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We look at the key battles in the opening three matches of the 2017 Six Nations.
Scotland vs Ireland at Murrayfield (Saturday, February 4, 10.25pm HKT)
What we can expect
The Six Nations kicks off in Edinburgh with a match that is much harder to call than it has been in recent seasons.
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Scotland
Once upon a time, not so very long ago, visitors headed to Murrayfield with great expectations. Not any more. Confidence is high in the Scotland camp after an impressive November international season, while Glasgow Warriors – who have supplied the bulk of the squad – are a force to be reckoned with in Europe and the Pro 12 this season. Coach Vern Cotter has said two wins would constitute ‘a pretty good Six Nations’ for a side that has in recent years found wins hard to come by. He may change his tune if they can open with a win against one of the pre-tournament favourites.
Ireland
Ireland have their eyes on a third Six Nations title in four years following a historic 2016 when they beat the southern hemisphere’s big three for the first time in a calendar year – and only a fool, or an England fan, would bet anything other than small sums of money against them. They boast serious strength in depth, in particular the back row, while the three-quarters are as quick-witted as they are fleet-footed.
All eyes on
Paddy Jackson. The 25-year-old Ulster fly-half steps once more into the breach left by the injured Johnny Sexton, who sits out this match with a niggling calf injury. Jackson has been here before, of course, having very successfully filled in for the influential Leinster man during the summer tour of South Africa. This, however, is the ground, and the match, at which Jackson endured a torrid international debut back in 2013. He will be looking to lay the ghost of that 12-8 defeat to rest.
Key battle: The front row
Scotland’s props – Zander Fagerson and Allan Dell – have seven caps between them, while hooker Fraser Brown has 20. There’s no doubt the Scottish front row has plenty of promise, but they face more experienced members of the 1-2-3 club at the coalface in Tadgh Furlong, Rory Best and Jack McGrath.
Prediction
A tough one, but Ireland have the strength in depth to handle what is sure to be an epic Scottish challenge. Ireland’s Munster-based scrum-half Conor Murray is bound to be a target, having accused the Glasgow contingent of deliberately targeting him during the two Pro 12 club’s Champions Cup pool 1 game. He may as well have painted a big target on his chest. If Scotland can torment the Murray-Jackson axis, things will get a little difficult for the visitors. Ireland by 5.
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England vs France at Twickenham (Sunday, February 5, 12.50am HKT)
What we can expect
It’s Le Crunch. Enough said.
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England
After that 2016, many people are asking whether Eddie Jones’s England are capable of improvement, or if they have reached a plateau. A lengthy injury list has not helped the English cause as they chase down New Zealand’s winning-run record. Even some players who are returning – notably James Haskell and Dylan Hartley – have played little rugby this year, so there’s a danger England could be a little undercooked.
France
This is not the France of recent years. This is a reboot. Less bosh and crash, more flair and derring-do. What fans want now are results as well as flair. It’s time for Guy Noves to deliver on his – and his team’s – promise.
All eyes on
The entire French team. Have they really rediscovered that long-forgotten flair?
Key battle: Owen Farrell and Jonathan Joseph v Gaël Fickou and Remi Lamerat
That midfield battle looks very tasty indeed. Farrell and Joseph cannot give either Fickou or Lamerat an inch because they are both capable of stealing a mile. And watch out for those offloads. But, then, Fickou and Lamerat cannot give Farrel or Joseph an inch for much the same reason…
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Prediction
For the first time in a decade, France are, genuinely, an unknown quantity. The question this time is not which France team will turn up, but whether they have taken the next step from the promise of the November internationals. Because nobody can still quite believe what they saw back then.
England probably have enough to weather a French February storm – but there could well be a few scares along the way. Don’t expect this game to be a done deal until very close to the final whistle. England by 7.
Italy vs Wales at Stadio Olimpico (Sunday, February 5, 10pm HKT)
What we can expect
If Italy are to spring a shock, this is the match to do it. If they catch Wales cold, it could be a long afternoon at the Olimpico office for the men in red.
Italy
Inconsistency dogs the Azzurri. They almost beat Argentina in June and did beat the Springboks for the first time in November. But those performances sandwiched other less-impressive results, including defeat to Tonga a week after knocking over South Africa. Coach Conor O’Shea’s decision to leave Exeter Chiefs’ Italian centre Michele Campagnaro on the bench has stopped more than a few people in their tracks. And no wonder. He’s impressed in both the Premiership and Champions Cup.
Wales
Three wins from four November internationals seems, on the face of it, a pretty solid return – but there are jitters among the Welsh faithful that something is rotten in the state of Cardiff. Having named seven uncapped players in his extended Six Nations’ squad, acting coach Rob Howley has pretty much stuck with the tried and tested.
All eyes on
Sergio Parisse. Who else could it be? The player who became a leader. The leader who became a legend. Italy are a different, more difficult proposition whenever he is on the field.
Key battle: Sergio Parisse v Ross Moriarty
No Taulupe Faletau for Wales means two ends of the international age range clash at the Stadio Olimpico. Eleven years and 109 caps separate the two nations number eights, but the young Gloucester man has done everything right while covering for Faletau.
Prediction
This could be close – too close for Welsh comfort. Italy have nothing to lose and everything to gain, so there could be trouble ahead for the visitors – especially if they are even just a little tentative. Wales by 6.
Comments on RugbyPass
I like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
8 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
8 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
8 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. At least Andrew Kellaway is like “Woah, yeah it’s great, but settle down there guys” having endured years of the Aussie media, fans, and often their players getting ahead of themselves only to fall flat on their faces. Have the “We'll win the Bledisloe for sure this year!” headlines started yet? It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
8 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
41 Go to commentsThanks, Nick. We (Seanny Maloney, Brett and I) just discussed Charlie as a potential Wallaby No 8, and wondered if he has truly realised how big he is in contact (and whether he can add 5 kg w/o slowing down). Your scouting report confirms our suspicions he has the materiel. No one knows if he has the mentality (as Johann van Graan said this week about CJ, Duane and Alfie B) to carry 10-15 times a game.
57 Go to commentsHe would be a great player for the Stormers, Dobbo should approach the guy.
3 Go to commentsGood article. A few years back when he was playing for the Cheetahs, he was a quiet standout for exactly the seasons stated here. I occasionally get to see his games in the UK, and he has become a more complete player and in many ways like an Irish player. His work ethic is so suitable to the Leinster game. I wonder if Rassie would have him listed somewhere.
3 Go to commentsResults probably skewed by the fact that a few clubs have foreign fly halves in their 30s, but most teams have young English scrum halves. Results also likely to be skewed by the fact that many teams rely on centres and fullbacks to provide depth at 10, whereas they will need to stock a large number of specialist backup 9s.
1 Go to commentsI really get the sense that when all is said and done, the path of least resistance will end up being a merger of Wasps & Worcester that essentially kills the Worcester Warriors brand and sees Wasps permanently playing at Sixways. I’m not saying that’s what should happen or what I want to happen. I just think it’s the easiest rout to take and therefore, will be what happens. Wasps will definitely return to play first, and I suppose it all depends on if they can find support at Sixways. If people turn up and support Wasps in that community, at that ground, I bet they drop the Sevenoaks plan and just remain at Sixways. Under the radar but not totally unrelated, it looks as though London Irish are going to be brought back from the dead by a German consortium and look set to return, likely to the remade Championship. It’s set to have 12 clubs next season with 14 in 2025/26, what do you want to bet those extra 2 are Wasps and London Irish?
3 Go to commentsThe shoulder is a “joint” with multiple bones. You don’t “fracture” a shoulder, you fracture any one or more of the bones that make up a shoulder.
2 Go to commentsOh dear, bones too suspect to continue?
2 Go to commentsBold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
3 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to comments