Re-building the All Blacks pack to reverse the last result against Ireland
In the 29-20 loss to Ireland in Dublin last November, the All Blacks were put under enormous strain as the Irish boldly chased tries and held the ball for long periods with consistency.
As a result, Ian Foster’s side had few opportunities from turnover ball and were lacklustre with ball in hand when they had it.
It took less than two minutes for the Irish attack to breach the All Blacks’ 22, running it down their throats from a possession that started well inside their own half.
Ireland have become rugby’s most clinical side with possession, running their phase play shapes with precision and accuracy that no other team can. They use well-constructed running lines to create space and rarely push the pass in contact.
As a result, the All Blacks’ passive defence was effectively a doormat and could not slow down the Irish roll once the phase counts got high.
Ireland have realised that they can play at a higher tempo than New Zealand, and as such will likely play that way again.
The All Blacks pack may need to find more turnovers to combat Ireland’s clinical handling. That means forcing them, rather than waiting for them to occur, which are a rarity.
The Leinster-dominant pack is incredibly powerful and skilled, allowing Ireland to benefit from their pre-made chemistry formulated at club level.
Despite much debate over the back row selections, captain Sam Cane, when healthy, is going to start at openside, and Ardie Savea will be at No 8.
Alongside Scott Barrett, Hoskins Sotutu and Tom Christie, Savea has the equal most turnovers of any New Zealand forward in Super Rugby Pacific (10), which includes five at the breakdown.
No player is more effective at turnovers in contact when in-form than Akira Ioane. If the Blues blindside is healthy and back in top form, playing Ioane at No 6 gives the All Blacks a back row contingent that can generate a healthy number of turnovers.
The All Blacks need Ioane to be the disruptive force in defence that rips the ball out, drive ball carriers sideways and create headaches for an attack. Ireland cannot have front foot ball and quick recycle so easily like they did in November.
In his brief international career so far, Ioane has bullied the Wallabies with blockbusting running, but if he can have the similar impact on the other side of the ball against top tier teams, he will be far more valuable.
Despite being one of the form players in the competition, Blues captain Dalton Papalii will be best used off the bench for impact in the last half hour or so, with Cane taking the starting job.
The second row combination of Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock is one of the best of all-time, but the age factor cannot be ignored as their effectiveness around the park started to wane last year. It is just part-and-parcel of being older and slower.
When asked to carry, it is not uncommon to see either of them get dominated these days. Defensively, passive tackle completions give the opposition quick ball. Against Ireland and France, they were not imposing enough.
However, without Whitelock, New Zealand’s lineout struggled in the tests against South Africa, with Retallick and Scott Barrett in the second row.
The calls were bad, even when securing the ball. They did not adjust to the Springboks’ tactics the way the Wallabies did when they outsmarted the South Africans.
It is clear that Whitelock is integral to running the set piece, but, around the park, the 33-year-old does not have as much impact as others.
Scott Barrett has a higher tackle completion and has generated more turnovers than both of them combined this season, but discipline remains an issue.
On form, Blues lock James Tucker has been outstanding, but won’t have a high chance of selection given the early blooding of Josh Lord and Tupou Vaa’i.
If Patrick Tuipulotu is available after his Japanese sabbatical, he would be a valuable asset to bring into the game with Scott Barrett.
With Retallick and Whitelock in the starting side, more is required from the front row to add some sting into the tight five unit.
At hooker, the option that would give the All Blacks the most punch in defence is Blues rake Kurt Eklund, which is a bold call as few are likely to give him a shot.
He has made 112 tackles at a 93 percent completion rate, with just nine misses whilst generating eight turnovers, six of them at the breakdown from 22 ruck contests. He has only given away two penalties from those 22 ruck contests.
On every defensive metric, Eklund has been better than incumbent Codie Taylor and adds turnover-generating potential.
Samisoni Taukei’aho is one of the most damaging runners in the competition, with the third-highest post-contact metre average of any forward. His 0.7 post-contact metres per carry is higher than that of Brumbies No 8 Rob Valetini (0.6m).
Taukei’aho is the perfect player to bring into a game off the bench and provide impact with the carry to form a one-two punch with Eklund, a solid defensive option who is currently bringing a lot more to the table than Taylor, whose uncharacteristic errors made him one of the worst All Blacks performers last year.
Of course, the most important part of playing hooker is throwing, and both Eklund and Taukei’aho would need to operate the lineout at a very high level against the likes of Ireland’s jumpers Iain Henderson, Tadhg Beirne, James Ryan and Caelen Doris.
In the propping stocks, Ofa Tuungafasi, Nepo Laulala, and Angus Ta’avao all add size and heavy hitting to the mix, but Alex Hodgman and Ethan de Groot are perhaps more mobile, industrious loosehead options with Joe Moody out through injury.
Tuungafasi is pretty much guaranteed to start at tighthead prop, but whichever way the All Blacks go with their front row, Ireland will likely have an advantage there with a very strong and mobile unit in Tadgh Furlong, Ronan Kelleher, and Andrew Porter.
If you want New Zealand’s best performing scrum, it is an all-Blues front row you need with Hodgman/Laulala, Eklund and Tuungafasi. They have the highest dominant scrum percentage of all the Kiwi teams at 31 per cent while conceding the fewest scrum penalties.
In the midst of New Zealand’s winter, playing conditions in night tests at Eden Park and Sky Stadium will be cold and dewey, although Dunedin will host the second test on a dry, indoor track which will suit the tempo that Ireland want to play at.
If the All Blacks defence fails to disrupt and steal Irish ball in this series, Ireland will be buoyed. At the very least, there will be tight, absorbing test matches.
The more turnovers the All Blacks can generate, the most chances they have to spark the counter-attacking game that big test matches have been starved of.
Stopping Ireland starts with taking their control of the game away, which they have through holding the ball for long periods of time, and that means selecting a pack that takes the ball away as much as possible.
Comments on RugbyPass
Seeing pictures of Jacques high-fiving it with Irish players breaks my heart. Too soon. I need more time.
1 Go to commentsquins is all over the place. The minute they get the ball they panic. Quins can still win tho just need to win all rucks otherwise just don't bother.
3 Go to commentsGreat win for the male & female kiwi sides. Ireland not far away..
1 Go to commentsWhy is this dude getting so much coverage? Usually knobs like this get cancelled.
2 Go to commentsWow. What was that? A 3 million word meandering article about what exactly?
1 Go to commentsNice piece of writing. And yes the Sharks pulled a rabbit from the hat and were a little lucky with that penalty try that wasn’t given… however the Sharks (with their resources) should be way more consistent and should be putting teams like Claremont away for breakfast. I expect more from them and hope they kick on now.
8 Go to commentsJust what the Sharks needed to get things going in the right direction Defence on the outside really creates havoc for the whole team and needs to be addressed.
8 Go to commentsWell done guys both teams will be ready to play knockout rugby.
1 Go to commentsSurprised that Ramos isn't starting at 15. But what a squad of galacticos!
2 Go to commentsWhy is it a snub? What journalistic garbage is that? Sure the guy is a great player, but there are plenty of loose forwards and not all of them can be Springboks. Also, I know of no-one who doubts Rassie’s judgment. South Africa has a conveyor belt of loose forwards that just keeps producing, so the competition is intense. I certainly wish him well, but there is no entitlement and there is no snub.
17 Go to commentsSkelton may be brought back for the Wallabies so that would be the only reason that may hinder Wilson. Easily the form, most skilful and game IQ of any Oz 8. Valentini’s best and favourite position is 6, but lineouts may be an issue with Skelton, Valentini and Wilson. Will be interesting what Schmidt goes for but for me Wilson should be picked on form. Schmidt rewards work rate, skill and consistency. All that glitters every so often won’t be in contention. Greely is one of those players that has a knack of making the right decision. A coach is going to love him because he knows week in week out he’s going to get the job done. The second try Greely wasn’t the guy who made the initial break it was Flook, Greely was at the bottom of the ruck when Flook was off along the sideline. Greely got up and made the effort to catch up with play but also read the play nicely and hit the pass from Campbell at pace and then held the pass beautifully to Ryan.
6 Go to commentsSpot on Ben. Dead right. Havili looked great at 10. Easily the highest rugby IQ of any NZ player these days. Getting a kick charged down is a result of getting used to adjusting your depth to the line at 10, which he will sort out with time. But other than that it was an outstanding first effort in that position this year. I think the NZ media has misunderstood this directive from Razor. Havili might rank behind B Barrett this year, but Beuden is 33 this month and won't last much longer. DMaC is great but flaky and not really a test match animal (his efforts in Dunedin versus Aus last year for example). If Razor can't have Mounga, DMaC is too unstructured for Razor (and is just too small for test rugby). Havili will end up our first choice first five, and in partnership with Jodie will be excellent. Two triple threat operators in tandem, and big bodies and tough tacklers to boot. Jordoe will be the ABs goal kicker. I am an Aucklander and Blues (and Warriors) fan, but Havili at 10 is going to be sensational in time… he can be the best first five in the world by the end of this year. No question.
6 Go to commentsSharks deserved to be far further back by the last quarter. Their tackling was awful, their set pieces were disappointing, their defensive organization was poor (especially on the Kok side of the D line), they kept making unnecessary errors, and they never looked like cracking the Clermont defense during those first 60m. Masuku kept them in touch, with some help from the Clermont generosity on penalty opportunities. Agree with the writer of this article. It was belligerence, and ability to raise their pressure game just enough, that turned the last quarter into a Bok-style shutout. Clermont have a reputation of not playing the full 80m, and there was a bit of that for sure. But, quite often when the intensity of a team drops off in the last quarter credit is due to the opponent for tiring them out. At 60m, with the Kok try, you thought that just maybe the game was on. At 70m, with the Mapimpi contribution, one felt that Clermont were fading, while facing a team that would maintain the pressure game through the final whistle. Good win in the end, but the Sharks are still playing way below their potential. And with their resources, and a coach that has had enough time to figure things out, they are running out of excuses.
8 Go to commentsGood riddance
1 Go to commentswel the crusaders were beaten by a queensland reds side that hadnt beaten them at home since 1999 and queensland reds partied like it was 1999
6 Go to commentsHard to disagree with the 5 points - with the exception that Wilson should be a squad member but, depending on the other loose forward selections, is not yet a shoo-in. McReight is. Aussie is looking a lot better this year and JS has some selection options. Also, Havili’s tendency to get caught, charged down is also a liability at times but he seemed focused (mostly) and is definitely a consideration for utility back-up. Still feel Reihana is a better prospect at 1st five for Saders.
6 Go to commentsYeah nah, still not sure on Havili tbh. Even though I’m a Crusaders fan through and through I’d be stunned if Razor considers him after seeing some of the stunning talent coming through up North.
6 Go to commentsThink it was a great defensive performance by Northampton. They didn't have stage fright in the first half, the Nienaber defense smothered them. They limited Leinster to 15-3 in the first half. It could have been over by then. A great try from Leinster in the start of the second half looked to have sealed it. But Byrne missed another conversion. Northampton started trying little kicks behind the Leinster wingers. Leinster messed one and Smith brilliantly made the conversion. Leinster decided to tighten the game after Byrne missed a straight forward penalty. A few errors got NH into the 22 and they scored and converted with a few minutes left. Another brilliant steal from Lawes saw NH have a final attack which was turned over by Conan. A classic semi final. World record attendance of 82,300. Leinsters 3 week preparation warranted for this one.
1 Go to commentsJust came back from the game and the atmosphere was amazing. Players stayed afterwards for more than a hour to sign stuff and take photos with fans. Great day out.
8 Go to commentsA great game. The Sharks without Etsebeth are a shadow of the team compared to when he plays. The limitations of Some of the expensive Sharks players are being exposed. Credit to Clermont for some exhilaration play at times.
8 Go to comments