There's a reason Exeter finished 30 points ahead of Northampton - Andy Goode
Only five teams have ever won away in a Premiership semi-final in 29 attempts and it is hard to make the case for a sixth but I just have a feeling Gloucester could do something special.
I was part of the first team to win on the road in the semi-finals with Leicester back in 2008 when we won at Kingsholm and only four teams have managed to do it in the decade since, which tells you everything about the size of the task facing Gloucester and Northampton.
We were lucky to be in the play-offs that year and if they see it as a free shot, you just never know. If either of the away sides are going to pull off an upset, I reckon Gloucester have got more chance of doing it at Saracens.
That will sound strange to some when Northampton were level at half-time at Sandy Park last week and the Cherry and Whites have never won at Allianz Park but I just think there’s a glimmer of hope for Gloucester.
I don’t think there’ll be a hangover from the Champions Cup final a couple of weeks ago but you never know and then there is the front row, which could be an area of weakness.
Richard Barrington and Vincent Koch are good players but if they go down early like Titi Lamositele and Mako Vunipola did in the European final, Ralph Adams-Hale is a youngster with only a handful of Premiership appearances to his name and Christian Judge was playing in the Championship earlier this season.
Gloucester have Val Rapava Ruskin, who could make a massive impact, and Ruan Dreyer waiting in reserve and any of their four props will fancy their chances if they see those two coming on but it isn’t an area that you’d normally expect them to be dominant in really.
If they are to win, the back row of Ruan Ackermann, Jaco Kriel and Ben Morgan are going to have to get the better of their opposite numbers and the Premiership Player of the Season Danny Cipriani is going to have to capitalise on almost every chance they get.
He’s a master of creating little edge attacks and getting his team going from slow ball to quick ball. He’ll see things that others won’t but Gloucester will have to be clinical. They might get three openings and will have to take at least two of them.
They won’t be as loose as they have been at times this season and will have been working on their kicking game specifically for this game, so it might be a case of kicking their way up the field to 30 metres from the opposition try-line and then knowing when to press the gamble button.
Ollie Thorley will be a big loss for them, though, as he’s been their x-factor player this season and is someone who Saracens might have been a bit frightened of with the extra pace that he offers.
Both Gloucester and Northampton look like they’ve picked teams to combat the power games of their hosts, though, with six forwards and just two backs named by both among the replacements.
I’ve never been a fan of the six, two split on the bench and they could have issues if a key back goes down early but it’s clear that they think the extra forward will be useful with the amount of pressure they’re going to have to withstand and they know they’ll have to take the top two on physically if they have any chance of getting the better of them.
At Sandy Park the match-up of the young Joe Simmonds, who’s earned his place at the business end of the season just like he did a year ago, against the vast experience of Dan Biggar will be a fascinating one but I don’t think it’ll be the defining one.
Saints do have the ability to create something out of nothing and turn defence into attack in an instant with Cobus Reinach and Taqele Naiyaravoro, in particular, so you have to give them a shot but they’re going to need much more of an attacking focus throughout.
There’s a reason Chiefs finished streets ahead of them in the regular season and I just can’t see Saints winning unfortunately.
Exeter finished 30 points ahead of Northampton, which is the biggest gap between first and fourth in Premiership history, and the 10-point difference between second-placed Saracens and third-placed Gloucester is the biggest for 14 years as well.
A romantic always wants to see a brilliant semi-final that goes all the way to the wire and potentially a victory for the underdog but it’s right that the reward for finishing in the top two is a home semi-final and that does make thigs doubly difficult for the teams in third and fourth.
Chiefs and Sarries have been head and shoulders above everyone else again and the gap between them and the rest does seem to have grown this season.
History tells you there’s a 17 per cent chance of an away team winning their Premiership semi-final and, while I think Gloucester are in with a shout, it’s impossible to back against another Exeter v Saracens finale.
Comments on RugbyPass
Ardie’s preferred position 7? Where do they get these writers from? I've no idea where he's playing in Japan, but the previous two seasons he wore the 7 jersey exactly twice.
17 Go to commentsNot good to hear Ulster described as “financially troubled”. Did not think it was getting to that level. I would hope the Irish system of spreading players of talent away from Leinster would kick in now. Better to have a Leinster fringe player with Ulster or Connacht, then getting only a few games a season in Dublin. 10, for example, would seem to be a case for spreading the talent. I would not be at all adverse to a SA man coming in as head coach/DR. Ludeke is worth trying. Certainly got a long and impressive coaching career at this level…..149 games in SR, then Japan, 30 years experience. And Ulster’s ledger of successful SA coaches and players is on the positive side. Is talk of Ruan Pienaar interested in coming back as a coach…..could be a good combination with Ludeke. And Pienaar and family would have no settling in to do, one would judge. He loved life in Ulster when there, by all reports.
1 Go to commentsSome thoughts to consider here, Sam. Thanks
2 Go to commentsI think he is right, SBW is respected in RSA. The guy who never stood up is a worm. Sseems lots of NZ SBW hate, you do the crime do the time.
11 Go to commentsAfter missing the curfew, the player was simply too “Shagged” to stand up.
11 Go to commentsVernier is probably the best 12 in the world though she has some English competition these days . I am nervous for England because it is unpredictable France and who knows which team will turn up, but they have not yet shown anything that should worry England, Saturday could be a different day. I would be more confident against the BFs.
1 Go to commentsWhat a difference Rodda and Carter made. Rodda has been out for ages but he is really the only world class lock in Australian rugby. Him, Carter and Beale made a huge difference on the weekend. If only they had a few decent props they’d be a much more dangerous team. Hamish Stewart was excellent last week as well. His carrying has improved significantly and has to be next in line after Paisami at 12 for the Wallabies. He’ll benefit hugely with Beale at fullback, there’s just no better communicator in Australian rugby than him and his experience will make a huge difference for the Force. No one sees space like Beale and he’s still sharp. I can see Force making a late charge into the top 8 if they can get some consistency.
2 Go to commentsRodda will be a walk up starter at lock. Frost if you analyse his dominance has little impact and he’s a long way from being physical enough, especially when you compare to Rodda and the work he does. He was quite poor at the World Cup in his lack of physicality. Between Rodda and Skelton we would have locks who can dominate the breakdown and in contact. Frost is maybe next but Schmidt might go for a more physical lock who does their core work better like Ryan or LSL. Swain is no chance unless there’s a load of injuries. Pollard hasn’t got the scrum ability yet to be considered. Nasser dominated him when they went toe to toe and really showed him up. Picking Skelton effects who can play 6 and 8. Ideally Valetini would play 6 as that’s his best position and Wilson at 8 but that’s not ideal for lineout success. Cale isn’t physical enough yet in contact and defence but is the best backrow lineout jumper followed by Wright, Hanigan and Swinton so unfortunately Valetini probably will start at 8 with Wright or Hanigan at 6. Wilson on the bench, he’s got too much quality not to be in the squad. Paisami is leading the way at 12 but Hamish Stewart is playing extremely well also and his ball carrying has improved significantly. Beale is also another option based on the weekend. Beale is class but he’s also the best communicator of any Australian backline player and that can’t be underestimated, he’ll be in the mix.
8 Go to commentsWhy do people keep on picking Ardie at 7 when he's a ball in hand 8? A modern 7 is the lead tackler and ruck clearer which isn't his strength.
14 Go to commentsSly dig there at Ireland’s propensity to back a non-Irish coach. Must really want it. I’m not sure I like ROG very much. Comes off as unpleasant. But he’d gain my respect if he took a number 7 ranked team and turned them into WC winners. Not even back-to-back. Argentina? Scotland? Or how about Wales? France would be too easy, no?
1 Go to commentsA bit of sensationalism, but surprised by the comments about SBW. I’ve always thought of him as a pretty authentic person. There is nothing worse than working with a colleague you’ve seen straight through.
11 Go to comments100% agree with your comment about Touch. I’ve been playing it competitively since Covid. It’s on a Wednesday night after work. It means the weekend is free for time with my family.
2 Go to commentsRodda back is massively important for the Wallabies. Kaitu at hooker important too coz he was very good a few years ago.
2 Go to commentsThe pink cabous might be eligible this year and the Boks don’t need him
8 Go to commentsNasser and kaitu are options for hooker. Especially Nasser. You forgot Rodda who touch wood will be fit at test time and if fit he’s number one. Great partner for the great Skelton and Oz best lineout caller. Third best lock is LSL whom I’d be inclined to sub on for Skelton around 60 minutes. Probably start valetini at 8 because I like a big body back there. Cale should play 6 at the brumbies. For Wallabies definitely cale in the squad but as an apprentice. Dunno who starts at 6 seru wright Swinton hanigan with Will Harris and Harry Wilson not far away. Seru and Swinton my front runners but Swinton is going. Still if we don’t cap seru then Fiji must coz they need his lineout skills and easily compensate for his lack of weight
8 Go to commentsYeah but who was it?
11 Go to commentsThink you might have written this just before the Brumbies got thrashed last weekend
8 Go to commentsI really do believe that Billy Proctor should be selected at least in the larger squad but also it would be my choice at 13, much more a center than Ioane who can still play at wing. Roigard if fit should play, otherwise it should be Perenara or Christie. Also, Iose could deserve a spot at blindside. Of course, being a Canes supporter I’m biased but I really believe that at least Billy P is deserving a chance and being Holland one of the Selectors, I’m having a little hope he could grab it.
14 Go to commentsI would not play Swinton I’d pick Wright or Hanigan. The rest are decent starters, but can’t agree on any subs except Tupou. My take on the subs: Gibbon, Ueslese, Tupou, LSL, Wilson, White, Will Harrison, and Petaia.
8 Go to commentsSBW the biggest moron to pull on a black jersey a park footy player at best
11 Go to comments