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Selecting a Wales-23 to harry, frustrate and eventually beat England
Wales stand on the verge of history as they welcome England to Cardiff next weekend, yet despite stretching their winning run to 11 games with victories over France and Italy their Six Nations campaign has been anything but pretty.
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Neither win yielded a bonus-point and the debate over who should line up at half-back for Warren Gatland’s side is yet to be settled.
Eddie Jones’ suggestion that this is the best Welsh team in history can be filed safely under ‘bants’, but it is a group that has grown used to winning.
It is a squad that refused to believe it was beaten when 16-0 down in Paris and won in Rome despite Gatland making 10 changes as he attempted to replicate Rugby World Cup conditions.
England represent a considerable step up from France and Italy, Jones’ side finding some ominous form ahead of Japan 2019. Wales must make a fast start in Cardiff, while matching their visitors’ physicality, line speed and hunger at the breakdown – and ensuring there isn’t space in the back-field for Owen Farrell, Henry Slade and Elliot Daly to exploit.
One selection decision does appear to have been taken out of Gatland’s hands. Leigh Halfpenny was not considered for the Scarlets this weekend as he continues his recovery from a concussion suffered against Australia in November.
Halfpenny
A statement released on Friday suggested he could return in the “imminent future” but it would be a huge gamble to throw him in against England following three months out. Halfpenny’s health is paramount.
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Liam Williams, barring injury, will wear the number 15 jersey at the Principality Stadium with George North to his right and Josh Adams on his left.
An intelligent kicking game was at the heart of England’s opening two Six Nations victories, but bar the first-half horror show against France that trio has looked defensively sound.
Williams’ decision-making can sometimes let him down, and his positioning in the back-field is not as good as Halfpenny’s, but he is a British and Irish Lion who offers the team so much in attack.
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North – who has scored four tries in his last six Tests – and Adams will both keep England honest in defence, while the latter has emerged as an integral cog in Gatland’s back-three plans.
A prolific finisher for Worcester Warriors, Adams is also solid defensively and under the high ball, while he possesses a canny knack of stealing an extra few yards when fielding kicks.
In midfield, Jonathan Davies is a certain starter but Hadleigh Parkes has not been at his best during the Championship so far.
He insisted in his BBC column this week that it was “good to see” Owen Watkin playing so well in his place in Rome, but the young Ospreys centre’s performance will have given Gatland something to think about.
If Wales are to beat England on Saturday then they will need to harry Jones’ side from the first whistle, and make sure they do not have a moment to relax.
Watkin would bring a more energetic presence to the Welsh midfield, is solid in defence, adept at stripping possession in the tackle and is also comfortable covering the back-field as he did on occasion against Italy.
REPORTER: Neil, how did it feel to win that famous game in Wembley in '99?
KATRINA AND THE WAVES: We'll answer that one… pic.twitter.com/yn18jiF1NE
— Welsh Rugby Union ? (@WelshRugbyUnion) February 14, 2019
It would be a gamble to split up the Davies-Parkes partnership but 10-cap Watkin is no rookie anymore and this could be the opportunity he needs.
At half-back, and in keeping with the need to put England on the back foot, Gareth Anscombe should return alongside Gareth Davies.
The going gets tough. #HWFN pic.twitter.com/EYtHcs3wbF
— Welsh Rugby Union ? (@WelshRugbyUnion) February 14, 2019
Talk about Rhys Webb’s availability is irrelevant while he is playing for Toulon and Davies is the best of the rest. He will give Wales the fast start that they need and when he begins to tire, Tomos Williams can come off the bench to exploit any gaps that may open up.
Anscombe did not have his finest game against France, by any means, but showcased what he adds to Wales’ attack with the delicate chip that led to Watkin’s try against Italy.
Rhys Patchell would have come into the conversation had he played more than 40 minutes of rugby following injury and would be named on the bench if Dan Biggar’s knee problem persists.
Biggar was replaced after just 20 minutes as Northampton hammered Sale on Saturday but Saints boss Chris Boyd stressed afterwards that the move was precautionary.
?? Look away Wales fans ?
Dan Biggar limps off a week before Wales host England in the Six Nations.
?????????????? pic.twitter.com/mrH42zAxrW
— Rugby on BT Sport (@btsportrugby) February 16, 2019
The fly-half proved an adept finisher against Australia and South Africa in the autumn and Gatland will want to have his experience, control and goalkicking available from the bench next Saturday.
If Wales are to prevail at the Principality Stadium then whoever is selected to start in the number 10 shirt will need to be a platform on which to perform.
The breakdown is of course, therefore, going to be all important. For much of Gatland’s reign this has been an area that Wales dominated their neighbours almost at will.
But without Sam Warburton, and with Tom Curry an emerging force for England, the hosts will not have it all their own way next weekend.
A back-row of Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty is the strongest available to Gatland at present, but who offers cover on the bench? Aaron Wainwright has taken to Test rugby like the proverbial duck to transparent liquid but for this game I would go with Thomas Young.
Young was sensational on his Six Nations debut against Italy and knows what it takes to get the better of the England back-row having done it for years at Wasps.
In the front-row, there is an argument to be made for the inclusion of Tomas Francis at tighthead to scrummage against his Exeter team-mate Ben Moon, should he be selected for England.
But Samson Lee looked back to somewhere near his best against Italy and it is an all-Scarlets front-row with Rob Evans and Ken Owens alongside him that offers Wales the biggest threat in all areas – scrummaging, physicality and carrying.
For his height, ability to make a nuisance of himself and the credit he earned in the autumn, it would also makes sense to pick six-foot-eight lock Adam Beard to once again partner Alun Wyn Jones in the second row.
It is then a question of who Gatland picks on the bench and Cory Hill’s ability to cover the back-row means he edges Jake Ball.
My Wales team to play England:
L Williams
G North
J Davies
O Watkin
J Adams
G Anscombe
G Davies
Evans
Ken Owens
Samson Lee
Adam Beard
AW Jones (captain)
J Navidi
J Tipuric
RMoriarty.
Replacements: Dee, Smith, Francis, Hill, Young, T. Williams, Biggar, Amos.
Comments on RugbyPass
Exeter were thumped by 38 points. And they only had to hop on a train.
34 Go to commentsI am De Groot.
1 Go to commentsHad hoped you might write an article on this game, Nick. It’s a good one. Things have not gone as smoothly for ROG since beating Leinster last year at the Aviva in the CC final. LAR had the Top 14 Final won till Raymond Rhule missed a simple tackle on the excellent Ntamack, and Toulouse reaped the rewards of just staying in the fight till the death. Then the disruption of the RWC this season. LAR have not handled that well, but they were not alone, and we saw Pau heading the Top 14 table at one stage early season. I would think one of the reasons for the poor showing would have to be that the younger players coming through, and the more mature amongst the group outside the top 25/30, are not as strong as would be hoped for. I note that Romain Sazy retired at the end of last season. He had been with LAR since 2010, and was thus one of their foundation players when they were promoted to Top 14. Records show he ended up with 336 games played with LAR. That is some experience, some rock in the team. He has been replaced for the most part by Ultan Dillane. At 30, Dillane is not young, but given the chances, he may be a fair enough replacement for Sazy. But that won’be for more than a few years. I honestly know little of the pathways into the LAR setup from within France. I did read somewhere a couple of years ago that on the way up to Top 14, the club very successfully picked up players from the academies of other French teams who were not offered places by those teams. These guys were often great signings…can’t find the article right now, so can’t name any….but the Tadgh Beirne type players. So all in all, it will be interesting to see where the replacements for all the older players come from. Only Lleyd’s and Rhule from SA currently, both backs. So maybe a few SA forwards ?? By contrast, Leinster have a pretty clear line of good players coming through in the majority of positions. Props maybe a weak spot ? And they are very fleet footed and shrewd in appointing very good coaches. Or maybe it is also true that very good coaches do very well in the Leinster setup. So, Nick, I would fully concurr that “On the evidence of Saturday’s semi-final between the two clubs, the rebuild in the Bay of Biscay is going to take longer than it is on the east coast of Ireland”
11 Go to commentsWhat was the excuse for the other knockout blowouts then? Does the result not prove the Saints were just so much better? Wise call to put your eggs in one basket when you’ve got 2 comps simultaneously finishing.
34 Go to commentsReally hope Kuruvoli and his partner rock the Canes.
1 Go to commentsI wonder what impact Samson has had on their attack, as the team seems less prone to trundle it up the middle, take the tackle and then trundle it up again. I lost faith in the coach last year as the Rebelss looked like a 2nd/3rd rate South African team. I also disliked Gordon standing back, often ignored as the forward battle went on and on. Maybe its our Aussie way of not getting off our A***’s until the enemy is at the gate.
86 Go to commentsThanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
86 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
7 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
34 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
7 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
7 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
13 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
11 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
11 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
11 Go to comments