How does Eddie Jones fill the Maro Itoje void against France?
Coming into Le Crunch week, it seems as though Eddie Jones and England have the relative luxury of only needing to make one change to the side that triumphed in Dublin last weekend.
England beat the reigning Grand Slam champions Ireland 32-20 in a highly-impressive display on Saturday afternoon, with the only real negative to come out of the contest a potentially Six Nations-ending injury for Maro Itoje.
The Saracens lock suffered a tear in his medial ligament and various prognoses have him, at best, making it back just in time for the final game of the championship against Scotland, whilst others have him out until Saracens’ Heineken Champions Cup quarter-final with Glasgow Warriors. Either way, the talismanic second row is certainly out for this weekend’s game against France, as well as the upcoming challenges of Wales and Italy.
Who, then, should Jones turn to, to partner George Kruis in England’s engine room? Barring an unlikely scenario whereby a called-up player from outside of the initial Six Nations squad goes straight into the XV, the options are two-fold, Courtney Lawes or Joe Launchbury.
There are compelling cases for both, but as the man who was involved in the 23 against Ireland, we’ll start with Lawes.
He delivers in a number of the same areas as Itoje, most notably with the line-speed he brings in defence and with his ability to hunt down the ball on opposition lineout throws. Add into the mix his defensive reads and his ability to make momentum-shifting solo tackles behind the gain-line – a few of which he was able to connect with during his 28-minute shift in Dublin – and you have a player that helps England achieve the same dynamism in defence that Itoje does.
As for Launchbury, the case for starting the Wasps man leans heavily on his work rate and conditioning. Launchbury is a player that will be giving as much in the 75th minute as he is in the 10th minute, and by bringing him off the bench, likely for a 20-to-30-minute spell, you take away his engine being a decisive factor on the pitch. He also chips in at the contact area, bringing some of the predatory fetching work that Itoje does so well.
The RugbyPass Index backs up these assertions, with Lawes’ lineout steal rating of 91 far outstripping Launchbury’s mark of 29. They are both matched evenly on lineout takes, a rating of how good they are on their own ball, with scores of 83.
One of the more interesting nuggets from the RPI has been the influence score of the two players. In seasons gone by, Launchbury would have been thought of as the more influential attacking player of the two, but currently Lawes’ influence score, which charts involvement in the build-up to winning moments, sits at 86, whilst Launchbury’s is at 64.
If you factor in Launchbury’s recent injury and Wasps’ struggles in general, which provide some necessary context, it explains the size of that differential, but it also speaks to the more well-rounded offensive game that Lawes has developed over the last couple of seasons.
In terms of a like-for-like option, who will bring the defensive intensity, set-piece dynamism and momentum plays, Lawes seems the more suitable option to start against France. He showed up well off the bench against Ireland and his ability to stop Les Bleus at source, whether that be the lineout or getting to ball-carriers behind the gain-line, would be key to preventing them from getting their power game going.
There is an argument that Lawes offers more impact than Launchbury, and therefore would bring better balance to the England side by coming off the bench in an attempt to change a game going badly, but it is better to go into a game with the intent of trying to win it from the off, rather than having to chase a game in the final quarter.
On current form and given the skills England have lost through Itoje’s injury, the balance of power would seem to be with Lawes heading into Le Crunch, but Jones has never been afraid of making bold selection calls in the past.
Watch: Jonny May and Mako Vunipola speak to RugbyPass after the win in Dublin
Comments on RugbyPass
Completely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
3 Go to comments1.97m and 105Kg? Proportionately, probably skinnier than me at 1.82 and 82kilos. He won’t survive against the big guys at that weight.
54 Go to commentsThe value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
3 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
10 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
54 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
10 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
54 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
3 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
54 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
54 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
54 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
54 Go to commentsI’m a pensioner so I've been around a bit. My opinion of SBW is he is an elite athlete and a great New Zealander and roll model. He has been to the top and knows what he's talking about. To all the negative comments regarding SBW the typical New Zealand way, cut that tall poppy down.
17 Go to commentsI'm not listening to a guy moralise over others when this is the guy who walked out mid season on Canterbury RLFC when he had a contract with them, what a hypocrite. All the Kiwis sticking up for this unprincipled individual because they can't accept justified criticism, he has zero credibility or integrity. Those praising him are a joke.
17 Go to commentsI’d put Finau at 6 instead of Blackadder but that’s the only change I’d make. Can’t wait to see who Razor picks.
54 Go to commentsTamati Williams, Codie Taylor, and Same Cane? Not sure about Hoskins Sotutu at test level. Wasn’t that impressive last season. Need a balance between experience and talent/youth.
54 Go to commentsInteresting insight. Fantastic athlete, and a genuine human being.
17 Go to comments