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Pre-match analysis - France vs Wales
It’s almost time for the talking to stop, the predictions to be filed away and the actual rugby to take centre stage. And there is no better place to kick off the 2019 Six Nations than the Stade de France under Friday night lights.
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Hosts France will want to lay down a marker at the beginning of a Rugby World Cup year and the scalp of Wales, on a nine-match winning run, would be a considerable cockerel feather in their collective cap. Their visitors will be determined to produce something special in Warren Gatland’s final Championship as coach and an away win in Paris would be a set them up for a Grand Slam challenge.
Coach vs Coach
Going into this year’s Championship it is fair to say that the jury is out for France and their coach Jacques Brunel. The former Italy boss has been in charge for just over a year but is yet to find a winning formula or consistent selection.
He may well have cursed the Six Nations fixture computer as he attempts to find one, too. In seven Tests coaching Italy and France against Wales, Brunel has masterminded a grand total of zero wins – although Les Bleus lost by a solitary point in Cardiff last season.
By contrast Warren Gatland appears to have rediscovered his midas touch going into his final year as Wales boss. Wales are currently on a nine-match winning run and have won seven of their 12 encounters with Les Bleus since their Kiwi coach took charge 11 years ago.
It quite possibly should have been eight as following 21 minutes of time added in Paris two years ago, Wales were a turnover away from securing a third successive victory at the Stade de France.
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Gatland will be confident of making it three out of four on Friday night.
Player vs Player
The headline news of France’s team announcement was the sheer size of the forward pack selected by Brunel. To put it bluntly, Les Bleus have opted for brute force in Paris.
In total the French forwards weigh in at a combined 962kg and their heft is best summed up by the fact that 6-foot-2 back-row Wenceslas Lauret is the lightest member of the ample eight, weighing in at 103kg – or over 16 stone.
Wales’ front-row will come under particular scrutiny as the diminutive captain and hooker Guilhem Guirado lines up between Jefferson Poirot and Uini Atonio. France will look to grind their visitors into submission – as they did in the 99th minute two years ago – and Rob Evans , back in the side in place of the injured Nicky Smith, and Tomas Francis are sure to be busy. According to the RPI, France have the collective edge here – 238 to 231.
Brunel will hope his forwards can also exploit any rustiness Adam Beard and Ross Moriarty may feel following concussion but the Wales back-row is the most experienced available to Gatland.
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Behind their brutish scrum, Les Bleus have gone for finesse. Romain Ntamack has been preferred to Mathieu Bastareaud, suggesting that Les Bleus will look to move the Welsh centre axis of Hadleigh Parkes and Jonathan Davies around the park.
Meanwhile, Two club partnerships go head-to-head at half-back as Morgan Parra and Camille Lopez look to use their experience against Tomos Williams (), making his Six Nations debut, and Gareth Anscombe on only his second Championship start at fly-half. But Wales have the upper hand here according to the RPI, 163 to 157.
Gatland has picked the strongest back division he has available, but what might swing the contest in Wales’ favour is the quality of replacements at his disposal. France will not enjoy watching Samson Lee, Aaron Wainwright, Davies and Dan Biggar (with a combined RPI of 283) rise from the bench in the final quarter.
Key Battlegrounds
Not even the most ardent member of the front-row union would have enjoyed watching 19 minutes of increasingly arduous scrummaging that signalled the end of the last meeting between these two sides in Paris. It is not often that a player can be sent to the sin bin with time up and return to the field with his side still frantically, farcically defending their line.
Editors from South Wales to northern France will hope things can be sorted out in regulation time with deadlines pressing on Friday night, but you can be sure the scrum will play as integral a role again.
An ankle injury to Nicky Smith has opened the door to Evans once again but his inclusion in no way weakens the Welsh front-row. It is not so long ago that the loosehead prop was one of the most important names on Gatland’s team sheet and he has been in fine, niggly form for the Scarlets.
French replacement prop Demba Bamba has a bright future in the game but in the here and now Wales will be confident they have the strength to cope with France’s hulks. If Evans and Francis can see off Jefferson Poirot and Uini Atonio then Wyn Jones and Samson Lee (combined RPI – 149) can be sure to finish the job.
At the base of the scrum Wales will also back themselves to win the battle of the breakdown as Josh Navidi and Justin Tipuric work in tandem with Ross Moriarty. That trio can also do some damage in open play, too.
Conclusion
This is a new-look France line-up, particularly in the backs, and it is almost impossible to predict how the players will gel before they step onto the Stade de France pitch.
Ntamack and Damian Penaud are exciting additions from last year’s Championship and it is mouthwatering to think what they might be capable of if Lopez gets front foot ball and they can link with Wesley Fofana. But that is a big if.
Wales are not two Test victories shy of their longest winning run for no reason and while Les Bleus are a team with potential, Gatland has selected a XV for the here and now. Wales ooze calm, authoritative quality throughout the spine of their team, from hooker Ken Owens – who will become his country’s most-capped No. 2 – to captain Alun Wyn Jones, Tipuric in the back-row and through Jonathan Davies, George North and Liam Williams in the backs.
Gatland’s side have more than enough about them to soak up the physicality of the French pack and put the pressure on the hosts. Should they do that then victory will be theirs for the taking.
Comments on RugbyPass
Leinster are going to win the world cup.
13 Go to commentsSuper Rugby desperately needs to lose at least 2, but up to 4 teams. Rebels quietly going bankrupt would have made that a bit easier. Teams like the Rebels and Force serve only to weaken Australian Rugby and Super Rugby more widely. In 13 years in the comp the Rebels are yet to win more games than they lose in a season, have never finished in the top half of the competition, and have come dead last a number of times. The Western Force, barring a brief stint of mediocrity under John Mitchell from 2007-2009 have been even worse. Sadly it’s hard to see a future for Moana Pasifika in Super Rugby. Likewise I think the writing is on the wall for the Highlanders, it’s hard to see how NZ rugby can continue to support 5 SR teams, and population distribution suggests one team in the south island would make the most sense.
42 Go to commentsNice that Connor Evans is happy to stay on here, that JD Schikerling is returning and Steven Kitshoff. Dobbo is careful to bring back just anybody but having a new financial lease of life, it has made the Stormers a more attractive club. On top of being good quality, having the financial backing helps a lot
1 Go to commentsEngland-qualified too, I believe.
1 Go to commentsThis might turn out to be emblematic of a real issue in Irish rugby. Ireland have one of the best -if not the best - senior sides in the world, and one of the best under 20s sides as well, but don’t seem to be giving graduating under20s players many opportunities to break through into URC starting lineups. There is a risk that a lot of the junior talent they are developing will either be wasted, or lost to other nations.
1 Go to commentsYou ask good questions, Nick. The group who have put together the proposal to play out of Tarneit and participate in the growing of the ground’s capacity are not a bunch of white knights who have been dragged in post-crisis; they were around whilst the Rebels accummulated $23m in debt. Why do we come up with ideas that might make the franchise affordable after it’s broke and not when it might have prevented the trainwreck this offseason was? As for Gordon/Kellaway v Lolesio/Wright, they are both good options. I think the former are better rugby players but the goal kicking of Noah may be decisive when Schmiddy makes his choices. I know Harry Jones has the hots for Edmed but I think it’s one of his few poor choices and he and Jorgensen aren’t close to the other pairs. By coincidence, the wife and I went into town over the weekend to watch Brian Cox and Patricia Clarkson in Long Day’s Journey into Night. Beautifully acted but it was 3.5 hours in the chair and very hard work. Like the Rebels, there were only small bursts of joy to go with a lot of bad news and a depressing story line. In the end, I was hoping it would end and I could give my sore butt a break. Again, familiar.
42 Go to commentsGood decision, very good player but not international quality. But so was Jamison Gibson Park …..
3 Go to commentsLoose forwards always look good going forward and winning. It’s the same loose forwards for the Crusaders and the Canes this year as last year. Too much of the shiny new things getting noticed here while older consistent ones getting bagged. It’s early days. Calm the farm.
6 Go to commentsThanks Nick, and on the money. We tend to be apathetic until something REALLY BAD happens, then we aren't! At least this applies to the Reb players and coach, if not the spectators. They seem to be getting very quick ball at times. Have they altered something, or is it just all of the skills coming together at the right time? It seems almost the opposite of the Reds, who started the season with quick ball, but haven't been showing that in the last 3 losing games. Is it attitude (McDermott hasn't looked “right” to me for 3 weeks), or something else?
42 Go to commentsGood summary. As said, Sevu Reece has been electrifying for the Crusaders. Great try and he has been everywhere. Amazing he is now equal with Caleb Ralph , club record of 52 tries for the Crusaders. That record beckons. Good to see Dallas McLeod getting regular starts at last. A big few weeks are ahead.
6 Go to commentsGood article/interview.As was said Christian Lio-Willie was barnstorming when he came on for the Crusaders. What happened at the end, self-explanatory.Captain fantastic Scott Barrett is due back soon as well, once they are back from Aussie. Great to see Ethan Blackadder back last week.
1 Go to commentsYou must have been watching one team, Andrew - and even then you missed the brightest star in the Chiefs pack - Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 2 turnovers, genuine line-out presence and grunt around the field, and the soft hands of a back.
6 Go to commentsHaha what a crock of sh!t these headlines are. Moorby’s best year was that first. Still doesn’t seem to have the same game about him as when he was fresh but has bounced back well this season to be playing consistent tight accurate footy
3 Go to commentsIt’s even dumber than Bernard Foley not kicking the penalty to touch in the Melbourne Bledisloe in 2022.
3 Go to commentsYes, they are traveling well but it’s early days. The Chiefs were in front with 20 to go while they snatched a last minute win v the Reds. Keep calm.
1 Go to commentsThe failure of the Irish system / rugby playing style to produce their own backs has them looking elsewhere for innovation and flair - not that Jordie has much flair. He’s a converted fullback. The Canes have plenty of other younger options.
13 Go to comments1.Watch Wallace Sititi be the wild card AB. A genuine full time no 8 2. Luke J like Sotutu has not delivered. 3. Chiefs have all the right cattle but badly miss the leadership of Webber. LJ is about as unconvincing as Sam Cane when under the pump. They had the winning of that game in the second half then fell apart.
6 Go to commentsYes the Rebels are showing signs of life because they are literally playing for their live -lihoods and thanks to their Australian attack coach. However they are still playing an essentially dull boring south african style for the rest of the time. And Geoff Parling must be the most useless lineout coach ever. Worse than Steve Hansen even. Interestingly we are starting to see more cheap shots and attempts to get away with cheating by Australian players, now they are being influenced by Joe Schmidt. It was exactly the same when Rennie started out as Wallaby coach and thru his tenure. Trying to teach Australians to play like kiwis doesn’t work, as the last 20 years has conclusively demonstrated. Especially when we are not as good at it as kiwis. Which of course is the whole idea …..
42 Go to commentsGreat signing, not sure where he’ll fit in though. As for him ‘playing alongside RG Snyman, that’s highly debatable given the likelyhood that the latter will spend most of the season on sick leave.
13 Go to commentsWowee!
13 Go to comments