Stat attack: How Sam Warburton is more effective than Louis Picamoles
Effective carrying metres show us who the real best ball-carriers of the Six Nations are, writes Lee Calvert.
There are almost as many statistics around in rugby as there are reasons to dislike Austin Healey. However, this volume of statistics also means it’s very hard to see the useful ones among the bevvy of numbers being relentlessly thrown at us on social media.
One example from the weekend, during England’s surgical dismembering of Scotland, came when the RFU Twitter account told us that Maro Itoje had just carried the ball for his 100th metre in an England shirt. Other than the fact that this is a nice round number what is this telling us? Nothing of any relevance or insight, that’s what.
This useless Itoje stat reminds me of a quote that is often trotted out about statistics: that they are too often used like a drunk uses a lamppost: more for support than enlightenment. The overuse of carrying statistics and figures in the raw format is the perfect example of this.
For example, based on the raw figures alone, England fullback and winner of Europe’s Angriest Man, Mike Brown, is the leading ball carrier in the 2017 Six Nations with 370 metres. This is a statistic Mike’s defenders will use when anyone questions his place in the England team – “yes, alright, he might have all the attacking guile of a boiled carrot, look like a shaved Kray twin and pass like his hands are on the wrong way round, but he carries for 92.5 metres per game on average”. Fair point you might think, but you’d be wrong.
Total carry metres at the end of a match are dominated usually by the fullback and wingers. The reason for this is obvious: they field balls from long kicks and usually have some open pasture to run into before they have to worry about being tackled. Effectively, they are given a number of metres for free, so simply adding up the metres the likes of Mike Brown run is a statistic of questionable value.
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Instead, I asked Accenture, RBS Six Nations official technology partner, to do an analysis of effective carrying metres. That is, of the total metres a player has carried for, what percentage of those metres are accrued over the gain line. The player with the highest percentage score, therefore, is carrying the most metres beyond the tackle after busting the line. These are the real players doing the damage.
(Just in case you’re wondering, Mike Brown has a 25% effective carry score; in other words, three-quarters of his runs stop at or before the gain line. Compared to other fullbacks, that is worse than both Stuart Hogg (33%) and Rob Kearney (29%).)
Using the qualifying criteria that the player has carried the ball more than fifty metres in total across the first four rounds of Six Nations competition some interesting patterns start to present themselves. Five of the places in the top ten most effective carriers are scrum-halves, which is perhaps no surprise as given they pick up the ball on the gain line any carry forward, however small, is an effective one.
Louis Picamoles is considered by all to be a carrying colossus and indeed his 302 metre total across the tournament puts him second behind Brown on the raw score, ahead of the likes of Vakatawa, Liam Williams and other backs. However, his 54% effective carry score is just behind Sam Warburton’s 55%. The difference is that Sam has half the number of carries and an overall total of 61 metres. In other words, King Louis carries more often – which is to be expected for a Number 8 – and his bullocking runs may be more eye-catching, but Sam is just as effective when it comes to getting beyond the gain line.
Looking at all the data, a good effective carry score for a forward is 40-45%. Anything above 50% is exceptional.
So who is the player (who meets the minimum 50 metres carried criteria) with the highest effective carry score? Actually, there are two players, both on 67%: England centre Jonathan Joseph (from 167m total) and Scotland wing Tim Visser (from 101m total). And who is at the bottom of the heap? Scotland’s loosie, Ryan Wilson, who has carried for 61 metres with only 17% being over the gain line.
Perhaps the most eye-catching stat of all is this: of the 172 players that have had some field time in the 2017 tournament, only 41 have an effective carry score greater than 49%.
To put it another way, when carrying the ball, nearly three-quarters of players fail to get over the gain line more than half the time they have a run.
If we didn’t know already, Six Nations defences are difficult to get behind. The stats have now confirmed it.
Comments on RugbyPass
Super rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
8 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
8 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
16 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
16 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
6 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to commentsJake White is a brilliant coach and a master in the press. This is another masterclass in media relations and PR but its also a very narrow view with arguments that dont always hold water. White wants his team to win, he wants the best players in SA and wants his team competitive. You however have to face up to the reality of a poor exchange rate and big clubs with big budgets. SA Rugby cant compete and unless it can find more money SA players will keep leaving regardless of Springbok eligibility and this happened in 2015 - 2017. Also rugby is not cricket. Cricket has 3 formats and T20 cricket is where the money is at. When it comes to club vs country the IPL is king but that wont happen because the international calendar does not clash with the club calendar in rugby. So the argument about rugby going down the same path as cricket is really a non-starter
22 Go to commentsNZ rugby seem not to have learnt anything from professional rugby. Super rugby was dying and SA left before they died with the competition. SA rugby did a u turn on their approach to international players playing overseas and such players are now selected for Bok teams. As much as each country would love to retain their players playing in local competitions, this is the way the world is evolving my friends. Move with it or stay 20 years behind the times. One more thing. NZ rugby hierarchy think they are the big cheese. Take a more humble approach guys. You do not seem to have your players best interests at heart.
8 Go to comments