'If we're trying to attract people to rugby, surely providing stats that we know are impactful is the way forward'
Six Nations 2019 is on course to fail to break the one million attendance mark for the fourth season in succession – the crowd of only 60,000 at the France-Wales opener, down 18,688 on the same Paris fixture in 2017, is firm evidence.
However, French people voting with their feet and staying away from a stadium can’t disguise how Test rugby is enjoying northern spring bounce just now.
An 8.2 million peak audience watched Ireland-England on British terrestrial TV along with a 1.45 million peak viewing on an Irish channel. Those are giddy numbers for rugby in a year culminating with the fascinating World Cup in Japan.
The trick will be to keep floating viewers fully tuned in. Rugby will never be as easily understood as football, which revelled in a 26.5 million peak UK TV audience watching England’s World Cup semi-final last July against Croatia. But it’s currently not helping itself to be better understood.
I’m told 8.2 million people tuned in for Ireland V England. 8.2 million reasons to keep the Six Nations on terrestrial TV.
— Nick Mullins (@andNickMullins) February 4, 2019
There is some hugely subjective punditry. Look at how Wales were criticised at half-time for training too much indoors at Vale of Glamorgan and struggling with the Parisian rain. This watery assertion was washed away with a successful second-half comeback.
More pressingly, the sport is seemingly drowning in an avalanche of statistics often lacking sufficient context. Numbers are no longer limited to obvious categories such as penalties conceded and lineouts won and lost. Now you can access a seven-page, jargon-filled post-mortem for every Six Nations match.
Its detail is exhausting. Numbers on everything from hit-up efficiency, to dominant tackles, to ruck speed 0-3 seconds, to a player’s ruck arrival on both sides of the ball. On and on it goes. Fair enough if you have a forensic interest in rugby, but what about simplifying this for the fan who only sporadically tunes in for the big games and can’t quite make sense of it all?
Kevin McLaughlin suggests Kitman Labs might have the solution. The former Ireland back row is now vice-president of the Dublin-founded sports science and analytics company that is contracted by a whole host of teams.
Their roster includes Joe Schmidt’s Ireland, the four Irish provinces, five Premiership clubs including heavy-hitters Saracens, all South Africa’s national sides and the Lions, Sharks and Cheetahs, Conor O’Shea’s Italy and their two PRO14 teams, and the New Zealand Hurricanes.
They are also in talks with some tournaments to provide an insightful stream of statistics to better help the fans. “We’ve been approached by a couple of elite tournaments across the rugby world and one big league body in football,” he reveals. “What they are interested in is what we do with teams, identifying what teams need to do on the pitch from a statistical standpoint to give them the best chance of winning.
“TV companies are trying to push out as much statistics as they can to engage consumers more, but they have hit a bit of a wall somewhat. They are pushing out a million and one statistics without knowing which is the most important one.
“What we’re doing is running a way more simple version than we do for teams to allow these leagues understand what the key performance indicators are for their league, stack-ranking the teams, stack-ranking each individual in the teams, stack-ranking the positions, setting up a top trumps leaderboard for different players.
“We’re working to improve the content for a big European rugby league at the moment on that… we’d like to think (it will happen) for the start of next season. A couple of league we are talking to want to make it happen. They are just figuring out commercial arrangements with us now.”
Offering insight is the ambition of Kitman, the business founded in 2012 by some employees at Leinster, the province who were the first rugby team in the northern hemisphere to use GPS on players in 2006.
“Pushing statistics out is interesting in itself,” continues McLaughlin, who retired from playing following concussion in September 2015. “So if I made 10 tackles and you made eight carries and maybe down to some level of details like in Champions League football, this guy ran nine kilometres, those statistics are interesting to a point but my philosophy would be, so what?
“Just because someone made nine or 10 tackles, what does that actually mean? How has that influenced performance? How has that influenced a team’s ability to win or lose? For me that is what is interesting. If we’re trying to attract more and more people to the game of rugby, surely providing impact statistics to tell interesting stories that are not obvious to the untrained eye is the way forward?
“If we know how strong, fast and agile the best wingers in the competition need to be able to run at whatever it is, nine-and-a-half metres a second, we can use analytics to determine how this couples with the technical actions in games that will influence a team’s chance of winning.
“If we have statistics of how fast they run in a game and also know that the best wingers need to be able to cover a certain amount of distance and catch a certain amount of balls to give their team the best chance of winning in that specific tournament, now that is fascinating.
“Then you’re looking at a league table of the four wingers who have played in a game and who have influenced the team that won or not. Right now you have got so many subjective opinions. There was a lot of opinions going around that Robbie Henshaw was out of position all day the other week, that he had a big impact on Ireland not winning but who actually knows? That is hugely subjective.
Very excited for this year's event! https://t.co/Ic2Mbnq0Mw
— Kevin McLaughlin (@KMcLaughlin6) January 25, 2019
“Outside of Joe Schmidt, Andy Farrell and Eddie Jones who spend four or five days with huge expertise analysing every last moment of a game 10 times, it’s really, really hard for punters to know what matters and what doesn’t.
“My philosophy would be there needs to be a statistical approach to try and understand what matters and what doesn’t, and in order to do that you need to take an understanding of what the key performance indicators of the game are.
“Scoring points at the end of the day is really what the consumers care about, so what are the actions that influence a team’s ability to score points and what are the actions that lead to a team conceding points? For me, as a consumer now, that is what is fascinating.
“I know now that my back row, my No6, needs to make on average five impact tackles in a game to give my team an 80 per cent chance of winning or higher. Now that is something that would be really interesting to me as a consumer.
“I think anyone can associate with that and now suddenly everyone cares about that metric because they know it’s important. But right now everyone is going England made lots of impact tackles against Ireland, but did it matter? Probably, but I don’t actually know.
“Data and statistics can be problematic as well as useful and a lot of what we are doing at Kitman is ensuring the data is used to improve decision making, improve athlete welfare, improve athlete performance because a lot of teams today are drowning in data and are not exactly sure how to use it to make better decisions. As a result it’s not delivering any value for them.
“A million and one statistics can be collected and if you’re making decisions on all of them, you’re going to end up chasing your tail. Try and focus on the most important statistic at any given time, that is what we are trying to deliver to teams.”
McLaughlin has travelled extensively in recent years meeting a variety of coaches across a variety of sports, but Schmidt, whom he worked under for three years at Leinster and one with Ireland, remains his stand-out example of someone who can instinctively separate the wheat from the chaff.
“I don’t see why rugby can’t be the leader in terms of statistics for consumers. It’s an incredible technical, tactical game and there are really, really clear actions in games that either lead to a team’s chance winning or losing.
“What makes Joe Schmidt so good is he has that tactical, statistical understanding probably better than anybody I have ever met just naturally. He understands what those winning actions are and he coaches them extremely well.
“That didn’t come across against England. There are blips on the road, but statistics are becoming more and more interesting and more and more important as the margins between the top teams become smaller and smaller.”
“Joe has an incredible ability to see opportunities where other people don’t see opportunities. Between him and Johnny (Sexton), and some of the leaders in the team, they have a pretty incredible ability to expose weakness and Joe has been doing it as a coach the last 10 years. Every team that comes into a game says Joe is going to have some play to try and expose weakness.
“Now it doesn’t always work. Sometimes Ireland just need to grind it out and Joe has a nice mix between coming up with opportunities and exposing teams’ weaknesses versus just really good, clean statistically-driven rugby. He will know that offloading in your own half generally doesn’t lead to good outcomes.
“Offloading is allowed but only when there is a very high chance that there is a high quality offload. And keeping possession for a certain amount of phases is way more likely to lead to a penalty… all those different elements are more likely to lead to a win.
“Joe has got an innate understanding of what it takes for his team to win games. He then works with the leaders on that and comes up with a really strong philosophy on the type of rugby the Irish team should be playing. That is what gives Ireland an incredible chance going into the World Cup.”
Comments on RugbyPass
“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
3 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
2 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
3 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
3 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
3 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
2 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
4 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to commentsJake White is a brilliant coach and a master in the press. This is another masterclass in media relations and PR but its also a very narrow view with arguments that dont always hold water. White wants his team to win, he wants the best players in SA and wants his team competitive. You however have to face up to the reality of a poor exchange rate and big clubs with big budgets. SA Rugby cant compete and unless it can find more money SA players will keep leaving regardless of Springbok eligibility and this happened in 2015 - 2017. Also rugby is not cricket. Cricket has 3 formats and T20 cricket is where the money is at. When it comes to club vs country the IPL is king but that wont happen because the international calendar does not clash with the club calendar in rugby. So the argument about rugby going down the same path as cricket is really a non-starter
22 Go to commentsNZ rugby seem not to have learnt anything from professional rugby. Super rugby was dying and SA left before they died with the competition. SA rugby did a u turn on their approach to international players playing overseas and such players are now selected for Bok teams. As much as each country would love to retain their players playing in local competitions, this is the way the world is evolving my friends. Move with it or stay 20 years behind the times. One more thing. NZ rugby hierarchy think they are the big cheese. Take a more humble approach guys. You do not seem to have your players best interests at heart.
3 Go to commentsBeaches? In Cardiff? Where?
1 Go to commentsHe is right , the Crusaders will be a threat. Scott Barrett, ( particularly), Fergus Burke , Codie Taylor, ( from sabbatical) etc due back soon for the Crusaders. There are others like Zach Gallagher too. People can right the Crusaders off, Top 8 , here we come !!
1 Go to commentsWe will always struggle for money to match the other sides but the least the WRU can do is invest properly in Welsh rugby. Too much has been squandered on vanity projects like the hotel and roof walk amongst others which will never see a massive return. Hanging the 4 pro sides out to dry over the last decade is now coming back to bite the WRU financially as well as on the pitch. You reap what you sow.
1 Go to commentsWhat do you get if you cross a doctor with a fish? A plastic sturgeon
14 Go to commentsWhat happened to feleti Kaitu’u? Hasnt played in a while right?
1 Go to commentsGregor I just can’t agree with you. You are trying to find something that just isn’t there. Jordie Barrett has signed until 2028. By the end of that he would have spent probably 11-12 years on Super Rugby and you say he can’t possibly have one season playing somewhere else. It is absurd. What about this scenario, the NZR play hard ball and he decides to leave and play overseas. How would that affect the competition. There seems to be an agenda by certain journalists to push certain agendas and don’t like it when it’s not to their liking. I fully support the NZR on this. Gregor needs to get a life.
3 Go to commentsHope he stays as believe he can do a great job.
1 Go to comments