Paul The Super Rugby Oracle's Round 17 Tips: How The Highlanders Will Top The NZ Conference
Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
9/9. After 15 weeks of near misses Paul finally produced a perfect set of predictions in Round 16 for what is known as an Oracular Spectacular. With just one round remaining his record now stands at 97/126 – rocketing his success percentage up two points to to 77%. Not bad, but this week’s host of tough picking match ups still has the potential to make or break Paul’s season.
Blues vs Waratahs
The first of three matches in New Zealand this weekend is likely to be the least intense, and yet it should still be a ripper of a game. The Waratahs must have watched what happened to the Brumbies last Friday when they wheeled out a boring attacking plan and were unable to change it. The Waratahs attack isn’t much better, although Michael Hooper often gets things going in the right direction. Trouble is, he’s one man and the Blues have a number playing in that sort of form at the moment. I reckon the Blues are going to give the Waratahs the same as they gave the Brumbies, and that means the Brumbies will get a free pass to the playoffs.
Pick: Blues (13 and over)
Reds vs Rebels
Both teams were horrible last week, and both are counting down the hours until the end of the season – a Friday game is a win for both of them. Since I have to make a pick, I’m going to take the Rebels because they at least have some idea of what to do with the football.
Pick: Rebels (12 and under)
Sharks vs Sunwolves
This is an important game for the Sharks, and they couldn’t have asked for a softer opponent. The Sunwolves won’t be able to compete with the Sharks punishing defence, and they’ll leave gaps for the big Sharks midfielders to run through. The Durban crowd should be able to relax and enjoy the win – and book tickets for Johannesburg if they want to follow their favourites in the playoffs.
Pick: Sharks (13 and over)
Crusaders vs Hurricanes
Whoever planned this schedule has, either by good luck or good management, got the last weekend bang on in New Zealand. With nobody sure yet of their final placing, the Crusaders have first chance to stake a claim for top spot. They’ll need to win this one and, possibly, win it well to put pressure on the Chiefs. But despite the colossal win over the Rebels, I’m not convinced they can. The Crusaders have been flawless in dealing to overseas teams this year (4-0 against South African conference teams, 5-0 against Australian sides) but they’ve had real trouble with the New Zealand teams and have only two hard-fought wins over the Blues to show from five games. Therefore, I have to rate them fourth of the New Zealand sides with the Hurricanes above them; they tend to get pushed into an east-west game by local teams despite the large number of big names and it happens every time. The Hurricanes can defend against what they’ll get on Saturday easily enough; they got much the same from the Waratahs last week, and they have game-breakers who will do more damage than their opposites. I’m picking the Hurricanes in this one – it will be close of course – but that doesn’t mean the Chiefs will be handed the conference title on a plate.
Pick: Hurricanes (12 and under)
Highlanders vs Chiefs
Almost immediately after the dust settles in Christchurch we go south for one of the best match-ups of recent times. The last half-dozen or so of these matches have been outstanding quality, and under the roof at Forsyth Barr Stadium I have no reason to doubt we’ll get another. Given the way both sides have played in recent weeks – taking chances, pushing passes, trying it on – it’s quite likely that the ball will zing up and down the pitch at breakneck speed and chances will come reasonably frequently. Both sides have been a bit careless with their handling recently (the Highlanders are the worse offenders) but both can open defences seemingly at will when they get it together. The atmosphere will be electric, of course, and I image the ‘House Full’ signs will be out long before kickoff. As for a winner … I’m going Highlanders here, simple because they seem to know how to play against the Chiefs. I’m not quite sure what it is, but they tend to save their best games of the season for the Hamilton mob. And that may mean that, against all odds, the Highlanders top the New Zealand conference.
Pick: Highlanders (12 and under)
Brumbies vs Force
The Brumbies will already know what they have to do in this game – match whatever the Waratahs took out of the Eden Park game on Friday. If the Waratahs have lost, the Brumbies will have virtually been handed the conference title as they hold the tie-break (most wins). They will win this one, though, and no matter what happens on Friday the Brumbies, limited though they may be, will win the Australian conference.
Pick: Brumbies (13 and over)
Stormers vs Kings
The Stormers will win by as much as they want to. The Kings can’t wait for Sunday morning.
Pick: Stormers (13 and over)
Cheetahs vs Bulls
By the time this game kicks off the result will be academic, as the Sharks will have battered the Sunwolves and taken the last playoff spot. So it will be up to individual pride as to how much effort the teams put in; I’d imagine there will be plenty of huff and puff but not a lot of actual scoring because error counts will cripple both teams. The Cheetahs make more as a rule of thumb, so the Bulls should win an irrelevant game.
Pick: Bulls (12 and under)
Jaguares vs Lions
The Lions have to win this match to top the standings and ensure home field through the playoffs. They should do that without any trouble – even if it rains we’re not talking about conditions the Lions haven’t mastered this year and they are the superior team in any phase of the game you care to examine. If you hadn’t realised already, the road to the title will run through Ellis Park this year.
Pick: Lions (13 and over)
Comments on RugbyPass
I think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to commentsWe had during the week twilight footy, twilight cricket, tw golf plus there was the athletics club. Then the weekend was rugby 15s plus the net ball, really busy club scene back then but so much has changed and rugby has suffered. And it was all about changing lifestyles.
6 Go to commentsIn the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getting to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
6 Go to commentsROG’s contract is until 2027. The conversation about a successor to Galthie after RWC 2027 may be starting now. We can infer that Galthie’s reign stops then. He is throwing the Irish Coaching Job angle in because he is Irish. The next Irish coach MUST be Leo Cullen. As well as being the best coach available, coaching the vast majority of Irish Internationals week in week out, he has shown incredible skill at recruiting the best coaching staff for the job in hand. That was a failing in France. Cullen is a shrewd guy and if there is a need for foreign coaches underneath him he won’t hesitate. Rightly so. Ireland does need to start to bring Irish coaches through. Not just at the professional level but we need to train coaches to man new pathways for developing kids from schools/clubs up through the divisions.
8 Go to commentsNo Islam says it must rule where it stands Thus it is to be deleted from this planet Earth
18 Go to commentsThis team probably does not beat the ABs sadly Not sure if BPA will be available given his signing for Force but has to enter consideration. Very strong possibility of getting schooled by the AB props. Advantage AB. Rodda/Skelton would be a tasty locking combination - would love to see how they get on. Advantage Wallabies. Backrow a risk of getting out hustled and outmuscled by ABs. Will be interesting to see if the Blues feast on the Reds this weekend the way they did the Brumbies we are in big trouble at the breakdown. Great energy, running and defence but goalkicking/general kicking/passing quality in the halves bothers me enormously. SA may have won the World Cup for a lot of the tournament without a recognised goalkicker but Pollard in the final made a difference IMO. Injuries and retirements leave AB stocks a bit lighter but still stronger. 12 and 13 ABs shade it (Barret > Paisami, Ione = Ikitau, arguably) Interesting clash of styles on the wings - Corey Toole running around Caleb Clark and Caleb running over the top of Toole. Reece vs Koro probably the reverse. Pretty even IMO. 15s Kelleway = Love See advantage to ABs man for man, but we are not obviously getting slaughtered anywhere which makes a nice change. Think talent wise we are pretty even and if our cohesion and teamwork is better than the ABs then its just about doable.
11 Go to commentsCompletely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
6 Go to comments1.97m and 105Kg? Proportionately, probably skinnier than me at 1.82 and 82kilos. He won’t survive against the big guys at that weight.
55 Go to commentsThe value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
8 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
11 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
61 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
11 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
61 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
8 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
61 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
55 Go to comments