1
With the conclusion of the Gallagher Premiership up in the air amid a 5-week coronavirus suspension, questions are now being asked of the fate of Saracens.
ADVERTISEMENT
A complete cancellation of the season is a very real possibility and maybe even a likely outcome, leaving the question of who, if anyone, wins the Premiership and RFU Championship; where they lie in their respective tables; and the implications therein for European qualification.
WATCH: RugbyPass were lucky enough to meet Welsh Rugby legends James Hook and Shane Williams.
Up until last week, the fate of the reigning Premiership Champions was sealed. Having breached the salary cap in at least three seasons, a £5.4 million fine and a total of 105 points deduction had – it seemed – consigned them to the Championship.
Tellingly, while a 105 point docking was to all effects an automatic relegation for Saracens, on a technical level it amounted to a points reduction. For example, if they won all 22 regular season match with a points bonus were left with a total of 110 points and their 105 point deduction was subtracted from that, they’d be left with 5 points.
Last season, as a loose test case, 5 points would have still seen Saracens relegated as Newcastle Falcons managed just 31 points for the season. In academic terms at least, 5 points could be enough to see a side stay up, should another side amass less than 5 points across the same season.
Currently Sarries have won nine out of 13 games and earned six bonus points for a total of 42, which after you deduct 105 points leave them on minus 63. Even if Sarries won all their remaining 9 games with a bonus point in each, they still be left with minus 17, considerably (and obviously) behind the 20 points Leicester Tigers have scraped together.
ADVERTISEMENT
So, barring the unrealistic prospect of a points deduction for a rival Premiership club, Saracens would be relegated.
Could a legal argument be made, in theory at least, that Saracens couldn’t be relegated as the season hadn’t been concluded? Unlikely. In any event, it seems highly unlikely that Saracens would attempt to make such an argument. The lack of an appeal of the second mid-season 70 point deduction proved that the reigning champs were taking their medicine and have no intention of fighting the drop – on that front at least.
Saracens might tackle their relegation from a very different angle.
The massive financial toll that suspending the season has caused could be enough to bankrupt a number of Premiership clubs. Other than Exeter Chiefs, every club in the Premiership is already running at a loss, and the current circumstances are pushing already underpressure sides further into the red.
Should any club potentially go to the wall, RugbyPass understands that the thinking among some within Saracens’ organisation is that they will likely step into the breach and that their inclusion in next season’s Premiership could even be unavoidable.
ADVERTISEMENT
There’s also the matter of who gets promoted to the Premiership. For Saracens to be relegated, there needs to be a Championship side to replace them, and that’s a little less clear cut.
Newcastle Falcons are the obvious and clear candidates. They haven’t dropped a game all season and are just four dropped bonus points off a perfect season to date.
Like the Premiership, the Championship is suspended until at least April 14th. But were England’s second-tier competition to be wrapped early, it’s not much of a stretch to think Ealing Trailfinders and Cornish Pirates might have something to say about Newcastle being promoted without the season running its course.
Sitting, second and third respectively, both teams are still within touching distance of the Championship leaders.
If Newcastle were to be promoted de facto, then a legal challenge is not out of the question.
The Falcons released a statement this weekend, and one line, in particular, was unmistakably nervous. “The Falcons are currently 18 points clear at the top of the Greene King IPA Championship table having won all 15 of their league games this season, the most recent of those being last Friday’s 41-0 victory over Bedford Blues.”
The point was clear – Falcons should be promoted, as things stand.
Comments yesterday by Northampton Saints chief executive Mark Darbon suggest that there is an appetite across the league that the rest of this Premiership season concluded in this season.
“We would love to find a way to bring this season to an appropriate conclusion, and I think that is replicated at the league and certainly other clubs we have spoken to,” Darbon said, suggesting a season dragged out over the summer and thus pushing back the next campaign is not a desired outcome, even if possible. “Our strong preference is to get things finished this year and move on to the next one (season) without damaging that one too.”
Saracens being saved from relegation might seem far fetched, for sure; yet as Newcastle Falcons Director of Rugby Dean Richard says: “This is uncharted territory for all of us.”
Indeed.
Comments on RugbyPass
After their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
3 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
2 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
29 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
2 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
3 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
3 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to comments