Some improbable predictions for The Rugby Championship
With 2018’s iteration of the southern hemisphere’s highest level of rugby competition set to kick off this weekend, we take a look at some events you might have to look forward to in this year’s Rugby Championship.
Richie Mo’unga to be thrown in the deep end
Steve Hansen and the other All Blacks coaches have been fairly consistent with easing new players onto the international stage. Excepting a few prodigious talents here and there, most newer caps have been given a handful of minutes off the bench before being thrust into a starting position.
One particularly notable exception to this occurred in 2015, the year of the last Rugby World Cup, when Lima Sopoaga was given the reins in his debut match – after he had only come into the squad as an injury replacement for Aaron Cruden.
Starting debuts aren’t always going to be nerve-wracking – not if you’re playing at home against one of the lower ranked teams in the world – but Sopoaga was thrust into the spotlight in one of the toughest places to play in world rugby, Johannesburg, against a Springboks team rearing from a close loss to the Wallabies in the previous week.
Richie Mo’unga’s exceptional form for the Crusaders has seen him come into discussions regarding who should be leading the All Blacks’ backline – and whilst Hansen has suggested that Barrett is still seen as the leading first five in the squad, it would not be a shock to see Mo’unga be given the playmaker duties in one of the tougher Rugby Championship matches.
We’ll likely see a very settled 23 selected to begin with, but seeing Mo’unga named at 10 for one of the bigger matches later in the tournament wouldn’t be surprising.
Reece Hodge to emerge as the Wallabies’ first choice centre
Samu Kerevi has slowly locked down the 13 position in the Wallabies backline in the last year, but when injury struck him down in late June it was expected that Tevita Kuridrani would slot into his place on the team sheet. Kuridrani was previously the first choice centre for the Wallabies for a number of years and offered a very similar replacement option for coach Michael Cheika.
Of course, the one thing you can count in rugby is injuries in positions where you can least afford them. So it was, that Kuridrani tore a muscle in the Brumbies’ final match of the Super Rugby season – an effective dead rubber against the Waratahs – and removed any chance of him taking Kerevi’s place.
Arguably the Wallabies’ most versatile player, Reece Hodge, has now ostensibly been given the job of plugging the midfield and keeping the Wallabies firing. Hodge has spent time in almost every backline position for Australia in his three years with the team, and in the recent match against an Australian Super Rugby selection is what Hodge who was handed the 13 jersey.
Hodge’s international experience means he’s preferred over the likes of newcomers such as Billy Meakes and Curtis Rona, and his flexibility and adaptability mean that’s he’s an automatic selection at least somewhere in the Wallabies 23.
Of most interest is the fact that Hodge offers a considerably different playstyle to injured teammates Kerevi and Kuridrani – his kicking ability is exceptional both in terms of placement and distance and he has a knack for getting the ball to players in space. He’s also much less likely to try winning a one on one with opposition players but is still excellent at getting over the gain line.
Hodge will almost certainly start at centre when the Wallabies host the All Blacks in Sydney for the first Bledisloe Cup match of 2018 – but even once Kuridrani and Kerevi become available later in the season, it will be Hodge who Cheika entrusts with the 13 jersey.
Argentina to lose all their matches
Since Argentina joined The Rugby Championship in 2012, they have finished dead last in the competition in every season except 2015, when they recorded a home win against South Africa. In many of those seasons, the Pumas picked up a draw or a victory – but they have been few and far between.
The recent success of the Jaguares in Super Rugby would suggest that Argentinian rugby is on the rise, but the Pumas’ restrictive selection means fruits are unlikely to be bore at the international level. Argentina have been on a downward slide in recent times and ex-coach Daniel Hourcade has paid the price, with new coach Mario Ledesma now given the tough job of turning around the team’s fortunes.
New staff often breathes fresh life into sports teams – and no doubt we will see this with Argentina in the coming years, but this upcoming Rugby Championship is unlikely to give Puma’s fans much reason for immediate optimism. Expect to see Argentina start the competition on the back foot from day one, and a flogging is on the cards when the All Blacks visit Buenos Aires in round five.
The competition to be decided in the last round
The All Blacks have started The Rugby Championship as firm favourites in the last few years and 2018 is no different. We’ve seen New Zealand whitewash the competition in the last two years – but maybe this season will be a little different.
Argentina aside, the competition looks to be considerably stronger than in recent years. Australia have a settled squad with game changers in the form of David Pocock, Michael Hooper, Will Genia, Kurtley Beale and Israel Folau. The nature of The Rugby Championship means that the Wallabies always start off on the wrong foot because they always play the All Blacks in the first two weeks of the competition – but this year they’ve tried to get in a bit more practice beforehand with their hit out against the Super Rugby selection.
The first Bledisloe will be a titanic battle – and until recent years, when the Wallabies have been at their weakest for a long time, Sydney has traditionally not been a prosperous hunting ground for the All Blacks.
Equally as important is the fact that the Springboks have genuine class all over the park and an astute coach in Rassie Erasmus. Whilst their top team may not be quite as established as the All Blacks’ or the Wallabies’, they unquestionably have enough talent to win against anyone on a good day. With young, thirsty wings on the outsides and experienced grunt up front in the form of Malcolm Marx, Eben Etzebeth and Francois Louw, the final round of the competition where South Africa hosts New Zealand in Pretoria will be an absolute thriller.
For the sake of the competition and for the sake of world rugby as a whole, South Africa and Australia need to stand up to New Zealand – and in 2018 they may well have the firepower to do so.
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Comments on RugbyPass
Lets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
10 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
10 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
6 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to comments