Peter Bills: How The Lions Can Beat The All Blacks
The Autumn Internationals have gone a long way to raising hopes of a competitive 2017 Lions tour of New Zealand, writes Peter Bills, but one part of the Northern Hemisphere game in particular still needs a lot of work.
Two things have emerged with crystal clarity from a rumbustious last few weeks of rugby in the Northern Hemisphere.
One is that Ireland and England have moved significantly ahead of their rivals in this part of the world. England’s renaissance under coach Eddie Jones has been apparent for some time. They are currently on an 11-match winning run and producing on a consistent basis the type of power allied to pace rugby that they must possess to test the best defences in the world game.
But the trouble Ireland gave the world champion New Zealanders over two Test matches, beating them in Chicago and narrowly losing in Dublin last Saturday, was also highly impressive and propitious for the 2017 British & Irish Lions who will tour New Zealand.
If both countries maintain their solid progress then that Lions Test squad should be dominated by Englishmen and Irishmen. That could make the Lions a dangerous unit, even in a country where they have only ever won once in more than a century of Lions Test series.
The composition of that touring squad will doubtless be influenced by events at Lansdowne Road Dublin on Saturday 18 March next year. On that day, the final round of matches in the 2017 Six Nations Championship will be played. The final game, with a 5pm kick-off, will feature Ireland v England. Not only a 6 Nations Championship title could well be on the line but also the make-up of the Lions’ squad.
Given the physicality both countries have shown in tough matches this year against New Zealand and Australia, the day is already being dubbed ‘Hard Hat Saturday’. No wonder.
But within the small details of their latest Test matches, Ireland’s 9-21 loss to New Zealand and England’s 58-15 destruction of Fiji, lies the second important factor, one which both countries would do well to address and improve.
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Ireland went down to the All Blacks despite enjoying an astonishing territory percentage advantage of 70-30% and a superiority in possession of 66-34%. Now I know that statistics can be twisted and turned to prop up or destroy any scenario. But it is hard to argue with these. From them, it follows that Ireland should have won the match.
One important reason why they didn’t comes from another statistic. For all their dominance of the ball and position on the field, Ireland managed just seven offloads in the entire game. The reason New Zealand survived this onslaught was that time and again, the Irish ball carrier went to ground, rather than maintaining continuity through offloads.
By contrast, New Zealand, starved for so long of ball and forced to defend, still achieved 15 offloads. This is their style, their mantra.
At Twickenham, England ran in a remarkable nine tries against the blitzed Fijians. Yet astonishingly, England managed only six offloads. The Fijians achieved 17.
Now some will carp at the value I put on these specific statistics. They will sneer and say ‘England scored nine tries. Ireland had the All Blacks on the rack for much of the game in Dublin and beat them in Chicago. What are you on about’?
What I am on about is critical to the Lions chances in New Zealand next year. For the fact is, in this day and age, you only rupture completely a top class rugby nation’s defence if you can maintain momentum in an attack.
Ireland failed in Dublin because by going to ground so often with the ball, New Zealand’s highly structured defence had time to re-align. Inevitably, it was under serious and sustained pressure but that wasn’t enough. Ireland couldn’t free the ball from the breakdown quickly enough to find gaps in the defensive line and score tries.
Sure, England overran Fiji. But they’re not going to run around a defence as good as New Zealand’s nine times to score tries.
New Zealand has built its world supremacy on many factors, but one of the most crucial is their ability to keep the ball alive, to commit tacklers but free the ball in the same instant. Do that often enough and the defence will simply run out of numbers. This is as certain as day follows night.
If teams don’t do this, they will end up aping Ireland at the weekend – waves and waves of attacks ending up without reward.
New Zealand proved the point right at the start in Dublin, keeping the ball for 183 seconds, constantly freeing it from tackles, moving the point of the attack until the defence eventually just ran out of numbers.
None of this is rocket science, of course. But the fact remains, both Ireland and England have to improve on such dismal offload statistics if they are to prosper against the best.
Comments on RugbyPass
NZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
22 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
22 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
22 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
22 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
9 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
9 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
28 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
22 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
28 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
22 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
90 Go to comments