition but they don’t have too many issues with Australian teams. In fact they haven’t lost a trans-Tasman match since 2015. I thought the Brumbies weren’t actually 35 points worse than the Hurricanes last Friday, rather the Hurricanes took every single chance and made a few from nothing. In reality, the two teams were an almost an even match on the stats sheet, just not the scoreboard. The Blues need to get going if they harbour any playoff aspirations, especially if the Highlanders win earlier in the round, and I’m picking the visitors to get this done narrowly – but they have to be at least as good as they were against the Hurricanes a couple of weeks back.
Pick: Blues
In brief: Highlanders / Chiefs / Reds / Lions / Crusaders / Kings / Jaguares / Blues
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Comments on RugbyPass
Billy's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
2 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
28 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
1 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
1 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
2 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to commentsAnd the person responsible for creating a culture of accountability is?
3 Go to commentsMore useless words from Ben Smith -Please get another team to write about. SA really dont need your input, it suck anyway.
264 Go to commentsThis disgraceful episode must result in management and coach team sackings. A new manager with worse results than previous and the coaching staff need to coached. Awful massacre led by donkeys.
1 Go to commentsInteresting article with one glaring mistake. This sentence: “And between the top four nations right now, Ireland, France, South Africa, and New Zealand…” should read: And between the top four nations right now, South Africa, Ireland, New Zealand and France…”. Get it right wistful thinkers, its not that hard.
24 Go to commentsHow did Penny get the gig anyway?
3 Go to commentsNice write up Nick and I would have agreed a week ago. However as you would know Cale & co got absolutely monstered by the Blues back row of Sotutu, Ioane and Papaliti and not all of these 3 are guaranteed a start in the Black jumper. He may need to put some kgs before stepping up, Spring tour? After the week end Joe will be a bit more restless. Will need to pick a mobile tough pack for Wales and hope England does the right thing and bashes the ABs. I like your last paragraph but I would bring Swinton, Hannigan into the 6 role and Bobby V to 8
28 Go to commentsThe Crusaders can still get in to the Play Off’s. The imminent return of outstanding captain Scott Barrett and his All Black team mate Codie Taylor will be a big boost.There are others like Tamaiti Williams too. Two home games coming up. Fellow Crusader fans get there and support these guys. I will be.
2 Go to commentsCant get more Wellington than Proctor.
3 Go to commentsWhy not let the media decide. Like how they choose the head coach. Like most of us we entrust the rugby system to choose. A rugby team includes the coaches. It's collective.
14 Go to commentsHi NIck, I have been very impressed with him and he seems a smart player who can see opportunities which Bobby V _(who must be an international 6_) doesn’t see or have the speed to take advantage of. If he continues to improve and puts on 5kgs then he could be a great 8. He is a bit taller than Keiran Reid at 1.93m and 111 kgs, so his skill set fits his body size and who knows where it will lead. I hope the spate of Achilles tendon issues have been dealt with by the S&C people. It’s been a very long time since Mark Loane and Kefu stood out at 8. The question is will we be able to hold onto him, if he does make it he will be pretty hot property. I disagree with the idea of letting them go to the Northern Hemisphere and then bring them back.
28 Go to commentsBilly Fulton 🤣🤣🤣🤣 garrrmon not even close
14 Go to comments