NZ Conference Pre-Season Odds: Will the Blues Ever Stop Being Useless?

This year’s Super Rugby is confusing at the best of times. There are two Groups, one from Australasia and another from Africa, an extremely convoluted schedule, a new team that’s pretty much the Argentinian national team, a Japanese side that holds its home games in Singapore, and an inexplicable lack of live animal mascots.

A full explainer is here, but to get your bearings on the competition, the main thing to focus on is the conferences. There are four of them – Australia, New Zealand, Africa 1, and Africa 2 – and the winner of each will be rewarded with home field advantage in the quarter-finals. For our pre-season odds, we decided to rank the teams in those conferences by how good they’re going to be, and where they’re likely to end up at the end of the season.

New Zealand Conference

Chiefs: TAB odds $6.50 to win competition, favourite.

I’m a bit surprised that the Chiefs are outright favourites this year, because they’ve lost a heap of top-class players from last year’s side and not gained much beyond good ITM Cup players in return. They have got three All Blacks, including Aaron Cruden, back from long-term injury but have lost three new signings to the MASH tent before the season even starts. The Chiefs will be good, there’s no doubt about that, and even with the convoluted playoff qualification system they’ll breeze into the eight. I just wonder how much those losses – they’ve had more than any other New Zealand side – will affect the team’s ability to go the full 17 weeks at top speed.

After 17 weeks the Chiefs will be: Right in the thick of the playoff action.

Crusaders: TAB odds $8.50 to win competition, equal 5th favourite.

For the first time in many years the Crusaders are not favourites to win, and that’s fair enough. They haven’t actually won it for years now, but it’s the retirement of Richie McCaw and Daniel Carter’s relocation overseas that has probably swayed the punters. There will still be plenty of good ‘uns in the red-and-black machine but maybe the opposition might play the man and not the reputation a little more now. The obvious hole is at first-five, where Richie Mo’unga gets first shot at the position, but others would look at the back-ups in the engine room and the scoring punch out wide as additional areas of concern. Look for the Crusaders to be right in the mix – when did you ever see a bad team from down Christchurch way on Todd Blackadder’s watch? – but winning the overall title might be a bridge too far.

After 17 weeks the Crusaders will be: Either the last team to make the cut or the last to miss it.

Blues: TAB odds $17 to win competition, 10th favourite.

Given the Blues’ struggles of the past three or four years, a lowly rating is understandable. Personnel losses far outweigh gains over the off-season, and there are a lot of young and relatively inexperienced players in the squad. There are also a lot of guys who have stood out at ITM Cup level, but this will obviously be harder and we might find out a thing or two about some during the season. The Blues’ biggest problem is still the 9-10-12 axis; they need to settle on a combination and stick with it; if that happens and the combination fires those big, powerful backs might be influential. The Blues’ other problem is simply the conference they’re in, as the other four New Zealand teams all look stronger.

After 17 weeks the Blues will be: Closer than they were in 2015 but still on the outside looking in.

Highlanders: TAB odds $8.50 to win competition, equal 5th favourite.

I’m not sure how much more the Highlanders have to do to convince punters they’re the real deal. I would have thought winning a semi and then a final on the road – something that has only been done once before – and keeping the heart of the team that achieved that notable feat intact might have done it. It did, sort of. The Highlanders are no longer on a double-digit line, but they’re still behind two other New Zealand sides and equal with another, so they haven’t won too many converts. One indication of how the Highlanders seem to slip under the radar is that Aaron Smith won no awards at the NZRU gong-fest in 2015, yet everyone agreed he was one of the very best players in the world. Any team that has two superstars named Smith shouldn’t have ego problems, and those two go a long way towards assuring that happy state. There was a lot to like about what they did last year, and no reason to expect it won’t be done again this season; I’m picking the Highlanders to go deep again in 2016.

After 17 weeks the Highlanders will be: Making a strong run at defending their title, and worrying everyone else.

Hurricanes: TAB odds $7.50 to win competition, 2nd favourite.

Last year I couldn’t understand why the Hurricanes were so highly favoured, and they made me look a bit silly. This year I can’t understand their high ranking since they’ve lost a bunch of experience and gained virtually nothing above good ITM Cup players. Ma’a Nonu’s best-ever Super Rugby season in 2015 was something of a wildcard but it was vital to the team’s fortunes.; He’s not there this season. Neither is Conrad Smith nor Jeremy Thrush, two guys who could keep the beat going. The Hurricanes didn’t really draft that well a year ago and the squad is still very thin on experience below the top XV; if blokes like TJ Perenara and Nehe Milner-Skudder are shut down, 2016 might be a long year. The forwards were better than expected in 2015 but now face the task of backing that up, which I suspect may be a bridge too far. The ‘Canes will be good, but I don’t think they’ll be back in the final.

After 17 weeks the Hurricanes will be: Filling whichever space the Crusaders didn’t get. They may make it or may just miss.