Historic defeat not out of the question for All Blacks as blue wave looms large
The All Blacks hold the honour of being the sole side to have never suffered defeat during the pool stages of a Rugby World Cup but if events from the past six months are anything to go by, that could change.
Throughout the nine iterations of the global competition, only once has New Zealand not progressed through to the semi-finals – and that’s thanks to France’s shock victory in Cardiff in 2007. While the likes of England, South Africa and Australia have always competed well at the World Cup, sharing six titles between them, they’ve all been handed defeats during the group stages of the tournament – and England even suffered the ignominy of missing out on the sudden-death matches at their home tournament in 2015 after slipping up against both Australia and Wales.
Such an event is unlikely to unfold for New Zealand at next year’s World Cup in France, of course. The All Blacks boast an impeccable record against teams outside the traditional rugby superpowers and of the nations that were seeded into the third band for the 2023 tournament (i.e. the sides that finished third in their pools at the last competition) – Scotland, Argentina, Fiji and Italy – NZ have tasted defeat on just one occasion. As it so happens, NZ again share a pool with the Azzurri (for the seventh time), who have never really come close to tipping over the men in black.
But while missing out on the quarter-finals is all but out of the question for the All Blacks, there are no guarantees that they’ll escape unbeaten from the pool stages for the 10th time in succession and that’s thanks to the incredible form shown by France coupled with some middling performances from NZ.
France have long been earmarked as an up-and-coming team thanks to their run of successes at the Under 20s World Championship. The Baby Blues finished fourth at the 2017 tournament before taking out the top prize in the two years following.
The top players from those campaigns – the likes of Jean-Baptiste Gros, Demba Bamba, Cameron Woki, Romain Ntamack – are now mainstays in the national squad, linking up with other former age-grade stars such as Julien Marchand, Romain Taofifenua and Antoine Dupont and while it hasn’t all been smooth sailing over the past two-and-a-half years, it’s not been hard to see that Fabien Galthie has been growing something special in La Republique.
While exceptional wins haven’t been hard to come by for Galthie’s men, there have also been some unexpected losses and despite often looking the best team in the various competitions they’ve competed in since the 2019 World Cup, France hadn’t managed to claim any silverware – until now.
A Grand Slam was a fitting reward for a French team that always looked a touch above their opposition throughout this year’s Six Nations championship. While Les Bleus weren’t always exceptional, they did everything needed to get wins on the board and thanks to their victory over the All Blacks in November, they’ve now bested seven of the nine top rugby-playing nations in the world over the past six months – and it would take a brave man to bet against them securing a clean sweep by the end of the year, with matches scheduled against both Australia and South Africa in November.
Which brings us to 2023 – and a home World Cup no doubt played in front of tens of thousands of raucous French fans.
18 months is admittedly a long period of time and a lot could happen between now and September 8, when France and NZ are set to square off in Saint-Dennis. The Springboks were languishing in the doldrums a year-and-a-half out from the last tournament but Rassie Erasmus managed to transform them from also-rans to world champions while their grand final opposition, England, had finished fifth in the prior year’s Six Nations. On the flip side, Wales, Ireland and Scotland – the top three sides in the 2018 Six nations – failed to impress at the 2019 World Cup with Wales lucky to make it past the quarter-finals, Ireland suffering a hefty defeat at that same stage of the tournament by the All Blacks, and Scotland failing to make it out of their pool (with the latter two sides both going down to Japan during their group encounters).
As such, France could capitulate between now and 2023 tournament while the All Blacks could reverse the sliding form from last year that saw them go down to South Africa, Ireland and France in the latter half of the year.
The smart money, however, would be on France continuing to grow into a world-class superpower while it’s difficult to see NZ achieving a complete 180 over the next 18 months, unless there are some big changes in personnel.
The All Blacks will always boast an aura of success thanks to their decades of accomplishments and the mana that surrounds the team but despite what many’s hearts may say, the head should be picking that France will go into the next World Cup as favourites – and that means they’ll likely boast the shorter odds in the opening game of the competition when they do face off with New Zealand.
It was France who handed the All Blacks their first-ever loss at the quarter-final stages of the 2007 Rugby World Cup and it could be Les Bleus who again hand New Zealand an historic defeat in 2023.
Comments on RugbyPass
I do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
4 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
27 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
2 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
3 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to commentsFinn Russell logic: “World” = 4 countries. Ireland may be at or near the top. FR’s bigger concern should be he and his fellow Scots (incl. the Bloemfontein ones) sliding back down to below top 10
42 Go to commentsMind games have begun. Ireland learned their lesson after saying they could beat England with 13 players or whatever. Still, if they win at Loftus, that would be impressive - final frontier etc.
58 Go to comments$950k for a Prop that isn’t fit enough to play 10 mins of rugby? Surely there is someone better to replace Big Mike with
3 Go to commentsFour Kiwis in that backline. A solid statement on the lack of invention, risk-taking and joy in the NH game; game of attrition and head- banging tedium. Longterm medical problems aplenty in the future!
6 Go to commentsGood article, I learnt quite a lot. A big sliding door moment was in the mid 00s when they rejected Steve Anderson's long term transformation and he wrote Ireland's strategy instead.
2 Go to commentsHi Dr Nick! I'm worried that I've started to enjoy watching England and have actually wanted them to win their last two games. What would you prescribe? On a more serious note, I've noticed that the standard of play in March is often better than early February. Do you think this is because of the weather or because the players have been together for longer?
27 Go to commentsMy question in all this brett is who is going to wear the consequences of these actions? Surely just getting the sack isn’t sufficient? A teenager working the till at woolies would probably get taken to court if they took $20 out of the till. You mean to tell me that someone can spend $2.6 million and get away with it? Where was it spent? What companies/people were the beneficiaries etc? How is it just being talked about as an ‘oopsie’ and we all just move on and not a matter of the court for gross negligence, fraud, take your pick…
20 Go to commentslove Manu too but England have relied on him coming back from injury for far too long and not sorted the position with someone else long term . It will be a blessing he has gone . Huge shame he was so injury prone . God speed Manu .
3 Go to commentsI agree with Ben Smith about Brett Cameron. The No. 6 position has to be a monster and a genuine lineout option, like Ollivon, Lawes (now Chessum), Du Toit, etc. The only player who fits that bill right now is Scott Barrett. A fit and fizzing Tuipolotu together with one of the young towers, Sam Darry or Josh Lord, would give Razor the freedom to play Barret at 6.
16 Go to commentsOutstanding article, Graham. Agree with all of it. And enjoy the style of writing too (particularly Grand Slap!).
3 Go to commentsI wouldn't pay a cent for that loafer. He just stands around, waiting for play to come his way. He won't make the Wallabies.
3 Go to commentsGood bit of te reo maori Nic. Or is that Niko or Nikora? On the theme of trees the Oaks v Totara. Game plan would be key. I have one but it would cost you.
27 Go to comments> Shaun Edwards’ You should not have to score 30 points to win a game, as exciting as it is. This statement was surprising to me. It is nonsensical .I guess it is a defence coach speaking. But head coach, defence and attacking coaches all work together. They are inseparable. You score more than the opposition to win. It only needs to be one score. You score whatever the game demands, whatever the opposition demand. You defend whatever it takes. The attack coach needs to be able to clock up 30pts if need be.
27 Go to comments