Pre-match analysis - Italy vs Wales
Wales travel to Rome to face Italy boasting a very different look to the team that walked out at the Stade de France on the opening night of the 2019 Six Nations.
Coach Warren Gatland has rung the changes – 10 personnel and one positional – but not because of his side’s woeful first-half showing in Paris.
Instead of returning to Cardiff following their 24-19 comeback win over France, Wales have spent the week training on the Cote d’Azur. Gatland wanted to replicate the kind of turnaround the squad will face at the Rugby World Cup in September and has therefore shuffled his pack, providing opportunities for fringe players to book their flights to Japan.
TEAM NEWS 🏴 @JonFoxDavies will lead Wales for the first time against @Federugby this Saturday. #ITAvWAL
🔴 Capteiniaeth am y tro gyntaf i'r gŵr o'r gorllewin ar gap rhif 70 am y gêm @SixNationsRugby.#HWFN #ForTheJersey pic.twitter.com/h3aa0Qyb2A
— Welsh Rugby Union 🏴 (@WelshRugbyUnion) February 7, 2019
Following a comprehensive defeat to Scotland in Edinburgh in week one, Italy will want to put on a show in front of their home fans. Can they cause an upset and secure a first win over Wales since Gatland took charge 11 years ago?
Coaches
Italy coach Conor O’Shea insisted in the wake of defeat at Murrayfield last weekend that his side could find the level required to beat Wales on Saturday. “[It is] a fight not many people think we can win,” he said, “but we will.”
O’Shea was forced to field questions about his future at last month’s Six Nations launch following newspaper reports in France that the Italian Rugby Federation (FIR) were sounding out potential successors to the Irishman.
In his two-and-half years in charge, South Africa, Georgia, Fiji and Japan have all been beaten but victories have been few and far between. In two matches against Wales under O’Shea, Italy have lost both by an aggregate score of 71-21.
It is a measure of how confident his opposite number feels heading into the match that he has made so many changes to the team that came from behind to beat France in Paris.
🔵 #Italrugby: annunciati i titolari in campo sabato all’Olimpico per #ITAvWAL, secondo appuntamento del @SixNationsRugby 2019 ➡ https://t.co/w5dGkNxx9q#insieme #rugbypassioneitaliana @SeiNazioniRugby pic.twitter.com/XUrfBBCw7l
— Italrugby (@Federugby) February 7, 2019
Of course, Gatland’s decision to leave Alun Wyn Jones, Ross Moriarty and Gareth Davies on the bench – and Ken Owens, Justin Tipuric and George North in the stands – highlights the disparity in resources available to each coach.
Turning the Azzurri into a competitive force in the Six Nations is something that will take years. O’Shea is all too aware of that, but he will hope his players can start in Rome on Saturday where they left off at Murrayfield.
The players
Leonardo Ghiraldini (69) vs Elliot Dee (67)
With Ken Owens given a week off following his exertions in Paris, Dee has an opportunity to rubber-stamp his standing as Wales’ number two hooker. Opposite him on Saturday is Ghiraldini, a centurion who will embody the hosts’ physical approach. According to the RPI, Dee has a greater influence on games (85-69) and is a better scrummager (69-65) while providing a jackal threat (70-29) that Ghiraldini, 10 years his senior, does not.
Sergio Parisse (68) vs Josh Navidi (79)
Gatland has decided to take a look at Navidi at number eight in Rome, even though the Wales back row is more comfortable on the side of the scrum than at the base of it. It’s a position the Cardiff player has filled in the past and his versatility could yet prove vital at the World Cup. Navidi, though, does not bring the physicality of Moriarty, Taulupe Faletau or Seb Davies to the role and that is something Parisse and Italy will hope to exploit. Although now 35, Parisse remains a carrying threat and a very tough opponent for a non-specialist number eight.
Tommaso Allan (60) vs Dan Biggar (79)
It should be something of a clash of styles at 10 in the Stadio Olimpico. Allan has matured since he was first handed the keys to the Azzurri attack as a 20-year-old, but question marks remain at Test level – especially concerning his goal kicking. No such worries surround Biggar, who in his new role as a ‘finisher’ for Wales, has come off the bench to kick his country to victory over Australia, South Africa and France in recent months. Selected to start on Saturday he should be relied upon to keep Wales playing in the right areas.
Michele Campagnaro (61) vs Jonathan Davies (76)
It’s a big weekend for Scarlets centre Davies, who takes the captaincy on his 70th Wales appearance. Injuries ahead of this season have impacted on Davies’ RPI rating but according to the rankings he has more of an impact on games than Campagnaro, with his influence rating of 75 four more than his opposite number. Campagnaro’s ability to play on the wing perhaps accounts for his attack score of 82, which is 11 more than Davies. At his best the Welshman is one of the best centres in the world, and he could well make a mockery of his ranking on Saturday.
Key battlegrounds
The breakdown is such a key facet of Wales’ game and despite all the changes, Gatland has once again picked a team that will be confident of dominating that area.
Navidi, Aaron Wainwright and Thomas Young (combined jackal RPI – 244) are all adept over the ball In a mobile back row and will keep Parisse, Sebastian Negri and Braam Steyn incredibly busy.
Negri made a mammoth 18 tackles at Murrayfield last weekend, and if Italy are going to get anything out of this contest then he will need to do similar again.
There will be no let-up when the Azzurri have the ball, though, with the Welsh back row having a combined tackle turnover RPI of 255.
Should Wales secure front-foot ball then they will hope Biggar can deliver a composed performance at 10. His half-back partner in Rome will be Aled Davies, who in the eyes of the RPI, is more than a safe pair of hands.
He has an influence rank of 83, pass completion of 87 and 84 for territorial kick meters. Parisse and co must hound and harass Davies and Biggar if Wales are to be upset.
Conclusion
Wales were rocked during the first-half in Paris last Friday, but it says a lot about the resolve the squad possesses that they were able to rebound from such an abject 40-minute display. They have been here before and that performance will have been parked during the warm-weather training week in Nice.
Gatland has rung the changes for Rome but there are no worries about those players coming in, such is the strength of the group. Instead a chance to put a hand up for World Cup selection should galvanise those who aren’t regulars. If it doesn’t then Jones, Moriarty, Davies, Gareth Anscombe and Hallam Amos are all ready and waiting on the bench.
Italy will want to pick up where they left off in Edinburgh but that three-try salvo came when their hosts were down to 14 men and had a bonus-point already tucked safely into their back pocket.
Expect the Azzurri to make life difficult for Wales in the first half, but the visitors will back their superior fitness and skill set to show as the match wears on.
Verdict: Wales to win with a bonus point
Comments on RugbyPass
100% agree with your comment about Touch. I’ve been playing it competitively since Covid. It’s on a Wednesday night after work. It means the weekend is free for time with my family.
1 Go to commentsRodda back is massively important for the Wallabies. Kaitu at hooker important too coz he was very good a few years ago.
1 Go to commentsThe pink cabous might be eligible this year and the Boks don’t need him
7 Go to commentsNasser and kaitu are options for hooker. Especially Nasser. You forgot Rodda who touch wood will be fit at test time and if fit he’s number one. Great partner for the great Skelton and Oz best lineout caller. Third best lock is LSL whom I’d be inclined to sub on for Skelton around 60 minutes. Probably start valetini at 8 because I like a big body back there. Cale should play 6 at the brumbies. For Wallabies definitely cale in the squad but as an apprentice. Dunno who starts at 6 seru wright Swinton hanigan with Will Harris and Harry Wilson not far away. Seru and Swinton my front runners but Swinton is going. Still if we don’t cap seru then Fiji must coz they need his lineout skills and easily compensate for his lack of weight
7 Go to commentsYeah but who was it?
8 Go to commentsThink you might have written this just before the Brumbies got thrashed last weekend
7 Go to commentsI really do believe that Billy Proctor should be selected at least in the larger squad but also it would be my choice at 13, much more a center than Ioane who can still play at wing. Roigard if fit should play, otherwise it should be Perenara or Christie. Also, Iose could deserve a spot at blindside. Of course, being a Canes supporter I’m biased but I really believe that at least Billy P is deserving a chance and being Holland one of the Selectors, I’m having a little hope he could grab it.
12 Go to commentsI would not play Swinton I’d pick Wright or Hanigan. The rest are decent starters, but can’t agree on any subs except Tupou. My take on the subs: Gibbon, Ueslese, Tupou, LSL, Wilson, White, Will Harrison, and Petaia.
7 Go to commentsSBW the biggest moron to pull on a black jersey a park footy player at best
8 Go to commentsSBW is fast becoming a laughing stock, his misplaced comments & lack of insight Is actually pretty sad.
8 Go to commentsJust well you guys are couch 🛋 potatoes selector's, picking a team of greenhorns to play England! “What are you people smoking?” The halfbacks will be Christie, Fakatava, Perenara Props; Newell, Bower, Lomax, Tunga'fasi, Hookers; Asosa Amua when fit, Taylor, Samisoni,
12 Go to commentsQuite frankly, all this is a bit pathetic. The first time Wales get the Wooden Spoon in 21 years and everyone is on the bandwagon for a ‘play-off’ game. Wales have no obligation to Georgia and no obligation to the rest of the Six Nations to play such a game. If they want Georgia in so badly then they need to include South Africa into a Northern Hemisphere competition with 2 leagues of 4 teams with the top 2 competing for the Championship. Sadly, this will end Triple Crowns and Grand Slams forever. Is this really what you want?
4 Go to commentsI think Finau to start Blackadder to come on. Poss Prokter instead of Ioane, haven't seen much from Reiko so far this year.
12 Go to commentsJoe will have had a good chat with Dave Rennie, a smart move to begin with while it’s doubtful Fast Eddie will be consulted? Plenty of Aus players hitting top form so they should go OK.
7 Go to commentsMmm. Not sure I like this article or see it as necessary.
8 Go to commentsBlackadder but no Finau! 😀 It’s Razor so you are probably right, plus Taylor at 2…
12 Go to commentsThe strongest possible AB side would actually include Aaron Smith, Bodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Leicester Fainga'anuku, Shannon Frizzel.. don’t get me started on the rest of the injury hit brigade that got flung on the heap so left. Many a whole not getting filled as of yet.
12 Go to commentsI don’t think anyone knows what Schmidt will do, one thing is certain it ain’t gonna be all the picks we on the keyboard will think. My impression of him is that he will be looking at who can step up and what is the best combination. He will ignore individuals as he looks for guys who can build a powerful team and not just guys who can make a flashy run or ignore the winger as they want to score themselves.
7 Go to commentsSome dumb selections there. Not Porecki Not Donaldson Not Gordon Not Lonegran - both Not Nic White - Fines instead Not Liam Wright Not Paisami Definitely not Vunivalu Other than that not bad.
7 Go to commentsI've never been convinced that Patty T is a test match all black. Otherwise I probably agree it's the best side available to beat the poms. Caveat that Codie Taylor is yet to be seen and could very likely warrant selection by June. I hope that Razor brings the young loosies, half backs and locks into the training squad and develops/ selects the best
12 Go to comments