What if the Queensland Reds had signed Kalyn Ponga?
The hottest property in the NRL this year is wunderkind Kalyn Ponga. In his first year with the Knights, the 20-year-old is proving his talent is worth every dollar they paid. However, it wasn’t too long ago he was playing the other rugby code in Brisbane as a schoolboy.
In a hypothetical ‘what if’, where would the Reds be if they secured this once-in-a-generational talent?
It must be prefaced that although he was playing rugby union at high school he came from a League background. His passion was always League and one of his first ambitions as an athlete was to play in the NRL. He was highly sought after by many NRL teams from a very young age and was in the Broncos development system at the time. As a 15-year-old he had multiple professional deals on the table, some as long as four years.
To be in the mix, the Reds would need to make a substantial investment. In January 2014 the Cowboys of the NRL announced the signature of Ponga on a three-year commitment, with the Reds reportedly making an unknown offer.
Six months later in July 2014, the Reds signed another fullback – Karmichael Hunt to a whopping three-year deal on a reported $600,000-$700,000 per year starting in 2015 which was exclusively funded by the Reds, with no support from the ARU.
The Hunt deal, as we now know, didn’t pay off in the slightest. Would they have been better off using that money to secure Ponga? In hindsight, it is easy to say yes, but even at the time that risk looked worth taking – this kid was unnaturally gifted, superhuman-like.
Let’s say the Reds were prepared to use that war chest to compete for Ponga six months earlier and crucially, secure support from the ARU to package a deal. They put together a plan to have Ponga playing Super Rugby full-time by 2017 as an 18-year-old.
In 2015, while still in his last year of school he completes developmental training while being paid a significant amount under contract and potentially plays Sevens late in the year. In 2016 he joins the Australian Sevens team full time to play on the World Rugby Sevens circuit, with ARU support. By 2017 he returns to the Reds and plays Super Rugby full-time.
How much would this gamble cost? $1.2 million over three years, back-ended. They pay $200k in the first year, $400k the next and $600k in the final year. The ARU fronts for half in the final two years and Reds have a total outlay of $700k. The deal significantly trumps the Cowboys one and Ponga commits to rugby.
The Reds also save $1.1 million in cash burnt on Hunt’s deal and use that to keep Will Genia, Liam Gill and Quade Cooper around. Now, in 2015-16 the Reds are still awful but Ponga is shielded from most of this. They sack Richard Graham a year earlier to save the locker room. They find a serviceable head coach with an open mind and preference for attacking rugby. Ponga finishes school and spends a year away shredding the Sevens circuit, becoming an excitement machine. In 2017 he debuts and gives the Reds hope for the future, making an immediate impact with raw freakish ability.
Genia and Cooper use Ponga as their primary attack weapon, and the Reds have a dynamic and explosive attack that takes them to the top of the Australian conference. With the space available off set-piece scrums and counter-attack, Ponga’s ability shines and the Reds become a joy to watch. They might even stop the streak from reaching 40 games. It’s a dream that many Reds fans will have hoped for that never came into fruition.
There is something to take away from this wishful thinking.
This hypothetical pathway for Ponga is from the same playbook the NZRU have used countless times to keep New Zealand’s best talent – the latest being Etene Nanai-Seturo and Caleb Clarke. Others in the past have been Rieko Ioane, Akira Ioane, Julian Savea and Ardie Savea.
Sometimes they are just ready to play professionally straight out of school and the NZR finds a way to make that happen. Often the NRL is also knocking on the door to sign them up at the same time – but the NZR does whatever it takes even if the payoff is a little further down the road. When you hear players like Angus Crichton tell their story of why he turned away from rugby, it often causes head-scratching and confused looks among rugby fans.
Rugby Australia should take a leaf out of NZRU’s playbook when the next generational talent shows up.
In other news:
Comments on RugbyPass
I’d be fascinated to see what other candidates you all might have for the Lions captaincy role. Let me know, below 👍
1 Go to comments“ planning for the next cycle….” Sigh ill-advised language Elton old juice bean. Ppersonally glad you self-eliminated yourself, there were better players in the position around you.
3 Go to commentsRegardless of best in world etc. Lawes was outstanding against Leinster and has been all season. Looked like three try saving turnovers. His turnovers also contributed to NH scores. Immense performance.
2 Go to commentsDickson now considered the top ref in England it appears. Good that these series are getting one NH and one SH ref.
1 Go to commentsI don’t think any coach or selector would ever rely on Blackadder being available for selection. I didn’t think it would be possible but he has easily eclipsed Ennor as they most injured player of all time. IMO a symptom of today’s game where players are required to carry at least 10kg of extra mass from when they first hit the scene in their early 20s. Some players respond well to this, maybe due to genetics allowing them to recover faster, or not having reached their peak natural weight yet, but for others the constant training to maintain their weight eats away at recovery time and they spend most of their careers injured.
4 Go to commentsThanks for the lesson Nick! I presume that targeting gaps is situational because if a ball carrier straightens the line they can't be allowed a gap to run into? It feels like you need depth if you're going to pass it wide and plenty of variety - straight running, kicks just in behind, cross kicks etc. BTW what an incredible bench Toulouse had this week. People complain about Leinster being stacked but they need to be at the very highest level.
16 Go to comments2015 was by far the best team. They have had many good backlines over the years but the 2015 team was one of the few to have an absolute world class forward pack - all of them international quality. 6 ABs, 1 future English player, and one that would have gone on to ABs had he not been forced to retire due to concussion. This current team doesn’t have the same size and experience at lock, but providing they can keep this many talented young players (who have all significantly increased their profile this year) together for another 2 years they could eclipse the 2015 team.
2 Go to commentsAnd I’ve just seen RA has topped up the offer to Paisami and extended it beyond 3 years and he’s signed. Great news
70 Go to commentsInteresting watching Amaua starting to fire. No idea why he was pulled so early against the Reds.
4 Go to commentsNice to read something positive about Vunivalu; it doesn’t happen often. I despair for rugby in Oz. Unless some form of compensation for the teams producing players is devised, there is no obvious way for us to combat poachers coming to grab players in their prime with bigger pay cheques. A return to the SR crowds we were getting in 2010-2014 and a quadrupling of the TV deal would be a start but I don’t see how those things happen. Perhaps the government could be encouraged to deliver tax breaks like in Ireland?
70 Go to commentsI wasn’t aware that the blitz targeted space so, as usual, something learned from reading one of your articles, Nick. Watching the game live I attributed the Saints’ inaccuracy to their own mistakes and nerves. Perhaps some credit to the Leinster D.
16 Go to commentsGotta give it to you Graham, you support your players and team to the hilt. There may be strains of exaggeration laced throughout but gotta love the passionate parochialism.
2 Go to commentsNice one Nick. No doubt Vunivalu’s involvements and work rate are improving this year in attack, but I still think he is too raw on the defensive and backfield part of his game to be considered as a starter. Wales would just kick and run it to his side all night as the brumbies have done to good effect in the past. But, his size/power will keep him in the convo with Mark N leaving and Petaia’s injury record. Hunter definitely enjoying an injury-free run this season and being given the keys by Kiss - I have always been a fan of his. All I’d say is that his triple threat has been evident since 2020/21. I remember him making a grubber for a petaia try after the siren to beat the Brumbies in Canberra after the 80th minute in 2021. Lastly, Jock Campbell, who I know isn’t at the top of your list, I thought had alot of positive involvements in the saders game including both of Tim ryan’s tries and Mcreights
70 Go to commentsAg please, Pieter Stef Du Toit has played circles around this clown.
2 Go to commentsJust celebrating the Bok’s 1648th consecutive day as RWC champions. They are also the Qatar Airways Cup winners, which I know BennieBoy cares about a lot.
2 Go to commentsGood to here positive stories towards Aus Rugby. Although that might be the case, and highers up are right about Jordie, I wouldn’t stress trying to retain him. What I have seen of him in recent times is that he’s not using that something special. I feel there a better ‘something special’ options coming through that they won’t have to compete with league for, hell even in Kerevi and Paisami (isn’t it great to finally see his ability getting recognized, probably taking this article in isolation too much here).
70 Go to commentsgreat article! I wonder whether we will we see Ireland adopt the Nienaber blitz? All the teams who have tried it so far (SA included) have gone through significant teething problems in the first season; Ireland could possibly be in the unique position of being able to switch to a hard blitz in season 2 of a world cup cycle and already have so many players used to the system that it can be implemented seamlessly.
16 Go to commentsThey probably left another 20 on the field to be fair. Also - the officiating was… ordinary.
1 Go to commentsblackadder isnt a key player at all you cant say hes been the best player or a key all black when hes injured every week
4 Go to commentsThat loss to the Blues still stings! The Reds have fallen short in 4 of the 6 games decided by 7 points or fewer. Are they not fit enough to close out the close games or are there tactical issues when games go down to the wire? The pleasing thing is no Australian side can better the Reds record of 3 wins from 5 against Kiwi sides but the Brumbies can match it. Les Kiss has instilled a belief in the Reds that they can match it with all the New Zealand sides.
70 Go to comments